September 4, 2:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Outlook to late October.......

Posted: Sep 4, 2019 2:24 PM
Updated: Sep 4, 2019 3:13 PM

Our trough is doing its thing by picking up Dorian & accelerating the hurricane to the northeast.  It will still have impacts along the East Coast, especially in the Carolinas (still Category 2 or 3 there) with a brief skimming of a landfall or two cannot 100% be ruled out (before it is pushed rapidly back out to sea).

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I will have another regarding what made yesterday such a unique, interesting & challenging weather forecasting day.  From wake low to gravity waves to outflow boundaries, to HP supercell with wall cloud & funnel cloud, strong cap, smoke.....it had a lot going on!

Wind damage reports from yesterday to lastnight with likely tornado in Lake County, Illinois:

Cumulus/stratocumulus clouds increasing north to south over area now & will continue this afternoon.

Isolated sprinkle/light shower is possible (15%).

Highs today will run in the 70s.

Clouds burn off tonight, setting stage for coolest night for the viewing area overall since early June at 46-53.  Some patchy, shallow fog may develop.

Thursday looks great with sunshine, few clouds & 70s, followed by Thursday morning lows in the 50s.

Shortwave & weak cold front will pivot through Friday with increasing clouds & potential of a few isolated showers/t'showers (25%).  Highs will run in the 70s to the lower 80s.

As for Saturday & the Purdue-Vanderbilt football match-up at Ross-Ade, looks north north-northeast winds at 8-15 mph with highs in the 70s with a mix of clouds & some sun.  This, after lows in the 50-55 range Saturday morning.

An isolated shower or two is possible in the area Saturday midday to afternoon (15-20%).

Shortwave & cold front will pivot through Sunday with some scattered showers & t'showers (35%) with lots of clouds & highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

I did raise Sunday morning's low from 43-48 to 47-54 as the clouds are expected to arrive sooner than first expected.

Front will move back north as a warm front Monday with lots of clouds & winds turning from the east to southeast with highs in the 70s.

A few showers & storms are possible as the front lifts northward (30%).

The warm front will be completely north of the area by late Monday night.

Tuesday looks bright, windy, very warm & humid with highs 85-89 with south-southwest winds 15-30 mph.

The overall trend is for warmer than normal & wetter than normal weather for mid-September:

Temperatures anomalies:

Rainfall anomalies:

End of September to early October looks cooler than normal overall.

Lows in the 30s are possible in the first two days of October with a freeze possible as far south as northwestern Illinois.

It also looks drier than normal.

Mid-October shows a return to normal to slightly-above normal temperatures overall with normal to slightly-below normal rainfall.

Temperature anomalies:

Rainfall anomalies:

There is a tendency to keep the Southeast U.S. warmer & drier & us wetter in late October.

Here, we look to be on the edge of much cooler air in the Plains & much warmer air in the Southeast.

This will keep our temperatures potentially oscillating from cold to warm in a big way with rapid fluctuations, wet weather & risk of at least one severe weather event/outbreak (given the strong jet winds over the area & the storm track).

Out temperatures my average near normal, but there will be some well-below to well-above normal temperatures possible in the latter part of the month.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 72°
Kokomo
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 72°
Rensselaer
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 68°
Fowler
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 68°
Williamsport
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 72°
Crawfordsville
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 68°
Frankfort
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 73°
Delphi
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 72°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 70°
Nice, very warm to hot weather to continue.
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