After 55-61 this morning with fog & low clouds, especially north of Highway 18 (fog delays at two school corporations in the north), it is sunny to mostly sunny over the area with 77-85 as of 3 p.m. with a light northeast wind.
Lows tonight should run 51-60 northeast to southwest over the viewing area with a few patches of fog. This will be followed by lots of sunshine & highs 81-89 northeast to southwest tomorrow.
We will drop back to the 53-60 range tomorrow night, followed by lots of sunshine & 81-87 Thursday.
Skies should turn partly cloudy Friday with 80s after morning lows in the 50s. The wind should turn to the south Friday at 10-20 mph. The humidity overall looks low until Friday afternoon.
With humid weather & partly cloudy skies, a few isolated showers/t'showers are possible Saturday with south-southeast winds 15-25 mph. Potential of isolated showers/t'showers is 8 am-3 pm Saturday at this point (25%).
A scattering of showers & storms is expected Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday night & even Monday.
Coverage will run 40-45%.
It is in two general waves:
1. Saturday night-Sunday: 1:30 am-7:30 am with best potential 5 a.m.-4 p.m.
2. Monday: 7 a.m.-3p.m. with best coverage 11 a.m.-1:30 p.m.
Highs will run in the 76-81 range Sunday & 72-76 range Monday as wind turns from southwest to the north (but lightens up Monday).
Any severe weather would be confined to Texas, Oklahoma & Arkansas & even that looks like MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 or 5).
It will then turn cooler for several days..
Front may bring isolated showers/t'showers on October 8, otherwise it looks dry after Monday until October 12.
That system may bring a few scattered showers & storms around. That particular system may bring SLIGHT RISK parameters from southern Minnesota to Iowa, northern Missouri & far northwestern Illinois as warm, humid air surges northward.
We are looking at a day of near/record warmth October 11 & 12.
Severe weather risk & rainfall coverage wanes with southward extent into our area due to best wind fields & dynamnics setting up northwest of our area & main storm center tracking well northwest of our area.
However, it still looks like a strong front as it drops highs to 55-61 with lows in the 30s.
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day Conditions
87/56...Sept. 29, Wed. Mostly Sunny, SE to SSE 5-10 mph...Record: 90-1905
85/58...Sept. 30, Thu. Mostly Sunny, SE 8-15 mph.
85/57...Oct. 1, Fri. Partly Cloudy, Becoming Humid, SE to S Wind 10-20 mph...Record: 92-1897
83/65...Oct. 2, Sat. Party Cloudy, Isolated T'Showers, Becoming Humid, SSE Wind 15-25 mph...Record: 92-1983
80/65...Oct. 3, Sun. Mostly Cloudy with Some Sct'd Showers/Storms, Humid, S Wind 20-35 mph.
75/61...Oct. 4, Mon. Mostly Cloudy with Some Sct'd Showers/Storms, Humid, SW Wind 10-15 mph to N 5-10 mph.
70/50...Oct. 5, Tue. Partly Cloudy, N Wind 10 mph.
70/42...Oct. 6, Wed. Mostly Sunny, E to SE Wind 10-15 mph.
74/55...Oct. 7, Thu. Increasing Clouds with Isolated Showers/T'Showers Possible, SW to W Wind 5-10 to 10-20 mph.
70/50...Oct. 8, Fri. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 5-10 to 10-20 mph.
72/44...Oct. 9, Sat. Mostly Sunny, N 5-10 mph
80/55...Oct. 10, Sun. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 15-30 mph...Record: 88-1938
85/65...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-40 mph......Record: 86-2010
82/64...Oct. 12, Tue. Mostly Cloudy, Few Sct'd Showers/Storms, SW Wind 20-30 mph...Record: 87-1930
58/52...Oct. 13, Wed. Mostly Cloudy with a Few Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, NW Winds 15-25 mph.
60/35...Oct. 14, Thu. Mostly Sunny, N Wind 5-10 mph.
66/35...Oct. 15, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SE Wind 5 mph.
74/48...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph.
80/60...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers & Storms Late, SW Wind 20-35 mph...Record: 86-1938
51/40...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.
55/30...Oct. 19, Tue. Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 5-10 mph.
58/30...Oct. 20, Wed. Sunny, NE Wind 5-10 mph.
63/33...Oct. 21, Thu. Sunny, S Wind 5-15 mph
72/49...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph
62/53...Oct. 23, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, NE Wind 10-15 mph
Drier than normal trend will be with us through October & November.
Brush & field fire risk will go up in October to November.
October precipitation anomalies below normal will dominate area. The main tropical storm & hurricane track from the western Caribbean to the Northeast U.S. with above normal rainfall. Areas from Virginia to Maine currently how the great potential of a landfalling tropical system in October.
Late in October, a landfalling tropical system is possible in Mexico with system orginating in the Bay of Campeche. That rainfall will promote above normal rainfall anomalies in parts of Texas to New Mexico & Arizona.
Usually, rainfall really cranks up in October from western Oregon to Washington.
This year, the main corridor of heavier rainfall in October will tend to be from far northwest Washington to British Columbia.
This will extend the dryness into a normally wetter time of year in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.
After an overall warmer & drier than normal October-November, it still appears winter will hit suddenly & pretty hard in December. I am still going for below normal temperatures & above normal precipitation with above normal snowfall in December.
This year, we have a better shot at a White Christmas.
We should then turn suddenly mild around New Year's Eve & the warmer, wetter weather should continue into early January.
Thoughts are that winter returns in late January with colder weather & snow, but the very end of December through early January may have little to no snow at all (after a snowy December).
Late January through the first entire half of February looks colder & snowier than normal, but then late February should turn nice & mild & thaw again.
March still favors above normal temperatures & precipitation with below normal snowfall.