September 6, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Tracking up to SLIGHT RISK for severe weather Tuesday late & a late-season heat wave followed by continued likelihood of BIG CHANGE...

Posted: Sep 6, 2021 9:24 PM
Updated: Sep 6, 2021 10:05 PM

Smoky haze led to breathing troubles for those susceptible today.  The smoky haze was showing up well & the maps show the near surface to surface smoke from mostly Ontario & Minnesota fires reaching our area.

Highs on this Labor Day reached 82-88.

It was overall a very nice, summery Labor Day, though some isolated showers (with isolated rumble of thunder) popped on the leading edge of the higher dew points coming in this evening.

Trace to 0.40" occurred in the brief showers mostly south of 26 to around I-74.

After variably cloudy skies tonight with a couple isolated showers area-wide (as dew point front lifts northward) with lows in the 60s, it will turn windy tomorrow.

Southwest winds will run 22-37 mph with highs 85-90 with heat indices 90-95.

A broken line of storms will form to our north & pass through our area likely in the 6 p.m. to 11 p.m. time frame.

A few severe gusts & some severe hail is possible given the wind fields through the tropsophere.

Looks like a SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 of 5 of severe weather risk generally along & north of 26 & MARGINAL RISK or Level 1 of 5 south of there.

Wednesday looks breezy to windy with mostly sunny to sunny skies, low humidity & highs 80-85 with west to west-northwest winds 15-28 mph after 56-62 in the morning.

Thursday looks good with mostly sunny to sunny skies becoming partly cloudy with low humidity, north winds 10-15 mph & highs 77-82.

Friday looks warm with wind shift to the southwest at 10-15 mph with highs 84-88.  The humidity will be held in check, however.

As for Saturday, it looks breezy to windy & very warm to hot with highs 87-92 with heat indices 89-95 after morning lows 64-68.

It does appear we may be able to split the heat into two rounds if we can indeed get this surface cold front farther south early next week.

If that happens, then we'd get a breather from heat with a couple nice, comfortable days before we heat up rapidly again.

We will monitor.

Nonetheless, temperatures trend overall above normal September 10-19.

However, you can see the changes approaching as we approach September 19.  Note the below normal temperature anomalies to our northwest while we see substantial above normal temperature anomalies.

And..........here comes Fall!  Note the much cooler air coming in.  Lows of 42-46 are likely for several nights.

However, it appears we will still tend to warm back above normal & that warmth dominate as we end September & move right into the the first half of October.

Overall trend is drier than normal, but the wildcards are the Texas/Mexico tropical system, Pacific tropical systems for us.  System around Florida & along the East Coast will likely not bring us any rain.

There area opportunities if we play our cards right to get deep tropical moisture in here from Mexico & Texas, as well as the northeastern Pacific.

We will monitor.

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