September 21, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on rainfall timing Sunday.

Posted: Sep 21, 2019 3:39 PM
Updated: Sep 21, 2019 4:17 PM

We are already seeing earmarks of the winter regime a bit.  The unseasonably cold weather in western & central Canada (high of 33 with low near 20 with snow in Calgary, Alberta next week [with many trees that will still be fully-clothed in foliage, even if it is in the process of changing color] & hard freezing on the move southward into the Rockies) & the unseasonable hot upper ridge in the Southeast with more mid 90s & record warmth for the South & then moving up into the Northeast.

It is a battle that the Southeast ridge is showing signs of winning as it expands again by next weekend.

It still looks like some of that cold in Canada, the Rockies & Northern Plains may be discharged in early October.

These extremes will be a winter mainstay with a lot of cold & warm extremes & "Polar Vortex" episodes interspersed with sudden mass thaws with t'storms & spring warmth.  High wind events will buffer the extremes (like last winter).

Should average out between all the fluctations colder, wetter & snowier than normal.

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MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up viewing area-wide for Sunday.

I think that if there is an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK anywhere, it would be from south-central Illinois, through Missouri to Oklahoma, not here.

We will monitor.

Any rainfall morning through afternoon looks very spotty & brief as main area of rainfall slows down.

With this slow-down it may rain heavily & storm west of us all night tonight through Sunday.  Given already high rivers from recent heavy rainfall from the Plains to western & northwestern Corn Belt, the 3-8" totals will lead to a lot of flash & then renewed river flooding.

This means a windy (south to south-southwest 15-30 mph) & drier Sunday & a very warm to hot one, too (with clouds/sun).  I went for highs back to 84-90 (heat indices 88-94) after only 69-74 tonight.  Much of the area will be 87-90, while the northwest will be a bit cooler at 84.

Note the line of storms with bows & LEWPs Missouri to Illinois by Sunday mid- to late-afternoon & all of the heavy rainfall.

This should move eastward & impact our northwestern counties by 4 p.m., get to Benton County by 5:30 p.m. & train over that western/northwestern county zone through 8 p.m. before it makes more headway eastward into Tippecanoe County & the heart of the viewing area.

Line will gradually weaken as front gradually becomes anafrontal, but the risk of an isolated severe storm or two is up from 4-9 p.m. for the viewing area.

Widespread rainfall in a band should follow the line Sunday night.

Line should continue to weaken to next to nothing more than a wind shift & cool down once it exits our area.  It will substantially outrun the band of rainfall as cold front becomes completely anafrontal (rainfall occurs nearly completely behind the front as winds at mid-levels completely parallel the surface frontal boundary).

Any lingering showers will exit Monday morning, followed by partly cloudy skies & highs 70-76 with areas of fog & lows of 47-51 Monday night.

It appeared that two bands of heavier rainfall would set up in our area in yesterday's data:  northwest areas & southeast areas (2" amounts) with an overall 1-2" rain area-wide.

Latest data suggests the western & northwestern areas may see 1-2.5" of rainfall, while the rest of the area sees 1" of rainfall or a bit less.

Next potential of any rainfall (after low to mid 70s highs Tuesday) would be Tuesday late evening-night & again Wednesday late (highs 75-80 Wednesday).

Count on summery weather next weekend with 85-90 after 80-85 Friday & 70s Thursday.

Warm front will surge northward, bathing us in warmth & humidity with strong south to southwest winds.  This will occur as very potent Southeast U.S. subtropical ridge re-expands to the north & northwest.

Storms are possible perhaps Saturday night to Sunday with some severe risk.  We will monitor.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 32078

Reported Deaths: 2004
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9268539
Lake3320168
Cass15826
Allen130966
St. Joseph120534
Hendricks113067
Hamilton111592
Johnson1086104
Elkhart105728
Madison58258
Porter49021
Bartholomew48133
Clark46138
LaPorte41522
Tippecanoe3753
Jackson3671
Howard36519
Delaware35735
Hancock32127
Shelby31521
Floyd31438
Boone28835
Morgan26224
Vanderburgh2482
Montgomery23117
White2268
Decatur22431
Clinton2221
Grant19121
Noble18921
Harrison18721
Dubois1852
Greene16724
Warrick16426
Dearborn16421
Henry1619
Monroe16011
Vigo1477
Lawrence14423
Miami1391
Putnam1337
Jennings1274
Orange12422
Scott1183
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Kosciusko941
Carroll922
Daviess8216
Steuben802
Marshall761
Newton7410
Wabash722
Wayne715
Fayette684
LaGrange602
Jasper581
Washington521
Fulton471
Rush452
Jay440
Randolph433
Jefferson411
Whitley402
Pulaski390
Clay391
Owen341
Brown331
Sullivan321
Starke313
DeKalb311
Perry260
Huntington262
Knox250
Tipton251
Benton250
Wells240
Crawford230
Blackford211
Switzerland190
Fountain182
Spencer171
Posey170
Parke170
Gibson142
Ohio130
Warren121
Adams121
Vermillion90
Martin90
Union80
Pike60
Unassigned0154
West Lafayette
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 70°
Kokomo
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 70°
Rensselaer
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 68°
Fowler
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 70°
Williamsport
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 70°
Crawfordsville
Broken Clouds
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 65°
Frankfort
Clear
69° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 69°
Delphi
Scattered Clouds
67° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 67°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
67° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 67°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
72° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Some more storms ahead....
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