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September 5, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Risk of some severe weather ahead.

Posted: Sep 5, 2020 2:36 PM
Updated: Sep 6, 2020 12:42 AM

It is a windy, warm day with tolerable humidity & lots of sunshine.  The stratocumulus castellanus clouds in our north half this morning have long departed.

Temperatures as of 2:45 p.m. are 82-85 with gusts up to 33 mph from the southwest.

As a cold front sinks southward this evening & tonight, a few isolated showers/storms (20%) are briefly possible as cumulus clouds build along the front after highs today peaking at 83-87.

Up to ENHANCED RISK of severe weather is up northwest of our area for tonight-early AM Sunday as a nocturnal complex of severe storms or MCS develops & migrates southeastward on front boundary & on periphery of increasing intense heat in the Plains.

The high & mid overcast from the MCS should overspread our area Sunday morning (after lows 50s to the lower 60s), resulting in the rising sun being dimmed & then completely fading away northwest to southeast.

MCS should weaken as it moves into our area.  If any severe storm can hold on, it would just be to our far western fringe in the viewing area & then fade, it appears.

So, weakening showers & a few storms are likely Sunday late morning to midday to early afternoon before completely dissipating.

After a cloudy chunk of the day, some clearing is possible late.

Highs of 77-85 are likely with humid conditions.

It will also be breezy from the southeast to south to southwest, followed by a period of windy conditions with gusts to 40 mph from the south late in the day.

There is MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK up for Sunday night-Monday morning with SLIGHT in our far northwestern counties.

Should this line of storms with some severe risk pass through Sunday night-early Monday, the trend for storms to re-fire south of our area Labor Day will increase.

This means that much of the day may then turn out dry, but some more storms are possible Monday night &/or Tuesday.

So, it would be a situation of storms Monday morning perhaps giving way to a clearing trend in the afternoon with 80s.  We will monitor.  Hopefully this trend will hold.

The other scenario would be (the thinking lastnight & prior days) with a few isolated torms in the morning on outflow boundary/gust front, new storms would fire Monday afternoon-evening with some severe risk.

More storms are possible Tuesday.

West Lafayette
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Logansport
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More showers, isolated thunder, then nice, Fall-like weekend...
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