THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AHEAD

Viewer Submitted Photo: Cole Snider

After cooler, less humid weather, it will turn muggy Thursday night-Friday with storms returning. The potential of severe weather appears to be going up, based on the latest analysis.

Posted: Jul. 18, 2018 2:06 PM
Updated: Jul. 18, 2018 2:23 PM

TODAY-THURSDAY:

Today is great with sun & low humidity (81). Tomorrow will be a hair warmer (83), but it will still not be humid as clouds increase & thicken in the afternoon & through the evening.  Part of the area may turn mostly cloudy to cloudy by evening with virga (showers that try to reach the ground, but dry up on the way down).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY EVENING:

Eventually, one main wave of elevated showers/storms will pass tomorrow night to Friday morning (67) with muggy conditions developing as warm front lifts northward.  An isolated hail-producing storm or two is possible as low-level jet noses northeastward, transporting unstable air atop a layer of more stable air near the ground (thus storms are "elevated" or rooted above the boundary layer or lower level to the ground) & noses it underneath fairly cold air aloft.  At the moment, the best potential of large hail (1" in diameter or larger) would be just southwest of us in central & eastern Illinois.

After a break from any storms with the sun appearing Friday & temperatures warming (85) with higher humidity & breezy conditions (S to SW winds 15-25 mph), surface-based storms may rapidly blossom near midday, through afternoon & into the early evening.

I has looked like a pretty widespread, potent severe weather episode would evolve Missouri to southern Illinois & southern Indiana to Kentucky & Tennessee for several days.

HOWEVER, it is looking (at least now) that this corridor of pretty potent, widespread severe weather is expanding northward. It may be a pretty substantial event from our entire viewing area all the way to Kentucky if current trends hold.

Supercells & supercell clusters may rapidly develop in northeastern Illinois & elongate southward like a zipper being un-zipped on a jacket. They may morph into a squall line/bow that sweeps the area with severe weather risk. Should current parameters actually be in place, this would be a watch & then persistent multi-warning scenario Friday. We will monitor.

As of the morning outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has the main area of risk south of us, but I would bet money that will be expanded northward in the next outlook issued tonight. There may even be an upgrade from SLIGHT to ENHANCED risk, as well.

The only way this could be quelled greatly to much less in the way of severe risk is through more in the way of clouds than expected.  If it turns mostly cloudy or cloudy, then risk would go down.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible with a quick +2" in places as moisture-laden tropical air is pulled northward via strong southerly to southwesternly wind (dew points reaching 72-75).

Thursday evening to Thursday night & Friday morning projection loop is below. 

The black lines that show up on the cells are where this particular model is saying severe weather would be occurring.

Friday midday-afternoon & evening projected radar loop is below.  It shows the morphing & backbuilding of supercells & supercell clusters into a large, bowing squall line.  Given the parameters in the latest data, this would be more of an ENHANCED RISK scenario for our area.  We will monitor

The black lines that show up on the cells are where this particular model is saying severe weather would be occurring.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:

Saturday will feature clouds with some sun, breezy conditions from the NW at 15-25 mph & some scattering of showers/t'showers around. Highs will only run near 76.

A few showers/t'showers are possible Sunday with a mix of lots of clouds with some sun & highs near 77.

Monday looks dry with sunshine & some clouds with highs near 81 with low humidity. Lows will drop to the 50s Monday night, it appears.

Tuesday looks good with 82 with sun/clouds with lows in the 50s to around 60.

Article Comments

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Breezy weather & rainfall ahead.
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