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September 23, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest forecast update for the period now to the end of October.

Posted: Sep 23, 2020 3:45 PM
Updated: Sep 23, 2020 4:32 PM

6 Indiana counties are now under Burn Bans due to expanding drought over the state.

The closest counties to our area are Vermillion & Parke.

This is part of a worsening drought from Nebraska & Iowa to Maine. 

The worst drought conditions are in Nebraska & western Iowa & then Rhone Island, Massachusetts & Maine.

Extensive Extreme Drought also extends from Oregon to Colorado & Wyoming.

Given the La Nina & current pattern set-up drought conditions should improve from Oregon to Iowa & through our area to New England this winter, but greatly worsen over the Southeast U.S., Southern Plains & over much of the West south of a far southern Oregon to Kansas line.

 High & mid clouds (courtesy of the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta) will continue to make the sky rather mostly cloudy with dim to faint sun this afternoon-evening & into tonight.

However, skies should clear later on tonight with lows 47-56.

Some patchy fog is possible later tonight to early Thursday morning.

Thursday (highs 79-84), Friday (81-86), Saturday (85-90) look warmer with southwest to south winds & hazy sunshine.  Overnight lows will run in the 50s to 60s with some patchy fog.

Sunday morning now looks 100% dry.  With breezy to windy conditions from the southwest, it still appears a broken line of storms may form on the cold front.  It should pass in the late afternoon-evening after highs of 83-88.

Dynamics & shear support some severe weather risk (on the order of SLIGHT), however, instability is a limiting factor due to the colder air aloft being displaced northwest of the front.  This should limit ML CAPE overall & keep severe risk down to up to MARGINAL for part of the area.

Monday will feature sunshine & strong winds from the west at 15-30 mph with highs 72-78.  However, clouds will increase in the PM with a few scattered showers & storms coming in from the northwest late.

With cold air aloft Tuesday behind second cold front in overall upper troughiness, a scattered of showers & t'showers should bubble up in the heating of the afternoon with northwest winds 15-30 mph & highs 67-74.

A scattering of some showers & a few t'showers are likely Wednesday as cumulus bubble up in the cold air aloft with north winds 15-30 mph & highs 64-69.  Isolated small hail is possible

This deep upper trough will continue to carve out Wednesday night as combination of two tropical systems & a deep Siberian/Russian/Chinese upper trough metamorphosizes into very powerful Bering Sea to then Gulf of Alaska storm.  This will, in-turn, cause very amplified pattern with intense upper ridge western Canada through the western U.S.  Record heat is possible, especially in California.

Santa Ana & Diablo Wind event is possible with extreme wildfire danger developing in California late next week.

Meanwhile, strong Canadian surface high will settle over our area by Friday.  This means a clear sky with calm winds Friday night, which will lead to the coldest night of the Fall so far at 35-41 over the area.

It appears that the remnants of that powerhouse Alaskan storm will drift southeastward toward Washington & Oregon to California.  The remnants of either Hurricane Lowell or Marie may merge with the weakening & highly-occluded storm at that point.

It could re-energize off the coast of Washington, Oregon & California, bringing that area high winds (possibly damaging winds....especially those funneled through valleys & canyons) from the southwest.  The storm would form a very deep trough in the Far West with heavy rainfall moving into the Pacific Northwest & as far south as California.

This means huge, hot upper ridge moving eastward & overspreading the Plains & Midwest.

This ridge also means that developing hurricane in the Yucatan area would get pulled northeast & northward toward the Gulf Coast.  So, we need to watch for hurricane impacts along the Gulf Coast anywhere from the Florida to Texas in the October 7-16 time frame

Very warm weather may dominate many days after October 5.  Rainfall potential looks pretty spotty.

However, there are signs that a strong cold front will pass around October 16, bringing the first widespread 30-35 lows for the viewing area around October 17-18.

Another hurricane is possible in the October 21-23 frame, but it would tend to get pulled up into the Floria Peninsula area.

That one could then ride up the East Coast & produce damage from Florida to Maine, eventually evolving into major hybrid storm near Massachusetts & Maine.  In-turn, it would dislodge another chunk of chilly weather here.  So, after a warm-up, we would see additional frost & freezing in the October 25-26 time frame.

Beyond that, beif ridge in the Plains should move eastward & we may end October on a very warm note in the 70s.

Overall, rainfall is not too impressive with below-normal rainfall shaping up for October.

Lafayette
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
Kokomo
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 21°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 32°
Lafayette
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 36°
Danville
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 39° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 27°
Frankfort
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 22°
Frankfort
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 22°
Monticello
Cloudy
31° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 31°
Monticello
Cloudy
31° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 31°
Logansport
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 25°
Snow to Two Nights of Freezing...
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 708779

Reported Deaths: 13226
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion966191721
Lake51761946
Allen39224672
Hamilton34549405
St. Joseph34157541
Elkhart27356432
Vanderburgh22081394
Tippecanoe21853212
Porter17935299
Johnson17544374
Hendricks16822310
Clark12697190
Madison12353337
Vigo12219244
Monroe11469166
LaPorte11162204
Delaware10366184
Howard9664211
Kosciusko9134114
Hancock7990139
Bartholomew7893155
Warrick7691155
Floyd7563176
Wayne6906198
Grant6844171
Boone6556100
Morgan6405138
Dubois6085117
Marshall5786108
Dearborn570376
Cass5685102
Henry5579101
Noble542683
Jackson493569
Shelby479495
Lawrence4342118
Gibson429089
Harrison428570
Clinton419753
Montgomery418086
DeKalb411184
Whitley380239
Huntington379880
Miami372865
Knox366689
Steuben365757
Putnam353160
Jasper350946
Wabash347878
Adams338052
Ripley334668
Jefferson313180
White308454
Daviess289499
Wells286481
Decatur279092
Fayette277262
Greene270785
Posey268833
Scott261153
LaGrange253670
Clay253544
Randolph235680
Washington231031
Spencer228031
Jennings225047
Fountain208845
Sullivan207942
Starke204752
Owen192356
Fulton192039
Jay186429
Carroll185920
Perry180736
Orange177853
Rush170724
Vermillion166043
Franklin165635
Tipton161043
Parke144616
Blackford133831
Pike130334
Pulaski113845
Newton104234
Brown100140
Crawford97614
Benton97113
Martin82915
Warren79715
Switzerland7698
Union69910
Ohio55811
Unassigned0408

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