SLIGHT RISK for severe weather is up viewing area-wide.
Lack of upgrade to ENHANCED RISK over our northwest & northward is due to on-going, weakening non-severe showers & storms there that have hung on in one form or another since Saskatchewan & North Dakota.
Main threat is a few severe gusts.
There is also the risk of an isolated brief tornado & isolated large hail.
Strong wind fields are moving eastward & surface cold front & upper trough are on the move to the southeast.
This, with increasingly unstable, very warm, humid airmass from central Illinois advecting in, despite cloudiness in Illinois results in the severe risk.
Also, there is an outflow boundary from the decaying showers/storms over part of the area.
We will watch that boundary (even though it will gradually move northeastward & become more diffuse), as low-level shear will be enhanced along it as a broken line or two of storms comes in this evening.
New broken line or two of storms should fire & pass this evening. Severe risk is generally 6 p.m.-11 p.m. with that shear, the dynamics & destablizing sunshine from this afternoon-evening.
A couple of isolated showers are possible tomorrow with cumulus/stratocumulus developing & overspreading the area from the north, giving us a mix of clouds with sun.
Highs will run 70-77 (75 Greater Lafayette) with north winds at 8-15 mph.
With clear skies, lows of 47-51 are likely Wednesday night.
Thursday looks great with sun & some cumulus clouds, followed by a shortwave & cold front Friday popping a few isolated showers/t'showers with southwest winds 10-15 mph & highs 76-82.
A few isolated showers are possible Saturday with clouds/sun & highs 71-77 with north winds 8-15 mph.
Another shortwave & cold front will bring a few spotty showers/t'showers Sunday with clouds/some sun & highs only 68-73 after clear skies & 47-51 Saturday night.
Lows of 43-48 are possible Sunday night as skies clear.
Front will come back north as a warm front Monday, leading to some spotty showers & t'showers possible with highs 68-78.
Much warmer, humid weather will return Tuesday with partly cloudy skies, south-southwest winds 15-25 mph & highs 81-85.
We may see some scattered storms on next Wednesday as front moves back south as a cold front as surface low pivots through Iowa.
There is the risk of a couple/few severe storms given strong shear with dynamics & highs in the 80s with dew points projected at 65-68.
Cooler weather should return Thursday-Friday of next week with highs 67-74 with lows 43-48.
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