September 21, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on rainfall timing Sunday.

Posted: Sep 21, 2019 3:39 PM
Updated: Sep 21, 2019 4:17 PM

We are already seeing earmarks of the winter regime a bit.  The unseasonably cold weather in western & central Canada (high of 33 with low near 20 with snow in Calgary, Alberta next week [with many trees that will still be fully-clothed in foliage, even if it is in the process of changing color] & hard freezing on the move southward into the Rockies) & the unseasonable hot upper ridge in the Southeast with more mid 90s & record warmth for the South & then moving up into the Northeast.

It is a battle that the Southeast ridge is showing signs of winning as it expands again by next weekend.

It still looks like some of that cold in Canada, the Rockies & Northern Plains may be discharged in early October.

These extremes will be a winter mainstay with a lot of cold & warm extremes & "Polar Vortex" episodes interspersed with sudden mass thaws with t'storms & spring warmth.  High wind events will buffer the extremes (like last winter).

Should average out between all the fluctations colder, wetter & snowier than normal.

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MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up viewing area-wide for Sunday.

I think that if there is an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK anywhere, it would be from south-central Illinois, through Missouri to Oklahoma, not here.

We will monitor.

Any rainfall morning through afternoon looks very spotty & brief as main area of rainfall slows down.

With this slow-down it may rain heavily & storm west of us all night tonight through Sunday.  Given already high rivers from recent heavy rainfall from the Plains to western & northwestern Corn Belt, the 3-8" totals will lead to a lot of flash & then renewed river flooding.

This means a windy (south to south-southwest 15-30 mph) & drier Sunday & a very warm to hot one, too (with clouds/sun).  I went for highs back to 84-90 (heat indices 88-94) after only 69-74 tonight.  Much of the area will be 87-90, while the northwest will be a bit cooler at 84.

Note the line of storms with bows & LEWPs Missouri to Illinois by Sunday mid- to late-afternoon & all of the heavy rainfall.

This should move eastward & impact our northwestern counties by 4 p.m., get to Benton County by 5:30 p.m. & train over that western/northwestern county zone through 8 p.m. before it makes more headway eastward into Tippecanoe County & the heart of the viewing area.

Line will gradually weaken as front gradually becomes anafrontal, but the risk of an isolated severe storm or two is up from 4-9 p.m. for the viewing area.

Widespread rainfall in a band should follow the line Sunday night.

Line should continue to weaken to next to nothing more than a wind shift & cool down once it exits our area.  It will substantially outrun the band of rainfall as cold front becomes completely anafrontal (rainfall occurs nearly completely behind the front as winds at mid-levels completely parallel the surface frontal boundary).

Any lingering showers will exit Monday morning, followed by partly cloudy skies & highs 70-76 with areas of fog & lows of 47-51 Monday night.

It appeared that two bands of heavier rainfall would set up in our area in yesterday's data:  northwest areas & southeast areas (2" amounts) with an overall 1-2" rain area-wide.

Latest data suggests the western & northwestern areas may see 1-2.5" of rainfall, while the rest of the area sees 1" of rainfall or a bit less.

Next potential of any rainfall (after low to mid 70s highs Tuesday) would be Tuesday late evening-night & again Wednesday late (highs 75-80 Wednesday).

Count on summery weather next weekend with 85-90 after 80-85 Friday & 70s Thursday.

Warm front will surge northward, bathing us in warmth & humidity with strong south to southwest winds.  This will occur as very potent Southeast U.S. subtropical ridge re-expands to the north & northwest.

Storms are possible perhaps Saturday night to Sunday with some severe risk.  We will monitor.

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Snow Returns Sunday
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