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September 6, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Tracking risk of severe weather, mugginess, then a big cool-down before we see a big warm-up again.

Posted: Sep 6, 2020 11:27 AM
Updated: Sep 6, 2020 2:47 PM

MCS produced measured gusts of up to 83 mph in northern Iowa lastnight & 2" diameter hail in Minnesota.  Wind damage also occurred in eastern Iowa, in many areas of the derecho track.

The pressure has dropped so much with it that it has developed a wake low with gusts 40-50 mph in the derech-ravaged area of eastern Iowa.

MCS will continue to weaken (but produce rain & a few storms to early afternoon) over our area before it diminishes completely by mid-afternoon.  Clouds will begin to thin & sunshine appear today, as well.

However, the meso-low or wake low from the MCS may bring a period of strong southerly winds this afternoon with gusts +30 mph.

Highs should run in the 70s to 80s.

New storms should fire northwest of our area this evening & pass through overnight to early Monday morning.

There is the risk of a couple to few severe storms with warm, muggy weather tonight with steady temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s.

There is a MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for these storms.  Main threat is wind.

After storms Monday morning, a break is likely with some clearing.

The line should diminish just south of our area, but new storms should fire on that outflow boundary & move back northeastward Monday evening-night. 

So, some showers & storms return in the evening-overnight after storms early Monday morning.

There is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather weather for those storms for wind & hail.

Highs in the muggy 80s are likely.

There is increasing consenus among model that to shift the rain & storm action west & north of our area completely on Tuesday.

This would bath us in breezy to windy, very warm, muggy conditions with sunshine & highs in the 80s to near 90.

Blocking ridge in the Southeast may stall system & bring warm, dry day Wednesday before showers/storms pass Wednesday night-Thursday. 

Much cooler weather will follow for a few days with highs 68-74 & lows in the 40s, followed by a big warm-up rapidly to the mid to upper 80s again.

West Lafayette
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Logansport
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More showers, isolated thunder, then nice, Fall-like weekend...
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