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September 22, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Below normal rainfall trend will continue.

Posted: Sep 22, 2020 10:42 AM
Updated: Sep 22, 2020 11:37 AM

It was a blazing hot summer across New England & the Great Lakes & to the Midwest with cities seeing their hottest summer since 2012, 1995, even 1930s or (like some cities....Chicago, etc.) their hottest summer on record.  It was CONSISTENCY with the heat, rather than one or two or three big 100s heatwaves that brought this about.

However, having said that, it is interesting to note that the very same cities in the Northeast & parts of the Great Lakes have seen the SHORTEST period between their first mid 30s with frost & last mid 30s since the mid 1960s.  The mid to late May chill & now the mid-September chill has made for a short frost-free season.  Some areas saw a freeze in late May, only to see a freeze in mid-September after a near record warm summer, which is quite unusual.

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The next potential of any sort of scattered rainfall would be September 27 & then again around the 29th, followed by a cool-down to 60s & 70s after 80s this week & lots of hazy sunshine & cool nights.  We will likely see some 30s & 40s lows again behind this cold front.

The remnants of Beta should stay largely southeast of our area.

Otherwise, there isn't much brewing rainfall-wise through October 10, other than perhaps a couple showers along a cold front around October 6.

October still looks drier than normal.

Temperatures still look overall above normal for October.

However, there will likely be a period amidst this of cool troughiness here with a big ridge in the West & a dangerous Santa Ana event in California with extreme wildfire danger in October.

One thing I have noticed in the La Nina data now & in model projections, that the core of the cold anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific has shown potential shift a bit more to the West.  It doesn't reach Modoki criteria (coldest in more the central Equatorial than eastern Equatorial Pacific), but recently & in projections for January & February, a shift to the west a bit.

That puts the cold, cold, snowy weather a bir farther east & southeast.  We are still warmer than normal, but we have a higher potential of more cold shots & more intense cold shots........IF this occurs.

So, rather than cold, cold, snowy weather the Pacific northwest & northern Rockies to Northern Plains & northwestern Great Lakes, it is Northern Plains, northwestern Great Lakes to perhaps northwestern New England.  Again, it also gives us a higher potential of colder shots & more in the way of snow.

This is not set in stone, but an observation & something to watch.  Not all La Ninas are alike & it is a lot of moving parts with other indices that combine with it & its strength to determine overall Fall, early, mid & late Winter to Spring patterns.

With this kind of precipitation anomaly we will have (above to well-above normal), it you get the right timing of such a cold shot, you can get a big, big snow (even in a milder winter overall).

Again, you will notice that even with this shift, we are warmer than normal.

If we see an even bigger shift westward & this become a La Nina Modoki & strengthens, then you need to talk about a colder winter than what has been seen since last spring for 2020-21.  We will also monitor the PDO, PNA, MJO projections & all other sea surface temperature anomalies.  I will talk about & update this winter, spring & summer 2020-21 forecasts frequently.

However, there continues to be a trend to keep that bitter cold & snow where it looked to be all along in spring:  Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, northwestern Great Lakes.  It looks warmer, wetter & stormier than normal here (potentially most severe weather in the spring since 2011).

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