25-30% of showers (& even a few t'showers late today) will do for today with more sun this late afternoon-evening. It will be windy with southwest winds becoming west, then west-northwest at 20-40 mph.
Highs of 63-71 are likely later today.
Lows should drop to 42-47 tonight with overall partly cloudy skies with a west-northwest wind at 9-14 mph.
With partly to mostly cloudy skies & strong west-northwest to northwest winds to 35 mph tomorrow, 40-45% coverage of showers & a t'showers will occur. A couple isolated graupal or small hail producers are possible.
Highs should reach the 58-66 range from north to south.
With partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night & a couple of isolated showers, lows of 43-48 are likely.
Friday looks partly cloudy with northwest wind decreasing from 10-20 mph for the first half of the day to 6-14 mph by afternoon & 5 mph by evening.
Highs of 57-63 are likely.
Some patchy frost is likely Friday night with lows 33-39 with a few clouds to patches of cloudiness at times & winds turning to the north & becoming light. If we can get enough cloudiness to hang on with the cold air aloft & Lake Michigan influence, then we may end up warmer with lower patchy frost risk. We will monitor. It could also be a situation where the northern half stays cloudy to mostly cloudy & the southeast is clear, resulting in a big temperature difference over the area from 33-43.
The coldest readings will actually occur over Montgomery, Clinton to Howard & Miami counties, well away from Lake Michigan, which will keep the northwestern areas a bit warmer.
I am forecasting around 37 for Greater Lafayette.
Saturday features increasing clouds with breezy conditions developing (south-southwest at 5-10 mph increasing to 15-23 mph) with highs 63-67.
An Alberta Clipper will dive southeastward & bring a wave of some showers Saturday night to early Sunday morning with lows of 49-54.
Then, the sun should appear, cumulus towers bubble up Sunday & a few showers & storms develop in the cold air aloft.
An isolated small hail producer or two is possible.
With strong southwest, then west to northwest winds 20-35 mph, high of 60-69 are likely from north to south over the area (around 66 for Greater Lafayette).
We turn much warmer next week with 70s by Tuesday (weak clipper with a couple isolated showers possible then) & 80s by late next week with strong southwest winds. We could reach well into the 80s, even push 90 in some places here by October 12-13. If we see some thick smoke come in, it will cut the temperatures a bit.
Upper ridge will dominate our area as massive storm off Washington, Oregon & California coast (storm merging with old Pacific major hurricane), drop very deep trough well west of the area. This could bring flooding rains & mudslides to parts of the Far West, while record heat is possible South Dakota, Nebraska to Kansas, Iowa & Colorado. Parts of South Dakota to Kansas could be pushing 100. Also, a hurricane will be brewing in the western Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico.
I do not agree with the position of the hurricane in the model below. I think it will be more toward Florida & then may ridge up the East Coast or move due north into the Appalachians. We will monitor.
My thoughts are that there will be a landfall over northwestern Florida around October 12, but the National Hurricane Center will have official forecasts out with time & we will be posting those.
We look very warm in this period until around October 15-16 when a strong cold front passes. Some showers/storms are possible.
Deep analog analysis with focus on early traditional La Nina (currently now nearing -1.0) Falls with & more neutral MJO with negative PDO & PNA shows better potential of some severe weather with this front from Kansas to Minnesota (SLIGHT RISK possible). We look to get the leftover currently with perhaps a broken line of some showers & storm, however. We will monitor.
Fri., 10/2 61/37 Partly Cloudy...Saturday AM Lows 33-39
Sat., 10/3 66/52 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sun., 10/4 66/46 Clouds/Sun, 30% Showers AM....Break....40% Showers/Storms PM, Windy
Mon., 10/5 64/42 Partly Cloudy
Tue., 10/6 72/49 Partly Cloudy, 20% Showers/T'Showers PM, Windy
Wed., 10/7 73/45 Partly Cloudy
Thu., 10/8 78/47 Mostly Sunny, Breezy
Fri., 10/9 81/53 Mostly Sunny, Breezy
Sat., 10/10 84/57 Mostly Sunny, Windy
Sun., 10/11 85/58 Mostly Sunny, Windy
Mon., 10/12 86/61 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Tue., 10/13 84/62 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Wed., 10/14 83/65 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Thu., 10/15 83/51 Partly Cloudy, 30% Showers/Storms PM, Windy
Fri., 10/16 61/41 AM Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sat., 10/17 61/34 AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Monday AM Lows 29-35
Mon., 10/18 65/39 Mostly Sunny
Tue., 10/19 67/43 Mostly Sunny, Breezy
Wed., 10/20 73/50 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Thu., 10/21 75/45 Partly Cloudy, 25% Showers, Windy
Fri., 10/22 64/36 AM Frost, Then Partly Cloudy.....Saturday AM 31-37
Sat., 10/23 65/47 Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Sun., 10/24 74/47 Mostly Cloudy, 35% Showers/T'Showers, Breezy
Mon., 10/25 64/39 Partly Cloudy
Tue., 10/26 64/36 AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Wednesday AM 31-37
Wed., 10/27 68/40 Mostly Sunny
Thu., 10/28 68/41 Mostly Sunny
Fri., 10/29 72/53 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sat., 10/30 70/47 Mostly Cloudy, 50% Showers/Storms, Windy
Sun., 10/31 56/34 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Mon., 11/01 58/31 Mostly Sunny....Tuesday AM Lows 27-32
Tue., 11/02 63/44 Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Wed., 11/03 67/50 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Thu., 11/04 57/51 Mostly Cloudy
Fri., 11/05 64/55 Mostly Cloudy, 50% Showers/Storms, Windy
Sat., 11/06 64/41 AM Showers, Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Windy