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Summer 2019 Outlook

Here is the low-down on summer.

Posted: Mar 11, 2019 9:13 PM
Updated: Mar 11, 2019 10:28 PM

SO...............WE HAVE HAD EL NINO MODOKI THIS WINTER WITH NEAR LA NINA EVEN AT ONE POINT.....WE WILL SEE DOUBLE EL NINO WITH A PEAK IN IT THIS SUMMER............LIKELY A BACK & FORTH BETWEEN MODOKI & TRADITIONAL EL NINO..........

WETTER, MUGGIER THAN NORMAL................NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL.............STRINGS OF ABNORMALLY WARM NIGHTS.................JULY HOTTEST, THEN AUGUST, THEN JUNE............

Wetter than normal, muggier than normal (number of hours with dew points at or above 70 will be very high) summer is ahead with temperatures averaging near normal. 

Given all of the rainfall expected, it will be a tropical summer with very high humidity & multiple periods of 80-degree dew points. 

Night-time lows above normal will be especially plentiful.  We may very well have a complete 5- to 6-day stretch of lows in the 70s.

The hottest month looks to be July, followed by August.  The coolest is shaping up to be June.

July & August mean temperatures should average just slightly above normal with June temperature slightly below normal.

NOT A LOT OF RIDGE RIDERS & RING OF FIRE ACTION PER SEY, BUT LOTS OF PLAINS MCSS, MCCs ABUNDANT MONSOON (FROM EL NINO)...............TORRENTIAL RAINS AT TIMES..........MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN LAST YEAR..........

It would seem that t'storms would be dictated more by just the very strong flow around an exceptional strong Bermuda high.  Lots of air mass t'storms & clusters of heavy torrential t'storms would tend to be the norm, rather than intense "Ring of Fire" ridge-riding derechos & MCSs.

It will likely be just the deep, deep mugginess interacting with cold fronts & outflow boundaries laid down by previous days storms that form severe weather.  However, MCVs will be trigger too............especially given.........again, the El Nino-enhanced big monsoon.

If we had a big ridge & drought nearby & a big contrast, then I would expect more in the way of organized, severe complexes & derechoes.  They would ridge along that ridge periphery.

I remember back in 2012 when the dry, mild winter & persistent Plains hot ridge since 2010 showed a high likelihood of major drought here & derechoes on the periphery of that drought.  This occurred.

In 2010 & 2011 we had the massive Plains ridge & we had organized, nasty severe weather on the periphery of it with multiple derechoes & lots of severe weather here.

Such a persistent droughty ridge will not be in place this summer, but any time you have warm, juicy, unstable air & very high mugginess (doesn't even have to be 92 degrees, it can be 83 or 85) if you can get a cold front in, or a boundary & get some shear & higher wind fields in then severe risk will develop.

August 2016 is a great example with all of the tornadoes in central & east-central Indiana.  80s day, but with very high dew points in the 70s in a waterlogged troposphere with low LCLs (cloud heights) & a strong MCV from storms overnight in the Plains.  Given the highly-robust monsoon expected in the Desert Southwest, I would expected a lot of MCS, MCCs (complexes of storms) in the Plains.  Their MCVs will likely be triggers for storm development here.

All that said, I expect more severe weather in our area this summer than last summer, but not the kind experienced in 2010 & 2011. 

SUMMER MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES:

SUMMER RAINFALL ANOMALIES:

JUNE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES:

JUNE RAINFALL ANOMALIES:

JULY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES:

JULY RAINFALL ANOMALIES:

AUGUST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES:

AUGUST RAINFALL ANOMALIES:

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