September 23, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest forecast update for the period now to the end of October.

Posted: Sep 23, 2020 3:45 PM
Updated: Sep 23, 2020 4:32 PM

6 Indiana counties are now under Burn Bans due to expanding drought over the state.

The closest counties to our area are Vermillion & Parke.

This is part of a worsening drought from Nebraska & Iowa to Maine. 

The worst drought conditions are in Nebraska & western Iowa & then Rhone Island, Massachusetts & Maine.

Extensive Extreme Drought also extends from Oregon to Colorado & Wyoming.

Given the La Nina & current pattern set-up drought conditions should improve from Oregon to Iowa & through our area to New England this winter, but greatly worsen over the Southeast U.S., Southern Plains & over much of the West south of a far southern Oregon to Kansas line.

 High & mid clouds (courtesy of the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta) will continue to make the sky rather mostly cloudy with dim to faint sun this afternoon-evening & into tonight.

However, skies should clear later on tonight with lows 47-56.

Some patchy fog is possible later tonight to early Thursday morning.

Thursday (highs 79-84), Friday (81-86), Saturday (85-90) look warmer with southwest to south winds & hazy sunshine.  Overnight lows will run in the 50s to 60s with some patchy fog.

Sunday morning now looks 100% dry.  With breezy to windy conditions from the southwest, it still appears a broken line of storms may form on the cold front.  It should pass in the late afternoon-evening after highs of 83-88.

Dynamics & shear support some severe weather risk (on the order of SLIGHT), however, instability is a limiting factor due to the colder air aloft being displaced northwest of the front.  This should limit ML CAPE overall & keep severe risk down to up to MARGINAL for part of the area.

Monday will feature sunshine & strong winds from the west at 15-30 mph with highs 72-78.  However, clouds will increase in the PM with a few scattered showers & storms coming in from the northwest late.

With cold air aloft Tuesday behind second cold front in overall upper troughiness, a scattered of showers & t'showers should bubble up in the heating of the afternoon with northwest winds 15-30 mph & highs 67-74.

A scattering of some showers & a few t'showers are likely Wednesday as cumulus bubble up in the cold air aloft with north winds 15-30 mph & highs 64-69.  Isolated small hail is possible

This deep upper trough will continue to carve out Wednesday night as combination of two tropical systems & a deep Siberian/Russian/Chinese upper trough metamorphosizes into very powerful Bering Sea to then Gulf of Alaska storm.  This will, in-turn, cause very amplified pattern with intense upper ridge western Canada through the western U.S.  Record heat is possible, especially in California.

Santa Ana & Diablo Wind event is possible with extreme wildfire danger developing in California late next week.

Meanwhile, strong Canadian surface high will settle over our area by Friday.  This means a clear sky with calm winds Friday night, which will lead to the coldest night of the Fall so far at 35-41 over the area.

It appears that the remnants of that powerhouse Alaskan storm will drift southeastward toward Washington & Oregon to California.  The remnants of either Hurricane Lowell or Marie may merge with the weakening & highly-occluded storm at that point.

It could re-energize off the coast of Washington, Oregon & California, bringing that area high winds (possibly damaging winds....especially those funneled through valleys & canyons) from the southwest.  The storm would form a very deep trough in the Far West with heavy rainfall moving into the Pacific Northwest & as far south as California.

This means huge, hot upper ridge moving eastward & overspreading the Plains & Midwest.

This ridge also means that developing hurricane in the Yucatan area would get pulled northeast & northward toward the Gulf Coast.  So, we need to watch for hurricane impacts along the Gulf Coast anywhere from the Florida to Texas in the October 7-16 time frame

Very warm weather may dominate many days after October 5.  Rainfall potential looks pretty spotty.

However, there are signs that a strong cold front will pass around October 16, bringing the first widespread 30-35 lows for the viewing area around October 17-18.

Another hurricane is possible in the October 21-23 frame, but it would tend to get pulled up into the Floria Peninsula area.

That one could then ride up the East Coast & produce damage from Florida to Maine, eventually evolving into major hybrid storm near Massachusetts & Maine.  In-turn, it would dislodge another chunk of chilly weather here.  So, after a warm-up, we would see additional frost & freezing in the October 25-26 time frame.

Beyond that, beif ridge in the Plains should move eastward & we may end October on a very warm note in the 70s.

Overall, rainfall is not too impressive with below-normal rainfall shaping up for October.

West Lafayette
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
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45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Rensselaer
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41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 41°
Fowler
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 41°
Williamsport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 38°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 39°
Frankfort
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 42°
Delphi
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Monticello
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Logansport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 164581

Reported Deaths: 4143
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion26055792
Lake14436358
St. Joseph9606168
Elkhart9271138
Allen8647231
Hamilton6400115
Vanderburgh617162
Tippecanoe396715
Porter347550
Hendricks3418134
Monroe335638
Johnson3286130
Delaware311575
Clark306263
Vigo275340
Madison250896
LaPorte239261
Cass229724
Warrick205065
Kosciusko201127
Floyd187468
Howard169466
Bartholomew147958
Marshall147428
Dubois146426
Wayne142031
Grant133539
Henry133030
Boone129150
Hancock124744
Noble122935
Jackson121018
Dearborn103128
Morgan100340
Lawrence96838
Gibson94412
Clinton92416
Daviess92334
Shelby90632
LaGrange82815
Knox81810
Harrison81024
Posey7767
Putnam77616
Fayette76719
DeKalb76011
Jasper6885
Miami6715
Steuben6608
Montgomery63122
White62316
Greene57838
Adams5607
Scott55413
Decatur52839
Ripley4838
Whitley4836
Clay4617
Sullivan45714
Wells45611
Huntington4455
Starke4438
Wabash4439
Orange42425
Spencer4176
Randolph39210
Jennings38713
Washington3873
Franklin38325
Fulton3785
Perry36914
Jefferson3655
Pike35718
Carroll34313
Jay3386
Fountain3293
Tipton28423
Vermillion2721
Parke2564
Rush2464
Blackford2394
Newton23711
Owen2151
Martin2050
Pulaski1783
Crawford1631
Brown1473
Ohio1337
Union1140
Benton1130
Switzerland980
Warren911
Unassigned0236

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