Showers will taper & some partial clearing occur today. Late in the afternoon-evening, cold air aloft will bubble up clouds to a few isolated to spotty showers with west to west-northwest winds 15-25 mph.
Temperatures as of 12:27 p.m. are 54-57, but CAMS data suggests a rebound to 59-66 this late afternoon after highs early this morning of 61-67.
With partly cloudy skies, widespread 40s will occur tonight with some patchy fog & a west-northwest wind.
Under a cumulus-filled sky Tuesday highs of 62-68 are likely with a few spotty showers in the PM. Winds should run west-southwest at 15-30 mph.
Wednesday looks mostly sunny, then cumulus-filled with a few spotty showers & t'showers in the PM. Highs of 67-72 are likely with west winds at 15-30 mph.
Thursday looks mostly sunny, then cumulus-filled with a few isolated to spotty showers PM with highs of 61-66 & northwest winds 15-30 mph.
Friday looks cooler with partly cloudy skies (cumulus humilis clouds), then mostly sunny late & highs 58-64.
Patchy frost is likely Friday night-early Saturday morning with lows 33-39.
Saturday looks warmer, as does Sunday wirth sun Saturday & an Alberta Clipper Sunday with a few spotty showers in the morning, then a break with sunshine, followed by a few PM showers/t'showers.
South to southwest winds may gust to 30 mph Saturday & southwest to west to west-northwest winds may gust to 30 mph on Sunday.
Monday looks partly cloudy with highs of 62-68, followed by Tuesday morning lows near 40 to the 40s.
Another clipper should pass Tuesday with a few showers/t'showers, followed by increasingly zonal flow, then upper ridge over the area, which means warmer, dry, sunshine weather here.
This weather looks to hang out for potentially for 6 days with three particularly warm days.
This a combination of analog & model data with numbers calculated from gP heights & also taken from 5,000' temperatures gives you an idea of what to expect temperature-wise through October.
Around October 19 shows the greatest potential of widespread frost & even freezing right now. This, after a couple of cold fronts with a few showers/storms.
The October 10-21 period shows the potential of a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Eastern Gulf Coast, Florida & the East Coast will need to be especially monitored for one of these.
Starts of La Nina falls tend to be warmer than normal overall over the Midwest & eastern U.S. & colder than normal the in Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies to far Northern Plains.
This current cool-down is tied to the big storm over Alaska from the remnants of a tropical storm & the Phase 5 of the MJO influence, which favors cooler than normal temperatures in the East.
I also did the best I could with analog analysis & long-range analysis of rainfall potential. I weighed it heavily on the La Nina & Phases of the MJO.
High/Low are for Greater Lafayette....
Mon., 9/28 65/45 Showers Decreasing 70% to 25%, Some Partial Clearing
Tue., 9/29 66/49 Windy, Clouds/Sun, 30% Showers/T'Showers PM
Wed., 9/30 71/47 Windy, Clouds/Sun, 35% Showers/Storms PM (isolated small hailers possible)
Thu., 10/1 64/41 Windy, Clouds/Sun, 25% Showers PM
Fri., 10/2 61/37 Partly Cloudy...Saturday AM Lows 33-39
Sat., 10/3 66/52 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sun., 10/4 68/46 Clouds/Sun, 30% Showers AM....Break....30% Showers/Storms PM, Windy
Mon., 10/5 66/42 Partly Cloudy
Tue., 10/6 72/51 Partly Cloudy, 25% Showers/T'Showers PM, Windy
Wed., 10/7 70/46 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Thu., 10/8 73/45 Mostly Sunny
Fri., 10/9 75/46 Mostly Sunny
Sat., 10/10 79/53 Mostly Sunny
Sun., 10/11 82/57 Mostly Sunny
Mon., 10/12 82/54 Partly Cloudy, 35% Showers/Storms PM, Windy
Tue., 10/13 68/44 Becoming Mostly Sunny
Wed., 10/14 72/44 Mostly Sunny
Thu., 10/15 76/47 Mostly Sunny
Fri., 10/16 80/54 Partly Cloudy, 30% Showers/Storms PM, Windy
Sat., 10/17 60/41 AM Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, Windy
Mon., 10/18 60/34 AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Tuesday AM Lows 29-35
Tue., 10/19 67/43 Mostly Sunny, Breezy
Wed., 10/20 73/50 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Thu., 10/21 75/45 Partly Cloudy, 25% Showers, Windy
Fri., 10/22 64/36 AM Frost, Then Partly Cloudy.....Saturday AM 31-37
Sat., 10/23 64/45 Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Sun., 10/24 72/47 Mostly Cloudy, 35% Showers/T'Showers, Breezy
Mon., 10/25 64/39 Partly Cloudy
Tue., 10/26 64/36 AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Wednesday AM 31-37
Wed., 10/27 68/40 Mostly Sunny
Thu., 10/28 68/41 Mostly Sunny
Fri., 10/29 70/53 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sat., 10/30 70/47 Mostly Cloudy, 50% Showers/Storms, Windy
Sun., 10/31 56/34 Partly Cloudy, Windy
Right now, every month still averages warmer than normal for our area & the Midwest, Southeast & East U.S. & colder than normal for the Northwest & far Northern U.S. November through April.
The Midwest-Ohio Valley, Plains to Northwestern U.S. show above normal precipitation every month, as well.
However, the drier Southeast looks a bit wetter in March (analog shows this would occur from a couple of significant rain events there, rather than a steady wet March).