After lows of 48-56 this morning (which was the first fog-free morning in 3 days), highs today reached 74-81 with lots of sunshine.
The dew points today were at the lowest levels since June 17 in the 30s & 40s. So, the air was very dry & comfortable, especially with that nice west-northwest to northwest wind up to 25 mph.
Lows tonight will run 51-58 with mostly clear skies as a light southwest wind commences.
A period of partly cloudy skies is possible tomorrow morning, followed by a wave of mostly sunny skies, then some increasing clouds in our northwestern counties by evening. A few spotty showers/storms are possible in the northwest, then turning a bit more to the southeast before diminishing. In that narrow window (few hours) peak coverage of the showers/storms in a narrow line of 30% is possible.
After south-southwest winds of 15-32 mph with highs of 82-87 Saturday (with still pretty tolerable humidity), lows tomorrow night will run near 60 to the 60s.
Saturday night, nasty MCS with lots of severe weather from Minnesota to northwestern Illinois will occur.
This will weaken rapidly as it approaches our area. It may still hold on enough for some weakening showers/storms Sunday with 40% coverage in the viewing area. Timing would be late morning-midday to very early afternoon after clouds increase through the morning. Some clearing is likely in the afternoon-evening.
Highs of 79-88 are likely north to south over the area with increasing humidity & southeast to south wind 8-13 mph becoming south, then south-southwest at 20-33 mph later in the day.
Capping will strengthen through the day in our area & especically Iowa to South Dakota & west & southward, impeding much storm development at all.
Severe storms should then blow up with potential of evolution toward an organized MCS (complex of storms) Sunday night to early Monday mroning across southeastern Wisconsin to Michigan & far northeastern Illinois to far northern Indiana, then Ontario & northern Ohio.
Farther west & south, capping will be an issue, preventing much in the way of storm development.
My thought process has been that outflow boundary from these storms may pop an isolated storm or two Monday morning, then bigger flare up of storms with a potential line developing over the area Monday afternoon-evening as we reach peak heating.
I then prefer to bring storms back Tuesday midday-afternoon & again in the evening & night with severe risk.
I am not going to deviate from this at the moment as new data will be streaming in through tonight, tomorrow & Sunday to see if tweaks or shifts in the forecast are needed to this. Those are certainly possible.
My thoughts are verified in the 00z (8 p.m. initialization) 20 km NAM model run.
Monday & Tuesday look very warm to hot & muggy with windy conditions (from the south-southwest 15-32 mph).
80s are likely to even some places seeing around 90.
Storms are possible at times & with some severe weather risk.
Showery weather Wednesday will become more & more isolated to spotty Thursday as temperatures drop below normal.
Temperatures will shoot back above normal & stay there overall late September to early October.
Normal rainfall should shift back below normal.
Above normal temperatures should extend through mid-October.
Trend toward below normal rainfall should continue in mid-October.
Though we may turn solid cooler than normal a couple of periods in October & November, above normal temperatures will tend to dominate.
The trend for late November & December is well-above normal temperatures, while it will be bitterly cold in the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies & Paciric Northwest.
This will make for a very sharp gradient that may lead to late-season severe weather episodes here, powerhouse storms with blizzards in the Northern Plains & Rockies & overall above normal rainfall pattern here with increased risk of some flooding.
Meanwhile, the Southern Plains & Southeast will see drought conditions worsen & grassland & brush fires occur in parts of Texas, Oklahoma & Kansas as storms deepen & strong dry winds drive flames.
Wetter than normal weather is expected over much of November to December.