September 6, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Outlook

New data in, here is your latest forecast outlook for the weekend & beyond.

Posted: Sep 6, 2019 11:08 AM
Updated: Sep 6, 2019 12:09 PM

A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon with clouds & some sun with highs in the 70s.

Southwest winds will turn to the west, then northwest at 15-25 mph.

Skies should become partly cloudy this evening.  It looks cool & breezy for high school football with temperatures falling into the 60s with northwest winds 10-25 mph.

Lows by early Saturday morning with run 51-56.

Looks like a mix of clouds & sun Saturday with variablity in the sky cover through the day.

At times morning to evening it will turn mostly cloudy, other times, clouds will part for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.  An isolated shower &/or sprinkle is possible in the morning & then late afternoon to evening.  Model data suggests lots of clouds early in the day, then a break with lots of sun, then lots of clouds later in the afternoon to evening.

Highs will run in the 70s with 8-15 mph winds from the north-northwest in the morning, followed by a lull of 5-10 mph winds from the northwest for a while, then 8-15 mph winds from the northwest in the late afternoon-evening.

After 50s for low Sunday morning, showers & a couple isolated storms will pass Sunday morning to early afternoon.

Lull should follow, but low clouds may linger.  Highs look to run at only 66-72.

Winds look east-northeast then northeast at 5-11 mph

Some additional showers & a few storms are possible Sunday night as cold front that drop south begins to move back north as a warm front.

It appears that some scattered rainfall my continue Monday morning to early afternoon at times, then we should dry out.

Winds will turn from the east to the southeast, then south-southeast Monday at 10-15 mph with highs 76-84 with cloudy skies becoming a mix of clouds & some sun.  The mugginess will begin to return!

After a dry, windy, warm & muggy Tuesday with highs 85-90 with south-southwest winds at 15-30 mph, scattered storms are likely Wednesday.  After a muggy 70 in the morning, highs of 84-89 are likely with south-southwest winds at 10-15 mph.

Some storms are also possible Thursday-Thursday night.  Coverage should peak Thursday night around 60% after highs of 85-89 Thursday (with high humidity).

We look to turn a bit cooler Friday with 77-82, followed by mugginess & 80s to around 90 next weekend (with risk of storms).

Note how CAPE, shear & dynamics are favorable for MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK-type episodes of severe Wednesday through Sunday.

At this point, it is possible (given parameter projections) that the Storm Prediction Center may eventually put all or part of the viewing in the following categories for these days (severe weather-wise)............

These are NOT OFFICIAL SPC forecasts, but rather an idea of what you may expect in future outlook from SPC meteorologists:

Wednesday:  MARGINAL with SLIGHT far north

Thursday:  MARGINAL with SLIGHT northwest

Saturday:  MARGINAL

September 18-19:  MARGINAL with SLIGHT far northwest one or both days

Model data shows a corridor of severe risk off & on Wednesday to next weekend (& even beyond to September 19 before pattern changes).

As we have seen, a larger-scale area can be marked for severe, but local, meso-scale details will ultimately determine risk.

The other night is a perfect example with a damaging EF1 tornado in the northern Chicago suburbs & the wind damage in far northern Indiana to Michigan, while we were largely okay.  We did have that one cyclical HP supercell with a well-developed wall cloud & a funnel cloud, however, with strong low-level rotation on radar from Benton to northwest Clinton counties.

We did not have more due to strong cap though parameters were conducive to a couple of EF1 to EF2 tornadoes & scattered wind with isolated hail.

So, mid-September certainly looks wetter than normal.

Mid-September also looks warmer than normal with unusually hot weather over the south-central & southern U.S. with heat wave.

Trend is to shift heat west & east & cool it off in the central part of the country & into the South as we reach the end of September & move into October.

In fact, the trend is still to bring a morning or two in the 30s with some patches of frost October 1-2.

It also looks to turn a bit drier than normal here in that time.

However, note the plume of above normal rainfall from the Gulf Coast to southern Indiana.

This could be that tropical storm or hurricane that could develop in the southern Gulf & move northward. 

We will monitor & see.

Article Comments

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Rainfall ahead.
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