What Analog Data (Similar Situations/Events) Show In Regards to Severe Risk Indiana to Gulf Coast Early Week

Analog data paints a picture of much of the severe risk south & southeast of our area early week. More significant rainfall & gusty winds are ahead, however.

Posted: Nov. 3, 2018 11:55 PM
Updated: Nov. 3, 2018 11:59 PM

CIPS analog datea regarding Monday severe risk has been pretty consistent with some good matches indicating these severe probabilities.

Analog consistency diverges for Monday night-Tuesday morning.

This shows the analog matches for this time period October 30.

October 31

Then November 1

November 2

November 3

I think it will be a blend of November 2 & 1.  There will probably be a bulls-eye of Moderate-type risk Tennessee to Mississippi, Alabama & eastern Arkansas with lessening risk with north & northeastward extent. 

Here, latest data suggests perhaps Marginal parameter reaching our southeastern areas with a squally line of gusty rainfall of very little or no lightning pivoting around the center of the deepening surface low (near Kankakee early Tuesday morning).  Gusty winds may accompany it & isolated severe gust may occur in the southeast.  This would be on the backside of a much larger area of rainfall that will pass late Monday & through Monday night.

Thinking with a bit more southerly track of the low, winds may gust to 30 mph Monday-Monday night, then 30-50 for a while Tuesday from the west to northwest as any lingering rainfall exits with falling temperatures.

1.5-3" of rainfall is likely Sunday-Tuesday, which will lead to additional lowland flooding.

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