Weather

Mean temperatures now to mid-next week look near normal.

I always say that one weather event leaves an imprint that impacts the weather like dominoes down the road.  

For example, if you are mild, but we see two heavy snow storms in are area, the tendency will be for the next storms to track farther south due to the cold air of that snow pack being laid down.  You also promote ice in that zone as storms try to track farther south in that colder snow-covered zone, unless you have a much bigger loop in the jet that synoptically forcing it north.

Another example are hurricanes.  Once one goes through, it puts down a trail of upwell cooler weather, so the next storms will track away from that cooler zone.

A cool May lays the imprint & feedback for a more active hurricane season just as a very, very active hurricane season with high ACE (energy index) leads to early season winter cold mid-November to early December.  Again, you have laid the groundwork for a positive feedback.

In this case, we saw historic floods near Kansas to St. Louis to southwestern Indiana to eastern Kentucky which set up a corridor of very wet soil surrounded by dry soil.  Storms tended to re-fire over & over in that wet soil as more moisture was evaporated there.  

As more moisture has evaporated off of that standing water & rich, green vegetation, down stream areas here have therefore had more water & more rainfall to squeeze out.

That corridor of wetness has also held the hot, hot ridge at bay, much like the green belt of vegetation in the Sahal in North Africa.  It has been the difference between peaking at 92-97 & 98-105.  However, heat indices have reached 115.

It took a band of very heavy rainfall nearby & the feedback of that rainfall to bring us heavy rainfall to knock away the 2012 drought & extreme heat in August 2012.

One you sort of wear down a low spot on a muddy gravel road, the tires tend to follow that low spot over & over & make it deeper.....much like the weather pattern.

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The intense, hot ridging will split into three pieces:  one over the Pacific Northwest to Northern Rockies & western Canada, the other over New England & the other still over Texas (where Dallas has seen their second longest rain-free streak back to the late 1800s with near 60 days without measurable rainfall.....multiple sites are in the top five longest stretches of 100 degrees or more for highs).

Precipitation now to mid-next week looks near normal.

Impressive monsoon season will continue in the Desert Southwest with above normal rainfall & flash flooding risk.

As for the August 16-31 period, it looks hotter than normal overall.

The heart of the intensely hot riding will be in the northwestern & northern U.S.  Other hot ridging will occur New England to our area & in the Southeast.

The very robust monsoon will continue keeping part of the Desert Southwest to parts of the High Plains cooler than normal due to rainfall.

So, the overall trend here is still drier than normal.

However, given the strength of that monsoon & favorable MJO octants or phases for western Gulf & eastern Atlantic to Caribbean tropical development, we need to watch for the potential of getting more rainfall than expected.

This would occur if deeper Pacific tropical moisture or remnants of Pacific hurricane &/or Gulf tropical remnants make it up into our area.

The hotter trend should continue into much of September.  It looks drier than normal overall, but the key is TROPICS.  If we see multiple landfalling Gulf systems make it up into our area then the dry outlook is a bust.  

This is tricky as it appears we may really catch up on tropical activity in September with a late start to the tropical season overall.

There is also still a trend for a warmer & wetter than normal October with late leaf color change by 2 to 3 weeks later than normal (like last year).

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So, to break it all down in more detail.......

First, surface cold front will continue to move through the viewing area tonight SLOWLY with lows in the 60s.

Given the fronts very slow movement, we may keep at least some scattered showers & storms going through the night along & south of Highway 18.

Some will linger south of 18 into tomorrow.  Given the fact that some will train over the same area, some locally-heavy rainfall totals of +1.50" are possible.

Farther north, it will tend to be dry with sunshine developing.

With north-northeast to north & north-northwest winds 9-18 mph, highs of 77-81 are expected.

Tomorrow night looks partly cloudy south half, mostly clear north half, with lows 58-65.

As for Wednesday, skies look mostly sunny with north-northwest to northwest wind 10-23 mph.  The humidity looks lower with dew points in the 50s & highs 81-85.

58-63 is likely Wednesday night, followed by skies becoming partly cloudy Thursday.

Dew points will rise to 60-65 with a few isolated storms possible along a cold front.

Winds will be northwest to west shifting to the north late in the day at 15-25 mph.

Highs of 82-87 are expected.

Friday & Saturday look very nice weather-wise with sunshine, nice northwest breezes & highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Lows should run low to mid 50s!

Even Sunday looks pretty good, though clouds will be on the increase as our cold front begins to move back northeastward as a warm front.

Highs near 80 to the lower 80s is expected with wind shift to the northeast & east.  The humidity will remain low.

Monday features lots of clouds with east winds & 80 to the lower 80s, but the rainfall looks to stay west of our area.

The front will slowly lift northeastward Monday night.  New showers/storms will develop upstream on nose of strong nocturnal low-level jet.

It does look like some scattered showers & storms Tuesday, mainly morning to midday, with southeast to east winds & highs 78-83 after 60s in the morning.

The worst of the heat will continue to line up west & southwest of our area.

We should turn much more humid with dew points 70-75 mid-next week with highs 85-88 as wind turns to the south-southwest.

You can see how the current trends point to some of that heat trying to be pulled northeastward.

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