September 25, 5 PM Weather Forecast

After a surge of warmth, big changes are ahead mid to late next week.

Posted: Sep 25, 2020 2:57 PM
Updated: Sep 25, 2020 5:04 PM

The Burn Ban has how been expanded to 9 counties in Indiana.

Much of our northeastern counties are in a Moderate Drought with Abnormally Dry conditions elsewhere.

Since June 1, parts of the viewing area have only had 55% of the normal rainfall.  Only the far southwest has seen near 100%.

This dry anomaly extends from Nebraska through Iowa, our area & then to Ontario & New England.  West-central Iowa has seen the greatest anomalies in this band with some weather observations sites seeing just 25% of the normal rainfall in the June-July-August period.

In the past 30 days, pockets in south-central Indiana have seen 0 rainfall, while the viewing area has seen about 50-60% of normal.

In overwhelmingly, consistently anomalously warm regime since late May, the past 7 days have been a rarity.  We have actually average below normal mean temperature-wise (largely due to such cool overnights [largely tied to dry air, clear skies & dry soil conditions], though many days have been near or above normal).  This has not occurred since mid-May.

Tonight will feature a few clouds, followed by partly cloudy skies Saturday.  After 46-56 this morning, lows tonight will run 54-61.  Highs tomorrow should reach 84-90, though the humidity will be low.

Given the Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions, low humidity & strong south-southwest winds 20-40 mph, brush & field fire danger will be elevated over the viewing area.

Projected gusts (knots) via 3km North American Mesoscale model:

With partly cloudy skies, lows tomorrow night will run 63-66.

Partly cloudy skies should become mostly cloudy Sunday with highs 82-86 with a slight uptick in the humidity.  South-southwest winds will run 20-35 mph.

Cold pocket displaced northwest of the area, lack of appreciable deeper-layer CAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft & the fact that the front will outrun the main lift, undercutting storms means lack of severe risk.

Winds at the surface & low levels will be parallel to the winds at 10,000-12,000', resulting in an ana-frontal (kata-front is more typical with much of the rainfall ahead of & along the front) set-up where much of the showers & storms occur in the cooler air behind the surface cold front.

So, the front may pass Sunday evening-night with a few showers/storms, but the better rainfall coverage will occur behind the front & tend to pass late Sunday night to part of Monday (highs 65-73) with peak coverage of 50%.

Periodic spotty to scattered showers/t'showers (with oscillating cloudy to mostly cloudy to partly cloudy periods) will occur Tuesday-Wednesday of next week as cold upper low pivots shortwave (cold pockets aloft) through the area.  Winds will be strong from the west, then northwest to north-northwest with gusts +30 mph at times.

Any showers by Thursday should be isolated.

Surface high settles in Friday & robust flat cumulus development over the sky Friday should be scoured out later in the day (skies becoming sunny late).  These clear skies & the the calming winds will lead to some patchy frost Friday night with lows of 34-40 over the area.

Much warmer weather should follow the week after as strong southwest winds kick in & warm western ridge moves eastward, in response to significant, windy, wet storm off the coasts of Washington, Oregon & California (product of merger of hurricane remnants & Pacific storm system).

We do need to watch the Gulf Coast, Florida Peninsula & East Coast for one or even two landfalling hurricanes in the October 7-21 period. 

West Lafayette
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 42°
Kokomo
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44° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 40°
Rensselaer
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Hi: 41° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 41°
Fowler
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Hi: 41° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 41°
Williamsport
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43° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 40°
Crawfordsville
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43° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 43°
Frankfort
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47° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 47°
Delphi
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46° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 42°
Monticello
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43° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 43°
Logansport
Overcast
43° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 43°
Chilly and cloudy Tuesday
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 164581

Reported Deaths: 4143
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion26055792
Lake14436358
St. Joseph9606168
Elkhart9271138
Allen8647231
Hamilton6400115
Vanderburgh617162
Tippecanoe396715
Porter347550
Hendricks3418134
Monroe335638
Johnson3286130
Delaware311575
Clark306263
Vigo275340
Madison250896
LaPorte239261
Cass229724
Warrick205065
Kosciusko201127
Floyd187468
Howard169466
Bartholomew147958
Marshall147428
Dubois146426
Wayne142031
Grant133539
Henry133030
Boone129150
Hancock124744
Noble122935
Jackson121018
Dearborn103128
Morgan100340
Lawrence96838
Gibson94412
Clinton92416
Daviess92334
Shelby90632
LaGrange82815
Knox81810
Harrison81024
Posey7767
Putnam77616
Fayette76719
DeKalb76011
Jasper6885
Miami6715
Steuben6608
Montgomery63122
White62316
Greene57838
Adams5607
Scott55413
Decatur52839
Ripley4838
Whitley4836
Clay4617
Sullivan45714
Wells45611
Huntington4455
Starke4438
Wabash4439
Orange42425
Spencer4176
Randolph39210
Jennings38713
Washington3873
Franklin38325
Fulton3785
Perry36914
Jefferson3655
Pike35718
Carroll34313
Jay3386
Fountain3293
Tipton28423
Vermillion2721
Parke2564
Rush2464
Blackford2394
Newton23711
Owen2151
Martin2050
Pulaski1783
Crawford1631
Brown1473
Ohio1337
Union1140
Benton1130
Switzerland980
Warren911
Unassigned0236

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