6 Indiana counties are now under Burn Bans due to expanding drought over the state.
The closest counties to our area are Vermillion & Parke.
This is part of a worsening drought from Nebraska & Iowa to Maine.
The worst drought conditions are in Nebraska & western Iowa & then Rhone Island, Massachusetts & Maine.
Extensive Extreme Drought also extends from Oregon to Colorado & Wyoming.
Given the La Nina & current pattern set-up drought conditions should improve from Oregon to Iowa & through our area to New England this winter, but greatly worsen over the Southeast U.S., Southern Plains & over much of the West south of a far southern Oregon to Kansas line.
High & mid clouds (courtesy of the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta) will continue to make the sky rather mostly cloudy with dim to faint sun this afternoon-evening & into tonight.
However, skies should clear later on tonight with lows 47-56.
Some patchy fog is possible later tonight to early Thursday morning.
Thursday (highs 79-84), Friday (81-86), Saturday (85-90) look warmer with southwest to south winds & hazy sunshine. Overnight lows will run in the 50s to 60s with some patchy fog.
Sunday morning now looks 100% dry. With breezy to windy conditions from the southwest, it still appears a broken line of storms may form on the cold front. It should pass in the late afternoon-evening after highs of 83-88.
Dynamics & shear support some severe weather risk (on the order of SLIGHT), however, instability is a limiting factor due to the colder air aloft being displaced northwest of the front. This should limit ML CAPE overall & keep severe risk down to up to MARGINAL for part of the area.
Monday will feature sunshine & strong winds from the west at 15-30 mph with highs 72-78. However, clouds will increase in the PM with a few scattered showers & storms coming in from the northwest late.
With cold air aloft Tuesday behind second cold front in overall upper troughiness, a scattered of showers & t'showers should bubble up in the heating of the afternoon with northwest winds 15-30 mph & highs 67-74.
A scattering of some showers & a few t'showers are likely Wednesday as cumulus bubble up in the cold air aloft with north winds 15-30 mph & highs 64-69. Isolated small hail is possible
This deep upper trough will continue to carve out Wednesday night as combination of two tropical systems & a deep Siberian/Russian/Chinese upper trough metamorphosizes into very powerful Bering Sea to then Gulf of Alaska storm. This will, in-turn, cause very amplified pattern with intense upper ridge western Canada through the western U.S. Record heat is possible, especially in California.
Santa Ana & Diablo Wind event is possible with extreme wildfire danger developing in California late next week.
Meanwhile, strong Canadian surface high will settle over our area by Friday. This means a clear sky with calm winds Friday night, which will lead to the coldest night of the Fall so far at 35-41 over the area.
It appears that the remnants of that powerhouse Alaskan storm will drift southeastward toward Washington & Oregon to California. The remnants of either Hurricane Lowell or Marie may merge with the weakening & highly-occluded storm at that point.
It could re-energize off the coast of Washington, Oregon & California, bringing that area high winds (possibly damaging winds....especially those funneled through valleys & canyons) from the southwest. The storm would form a very deep trough in the Far West with heavy rainfall moving into the Pacific Northwest & as far south as California.
This means huge, hot upper ridge moving eastward & overspreading the Plains & Midwest.
This ridge also means that developing hurricane in the Yucatan area would get pulled northeast & northward toward the Gulf Coast. So, we need to watch for hurricane impacts along the Gulf Coast anywhere from the Florida to Texas in the October 7-16 time frame
Very warm weather may dominate many days after October 5. Rainfall potential looks pretty spotty.
However, there are signs that a strong cold front will pass around October 16, bringing the first widespread 30-35 lows for the viewing area around October 17-18.
Another hurricane is possible in the October 21-23 frame, but it would tend to get pulled up into the Floria Peninsula area.
That one could then ride up the East Coast & produce damage from Florida to Maine, eventually evolving into major hybrid storm near Massachusetts & Maine. In-turn, it would dislodge another chunk of chilly weather here. So, after a warm-up, we would see additional frost & freezing in the October 25-26 time frame.
Beyond that, beif ridge in the Plains should move eastward & we may end October on a very warm note in the 70s.
Overall, rainfall is not too impressive with below-normal rainfall shaping up for October.