Hurricane Dorian has devastated the Bahamas.
The hurricane will get extremely close to Florida with the east-central coast getting swiped by hurricane-force winds.
It will eventually make the turn more to the northwest, north, then northeast.
Right now, it is painstakingly close to Florida, but a very compact storm. However, the eyewall is just 80 miles east of West Palm Beach. We are now getting gusts to 54 mph near Port St. Lucie.
Note how our trough gives Dorian the big push & shove to the north & northeast. Colors show the winds at around 2 miles up.
That trough & a surface cold front will help to bring some severe storms to the area Tuesday evening in generally the 6-11 p.m. time frame.
Looks like storms will collapse as they approach northwestern counties late AM-midday, followed by potentially two broken lines of storms with main threat being wind. Multi-cells, supercells & a bow or two will tend to occur with the two lines.
However, some directional low-level shear is noted, leading to mention of the potential of a brief tornado or two, but main tornado risk corridor will be along the warm front over Lower Michigan.
Isolated hail is possible.
At this point, it is possible that a corridor of ENHANCED RISK is possible that would cover Newton, Jasper to Pulaski to northwestern Benton counties with SLIGHT elsewhere & MARGINAL on the far southeastern fringe.
We will see.
Projected soundings support this.
Right now, it is a SLIGHT to MARGINAL RISK map from SPC.
A weak shortwave will pass Wednesday with cumulus/stratocumulus & sun with a couple isolated showers/sprinkles (& north-northwest wind 10-20 mph).
Thursday looks 100% dry with sunshine & scattered cumulus clouds with a nice northwest wind.
A shortwave & surface cold front will pass Friday with lots of cumulus clouds developing & few isolated showers with west winds.
Another couple of shortwaves will pass Saturday & Sunday with largely diurnal (daytime) cumulus clouds & a few isolated showers with northwest to west winds
Front will begin to migrate back northward as a warm front with skies becoming mostly cloudy Monday. Some rainfall is possible late with east to southeast winds.
Next week will be the start of an overall wetter period for mid-September.
Initially, temperatures will oscillate between below & above normal, before a streak of above normal temperatures with humid weather occurs mid-month.
Mid-September looks wetter than normal overall.
There will likely be a couple opportunities for severe weather here, given this pattern.
Also, given the deep Pacific moisture & the Pacific tropical activity, a band of that heavier rainfall you can see feeding up from Mexico & Baja California to our area.
Late September looks a bit wetter than normal with temperatures averaging above normal.
Early October looks a little cooler than normal.
Patchy frost is possible as we start October with lows in the 30s around October 1-2.
It also looks drier than normal.
October 10-15 looks warmer than normal, followed by colder pattern after October 15.
Normal rainfall looks to be the trend for that period right now.
- September 20, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 21, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 6, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 7, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 25, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 3, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 16, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- September 24, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update