Of greatest concern at the moment are the two supercells. One is near Covington with potential of marble hail & gusts to 55 mph. It is moving eastward.
The other is southwest of Champaign. That one is showing more northeasterly component to the track.
Line responsible for a lot of wind damage from eastern Iowa, through northern Illinois is approaching I-55. This will clip area as a broken line later this evening.
Wind fields are strong through the atmosphere with plenty of speed shear & slight directional shear, which supports severe weather. Good thing is that we have had stubborn cloudiness around a good chunk of the area today, which has limited the instability some. All the cloudiness here & northeast of our area is tending to limit severe & keep the worst of it eastern Iowa to northern Illinois.
Regardless, some severe risk continues until 11 p.m. with potential of a couple/few storms producing wind, hail, brief, weak tornado.
Storm Prediction Center has 40% chance of a Severe T'Storm Watch being issued for the area.
Here are the latest trends for the evening. Only change I see making to the forecast is inserting the potential of a few lingering showers into early Wednesday morning (25%) as takes a little while longer to get the cold front through.
- September 25, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 6, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 7, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 3, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 16, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 20, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 26, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 21, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update