Sunday Evening Forecast:
The hot weekend continues this Sunday afternoon. We're seeing temperatures in the mid 80's up to the low 90's across the region. Factor in the heat index, and certain areas feel like their in the upper 90's.
The winds from the south has been played a large role in the weekend warm-up. After the rain from last week, we saw the winds shift to a more southerly flow. This allows for warmer air to move into the region from the tropics. Currently, winds are moderate, ranging between 10 to 15 miles per hour for a majority of the region. This movement of the air is helping to mitigate some of the heat.
If you need to get any yard work done or want to enjoy the outdoors, today will be the best day to do so out of the next three. The only reason we have a yellow light for this evening is due to the heat. We're tracking an approaching low pressure system that will bring the chance of rain for Monday afternoon and Tuesday. In addition to the rain, this system will bring cooler temperatures for the seven day forecast. For this evening, temperatures will remain in the 80's until sunset. The low tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.
Monday and Tuesday Rain Synopsis
The system we are tracking is currently sitting over portions of Iowa into Nebraska. It will continue it's east/southeastward path, bringing the potential for showers and storms Monday into Tuesday.
Let's talk about timing for Monday...
We'll see clear conditions for the morning commute, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Expect temperatures in the mid 70's by the time you head out the door. Cloudy coverage will continuously increase as a cold front approaches. By mid-afternoon, we'll see mostly cloudy conditions.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather for parts of Newton and Jasper counties, while the remainder of the viewing area is currently under a marginal risk for severe weather. On a scale of 1-5, the slight classifies as a 2 in terms of severe threat, and the marginal risk classifies as a 1. The main risks will be small sized hail, strong winds, and areas of heavy precipitation creating limited visibility.
I think chances for storms will start late afternoon, between 3-5 pm. These storms will be building ahead of the cold front. This will pose the greatest severe threat, as they will be forming in a favorable environment for strong storms. Warm temperatures (we'll be in the mid to upper 80's by this time), adequate daytime heating (meaning limited clouds), and a relatively unstable atmosphere. Models are favoring development mainly for eastern Indiana, but we cannot rule out the chance for storms during this time for our viewing area.
The main front looks to arrive into the late evening/overnight hours, mainly after 10 pm. Most will see rain with the passing of this line.
The marginal risk for severe weather remains through Tuesday, mainly due to the passing of the cold front during the overnight hours.
We'll see a brief break in the showers early Tuesday morning before they return for the late morning and afternoon. Tuesday will bring more widespread rain and scattered storms.