A few showers & t'showers are possible this afternoon, but numerous showers & storms will blossom tonight & last into Tuesday morning.
Locally-heavy rainfall & a couple of smaller hailers are possible during the overnight to morning hours of Tuesday.
This rainfall should gradually exit by midday-early afternoon.
It will be a much warmer night with lows only around 66 as warm front advances northward. Strong southerly winds should overspread the area.
After a brief break with a little sun perhaps in the early afternoon, scattered multi-cells & supercells, followed by a broken squall line of storms should pass with severe weather risk in the 3-11 p.m. time frame. Gusty southerly winds & highs in the 80s (with high humidity) will occur in the afternoon.
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather for the entire area.
Main threat is wind with hail & isolated tornadoes as lesser risks. Localized flash flooding is possible from heavy rainfall as there will be a lot of water to squeeze out as tropical air moves northward into the area.
CIPS from St. Louis University shows that analog matches distribute the severe weather this way. Strongest match was September 25, 1984.
1-2" of rainfall is likely for the area with the +3" rains staying southeast of us.
Wednesday will be breezy to windy, dry & cooler with highs in the 65-70 range.