We had our fourth little minor wintry precipitation event of November Saturday night-early Sunday morning with up to 1" of snow in the northern part of the viewing area (north of U.S. 24). South of there, it was mostly rain with a few flakes. Reason was lack of dry air to evaporate more rainfall & that led to more cooling. We needed the temperature down a few degrees a few thousands feet up & we needed the temperature about 2 degrees lower at the surface in areas like Lafayette, Crawfordsville, Attica, Fowler, Frankfort, etc.
In the north, it was was cold enough for snow. Wheatfield had the most at exactly 1" with many other areas at 0.4-0.7".
Area of rainfall in southern Indiana will continue to migrate northeastward some tonight.
Here is that area of cold rain right now. Note the bright banding in indicating big, fat snowflake reflecting closer to the surface. These are not far from the ground at all, as the reds & orange colors are close to the site of the radar at Indianapolis.
Potential is there for a narrow band of wet snow on the northern/northwestern periphery of this rainfall. Should this occur, it could snow in Montgomery, part of Clinton to Howard........possibly to southern part of Tippecanoe early in this morning. Best chance of a little minor accumulation on the grass would be Montgomery & southern Clinton to Howard counties, it appears.
Pavement would be wet, any accumulation that can occur would be on cartops, rooftops & grass & be less than 1".
There isn't much hope for much clearing until Tuesday evening-night. Today looks mostly cloudy after any snow in the southeast in the morning. After highs today in the 30s to 40, lows tonight will drop to the 20s to around 30. Some scattered flurries & snow showers are possible tonight. A localized light dusting is possible overnight-Tuesday morning. Some lake effect snow showers may continue in the north & northeast longer Tuesday, before ending by early Tuesday evening. A brief dusting is possible from those.
Highs Tuesday will run in the 30s.
The weather will improve Wednesday to Friday.
Wednesday & Thursday look decent. Wednesday should feature highs in the 40s, while Thanksgiving looks mostly sunny with highs in the 45-52 range, followed by 54-59 Friday with skies turning cloudy late with gusty south-southwest winds to 30 mph. Showers & isolated thunder are possible by evening-early night time hours.
Rain is possible early Saturday, followed by a dry afternoon with less wind. After low, gray clouds early, it looks like it will clear in the afternoon with highs 55-60 & a southwest wind at 10-15 mph. Not bad!
Rain will return Sunday, followed by a brief change to snow Sunday afternoon as temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s. This system looks quite deep, so strong gusty winds are likely, especially with the period of snow on the backside. Should it deepen as suggested, gusts +40 mph from the north may develop.
This system will have its energy & moisture tranferred to developing Nor'Easter off the coast of the Carolinas to Virginia. This could become a major Nor'Easter storm with high winds, damaging flooding & heavy snowfall. This would be a national story type of storm. This has been a steady trend & I think, given the pattern, there is high likelihood of it. This would be early next week.
Here, the Nor'Easter (after our system brings the wind & perhaps a brief less than 1" of snow) will pull the cold air in & keep it breezy to windy early next week. Highs should run in the 30s.
A couple more Nor'Easters may develop, as Arctic air roars in southward, in early December. We may end up with some snowfall, too. This would either be from a system or a clipper system with an energy transfer to an East Coast storm or a storm so large along the Gulf & East Coasts that we get some snow from it.
Temperatures definitely look below normal in early December.
This whole pattern points to one cold, snowy winter for the entire eastern U.S. Yes, there will be some some periods where it warms as always, but cold will dominate. The polar vortex is weaker & less tight this year, bringing more opportunities to tap into brutal cold & what pattern is setting up now is exactly what analogs have suggested to continue through winter. This will lead to some brutal, near/record cold & record snowfall at times in the eastern U.S. This is especially true for the southern & Northeastern part of the country.
Stratospheric warming episode looks on the horizon for the Arctic, suggesting that a weakening segment of the Polar Vortex will spill a substantial Arctic airmass into the eastern U.S. in mid December &/or just prior to Christmas. This could be some of the coldest such air since 1989, 1995, 2000 for the time of year.
Snow is likely here with high likelihood of Nor'Easters. There is a greater than normal potential of a winter storm prior to Christmas. I am also still going with a White Christmas (1" or greater of snowfall on the ground on Christmas).
Big thaw with nice warm-up should follow after Christmas before the very cold air returns in early January.
We may not end up with as much snow as the historic 2013-14 winter, but we may not be that far behind with similar waves of cold. This will be one of those winters that just seems to go on & on & on & on. It begins early & ends late!