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September 28, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update for now to the end of October.

Posted: Sep 28, 2020 11:01 AM
Updated: Sep 28, 2020 4:06 PM

Showers will taper & some partial clearing occur today.  Late in the afternoon-evening, cold air aloft will bubble up clouds to a few isolated to spotty showers with west to west-northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Temperatures as of 12:27 p.m. are 54-57, but CAMS data suggests a rebound to 59-66 this late afternoon after highs early this morning of 61-67.

With partly cloudy skies, widespread 40s will occur tonight with some patchy fog & a west-northwest wind.

Under a cumulus-filled sky Tuesday highs of 62-68 are likely with a few spotty showers in the PM.  Winds should run west-southwest at 15-30 mph.

Wednesday looks mostly sunny, then cumulus-filled with a few spotty showers & t'showers in the PM.  Highs of 67-72 are likely with west winds at 15-30 mph.

Thursday looks mostly sunny, then cumulus-filled with a few isolated to spotty showers PM with highs of 61-66 & northwest winds 15-30 mph.

Friday looks cooler with partly cloudy skies (cumulus humilis clouds), then mostly sunny late & highs 58-64.

Patchy frost is likely Friday night-early Saturday morning with lows 33-39.

Saturday looks warmer, as does Sunday wirth sun Saturday & an Alberta Clipper Sunday with a few spotty showers in the morning, then a break with sunshine, followed by a few PM showers/t'showers.

South to southwest winds may gust to 30 mph Saturday & southwest to west to west-northwest winds may gust to 30 mph on Sunday.

Monday looks partly cloudy with highs of 62-68, followed by Tuesday morning lows near 40 to the 40s.

Another clipper should pass Tuesday with a few showers/t'showers, followed by increasingly zonal flow, then upper ridge over the area, which means warmer, dry, sunshine weather here.

This weather looks to hang out for potentially for 6 days with three particularly warm days.

This a combination of analog & model data with numbers calculated from gP heights & also taken from 5,000' temperatures gives you an idea of what to expect temperature-wise through October.

Around October 19 shows the greatest potential of widespread frost & even freezing right now.  This, after a couple of cold fronts with a few showers/storms.

The October 10-21 period shows the potential of a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.  Eastern Gulf Coast, Florida & the East Coast will need to be especially monitored for one of these.

Starts of La Nina falls tend to be warmer than normal overall over the Midwest & eastern U.S. & colder than normal the in Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies to far Northern Plains.

This current cool-down is tied to the big storm over Alaska from the remnants of a tropical storm & the Phase 5 of the MJO influence, which favors cooler than normal temperatures in the East.

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I also did the best I could with analog analysis & long-range analysis of rainfall potential.  I weighed it heavily on the La Nina & Phases of the MJO.

High/Low are for Greater Lafayette....

Mon., 9/28   65/45   Showers Decreasing 70% to 25%, Some Partial Clearing

Tue., 9/29   66/49  Windy, Clouds/Sun, 30% Showers/T'Showers PM

Wed., 9/30  71/47  Windy, Clouds/Sun, 35% Showers/Storms PM (isolated small hailers possible)

Thu., 10/1   64/41  Windy, Clouds/Sun, 25% Showers PM

Fri., 10/2   61/37  Partly Cloudy...Saturday AM Lows 33-39

Sat., 10/3   66/52  Partly Cloudy, Windy

Sun., 10/4   68/46  Clouds/Sun, 30% Showers AM....Break....30% Showers/Storms PM, Windy

Mon., 10/5  66/42  Partly Cloudy

Tue., 10/6   72/51  Partly Cloudy, 25% Showers/T'Showers PM, Windy

Wed., 10/7  70/46  Partly Cloudy, Windy

Thu., 10/8  73/45  Mostly Sunny

Fri., 10/9   75/46   Mostly Sunny

Sat., 10/10   79/53   Mostly Sunny

Sun., 10/11   82/57   Mostly Sunny

Mon., 10/12  82/54   Partly Cloudy, 35% Showers/Storms PM, Windy

Tue., 10/13   68/44   Becoming Mostly Sunny

Wed., 10/14   72/44   Mostly Sunny

Thu., 10/15   76/47   Mostly Sunny

Fri., 10/16  80/54  Partly Cloudy, 30% Showers/Storms PM, Windy

Sat., 10/17   60/41   AM Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, Windy

Mon., 10/18   60/34   AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Tuesday AM Lows 29-35

Tue., 10/19   67/43   Mostly Sunny, Breezy

Wed., 10/20   73/50   Partly Cloudy, Windy

Thu., 10/21   75/45  Partly Cloudy, 25% Showers, Windy

Fri., 10/22   64/36  AM Frost, Then Partly Cloudy.....Saturday AM 31-37

Sat., 10/23  64/45  Partly Cloudy, Breezy

Sun., 10/24   72/47   Mostly Cloudy, 35% Showers/T'Showers, Breezy

Mon., 10/25   64/39  Partly Cloudy

Tue., 10/26   64/36  AM Frost, Then Mostly Sunny....Wednesday AM 31-37

Wed., 10/27   68/40   Mostly Sunny

Thu., 10/28   68/41   Mostly Sunny

Fri., 10/29   70/53   Partly Cloudy, Windy

Sat., 10/30   70/47   Mostly Cloudy, 50% Showers/Storms, Windy

Sun., 10/31   56/34   Partly Cloudy, Windy

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Right now, every month still averages warmer than normal for our area & the Midwest, Southeast & East U.S. & colder than normal for the Northwest & far Northern U.S. November through April.

The Midwest-Ohio Valley, Plains to Northwestern U.S. show above normal precipitation every month, as well.

However, the drier Southeast looks a bit wetter in March (analog shows this would occur from a couple of significant rain events there, rather than a steady wet March).

West Lafayette
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Rensselaer
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 41°
Fowler
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 41°
Williamsport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 37°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 42°
Frankfort
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 42°
Delphi
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Monticello
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Logansport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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