The Burn Ban has how been expanded to 9 counties in Indiana.
Much of our northeastern counties are in a Moderate Drought with Abnormally Dry conditions elsewhere.
Since June 1, parts of the viewing area have only had 55% of the normal rainfall. Only the far southwest has seen near 100%.
This dry anomaly extends from Nebraska through Iowa, our area & then to Ontario & New England. West-central Iowa has seen the greatest anomalies in this band with some weather observations sites seeing just 25% of the normal rainfall in the June-July-August period.
In the past 30 days, pockets in south-central Indiana have seen 0 rainfall, while the viewing area has seen about 50-60% of normal.
In overwhelmingly, consistently anomalously warm regime since late May, the past 7 days have been a rarity. We have actually average below normal mean temperature-wise (largely due to such cool overnights [largely tied to dry air, clear skies & dry soil conditions], though many days have been near or above normal). This has not occurred since mid-May.
Tonight will feature a few clouds, followed by partly cloudy skies Saturday. After 46-56 this morning, lows tonight will run 54-61. Highs tomorrow should reach 84-90, though the humidity will be low.
Given the Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions, low humidity & strong south-southwest winds 20-40 mph, brush & field fire danger will be elevated over the viewing area.
Projected gusts (knots) via 3km North American Mesoscale model:
With partly cloudy skies, lows tomorrow night will run 63-66.
Partly cloudy skies should become mostly cloudy Sunday with highs 82-86 with a slight uptick in the humidity. South-southwest winds will run 20-35 mph.
Cold pocket displaced northwest of the area, lack of appreciable deeper-layer CAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft & the fact that the front will outrun the main lift, undercutting storms means lack of severe risk.
Winds at the surface & low levels will be parallel to the winds at 10,000-12,000', resulting in an ana-frontal (kata-front is more typical with much of the rainfall ahead of & along the front) set-up where much of the showers & storms occur in the cooler air behind the surface cold front.
So, the front may pass Sunday evening-night with a few showers/storms, but the better rainfall coverage will occur behind the front & tend to pass late Sunday night to part of Monday (highs 65-73) with peak coverage of 50%.
Periodic spotty to scattered showers/t'showers (with oscillating cloudy to mostly cloudy to partly cloudy periods) will occur Tuesday-Wednesday of next week as cold upper low pivots shortwave (cold pockets aloft) through the area. Winds will be strong from the west, then northwest to north-northwest with gusts +30 mph at times.
Any showers by Thursday should be isolated.
Surface high settles in Friday & robust flat cumulus development over the sky Friday should be scoured out later in the day (skies becoming sunny late). These clear skies & the the calming winds will lead to some patchy frost Friday night with lows of 34-40 over the area.
Much warmer weather should follow the week after as strong southwest winds kick in & warm western ridge moves eastward, in response to significant, windy, wet storm off the coasts of Washington, Oregon & California (product of merger of hurricane remnants & Pacific storm system).
We do need to watch the Gulf Coast, Florida Peninsula & East Coast for one or even two landfalling hurricanes in the October 7-21 period.