CIPS analog datea regarding Monday severe risk has been pretty consistent with some good matches indicating these severe probabilities.
Analog consistency diverges for Monday night-Tuesday morning.
This shows the analog matches for this time period October 30.
Then November 1
I think it will be a blend of November 2 & 1. There will probably be a bulls-eye of Moderate-type risk Tennessee to Mississippi, Alabama & eastern Arkansas with lessening risk with north & northeastward extent.
Here, latest data suggests perhaps Marginal parameter reaching our southeastern areas with a squally line of gusty rainfall of very little or no lightning pivoting around the center of the deepening surface low (near Kankakee early Tuesday morning). Gusty winds may accompany it & isolated severe gust may occur in the southeast. This would be on the backside of a much larger area of rainfall that will pass late Monday & through Monday night.
Thinking with a bit more southerly track of the low, winds may gust to 30 mph Monday-Monday night, then 30-50 for a while Tuesday from the west to northwest as any lingering rainfall exits with falling temperatures.
1.5-3" of rainfall is likely Sunday-Tuesday, which will lead to additional lowland flooding.
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