A few isolated showers/t'showers have been moving through our northern counties north of the warm front.
These will continue to exit.
Skies should feature mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies & highs 77-86 the rest of the day. Dew points will rise to 65-70 by late afternoon.
Warm front will continue to lift northward & we will be completely dry, warm & humid tonight with lows in the 60s.
Storms & severe weather will stay northwest of our area.
There is a lot of heat ahead with domination of above normal temperatures through mid-September.
Near/record heat is possible over parts of the South & Appalachians. Temperatures will soar to 100 in some areas, like they did yesterday.
Tuesday looks very warm to hot & humid with sunshine, some clouds & highs 89-92 with heat indices 93-99.
Winds will be from the south to south-southwest at 10-20 mph.
A few spotty storms are possible Wednesday.
Wind fields aloft & shear support risk of severe storm for any that do form.
Coverage will run around 30%. Risk of isolated severe storm will be around for any of the storms afternoon-evening.
Highs will run 89-93 with heat indices 94-100 with south-southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
After severe weather Thursday west of our area, while we see just a few isolated to spotty storms (highs will run 89-93 Thursday with heat indices 94-101), that line of storms to the west will arrive Thursday night-Friday morning in one form or another.
One of four things will happen:
1. Line passes in weakening mode & then new storms fire on its outflow boundary east of us Friday.
2. Line passes Thursday night & some new storms form on actual cold front in our area Friday midday.
3. Line collapses & new storms form on outflow boundary right inside our area Friday morning-midday.
4. Line hold together long enough Thursday night for some severe risk here.
After slightly cooler & less humid Friday & Saturday, warm front will pass through area Saturday night (with a few isolated showers/storms possible).
Sunday will turn hot & humid again.
Overall, conditions up to around September 20 look a bit wetter & much warmer than normal, followed by a substantial cool-down.
Some severe weather is possible with this transition.
Latest data suggests wetter than normal conditions for now to September 20 will tend to focus along & north of US 24.
Temperatures look to run a bit below normal overall late September to early October. It will also turn to an overall drier than normal pattern.
I think this computer model map is not painting enough blue over the Midwest, Great Lakes & South. I think the below normal temperatures will be more expansive than what this shows.
It appears that the cold air will come in two waves.
One will bring lows of 37-44 on the mornings of September 24 & 25 with a widespread freeze over Minnesota to northwestern Iowa & the Dakotas (28-32).
They other surge, after a bit of a warm-up, should bring lows of 33-40 to the area on the morning of October 2.
It looks like a lot of cool days & chilly mornings with overall drier pattern up to October 10.
Trend is for warmer weather with stretch of above normal temperatures will occur in mid-October with continue rather dry pattern.
However, we will watch the southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical system, which could eventually impact the Gulf Coast. If that would occur, we would need to watch to see if it impacts our weather with rainfall.
We will monitor.
There is frost ahead, but in terms of a widespread killing freeze with 25-30, that is not seen up to October 18.
We will monitor, however.
- September 6, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 25, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 3, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 16, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 20, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 26, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 7, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 21, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update