SEVERE WX : Flash Flood Watch View Alerts

September 24, 11 AM: Coolest Morning Since May 8, Increasingly Wet & Stormy Early Week

After a cool morning in the 40s, widespread rainfall & now even severe weather risk, will overspread the viewing area early in the week.

Posted: Sep 23, 2018 10:17 AM
Updated: Sep 23, 2018 1:39 PM

Lows this morning of 45-48 were the coolest since early May.

Today will be sunny before some increasing clouds later with northeast to east winds.

Highs will reach 70 to the 70s.

Scattered showers & a few storms arrive tomorrow morning & will be with us periodically through tomorrow as warm front lifts northward.

Some sun may try to poke through at times with highs in the 70s & increasing southeast winds.

With strong low-level jet nosing in Monday night-early Tuesday morning, numerous showers/storms are likely.  There is the risk of a few producing small hail.  If the elevated instability can increase enough then the potential of an isolated severe hailer or two may have to introduced to the forecast for the night-time to early morning hours.  Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

Winds will become strong & gusty fromthe south by Tuesday morning.  Lows will only run in the 60s to near 70.

One distinct forecast trend change noticed is between the showers/storms in the morning & the afternoon cold front is some lulling with the appearance of some sunshine.

With strong, gusty south to southwest winds Tuesday afternoon & the approach of a strong cold front with strong dynamics/wind fields & forcing & some sunshine with temperatures in the lower 80s, severe risk will be in place.  Dew points will run near 70.

Note the high humidity streaming back northward.

Looks like a squall line of storms right ahead of the cold front will form & sweep the area Tuesday late afternoon-evening.  However, there may even be a few supercell-type storms that form ahead of it in the sheared, dynamic environment.

Main threat would be damaging wind gusts.  If some supercell-type storms do indeed form ahead of the line, then other threats may occur like hail/tornado risk.

Widespread 1-2" of rainfall is likely for the area Monday-Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be dry, breezy to windy & cooler.

A secondary cold front Thursday night will re enforce the cooler air in, leading to highs in the 60s & lows in the 30s & 40s by the end of next week.  This would be the coolest weather since the end of April.

Article Comments

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