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September 2, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on bursts of heat, cool-downs & the tropics.

Posted: Sep 2, 2020 3:42 PM
Updated: Sep 2, 2020 9:10 PM

Chicago just had their hottest summer on record (mean temperature), even beating the 1930s & 1950s hot, hot summers.  It was also one of the drier summers of record with 7.75".  Some cities in the Northeast saw their driest or second driest summer on record.  For example, it was the driest summer on record at Hartford, CT.  Dulles Airport, in the mid-Atlantic D.C. area even had their 3rd driest summer on record.

It was the hottest summer ON RECORD in many areas of the Northeast U.S. with a few days seeing 100s.  It was the hottest at Harrisburg, PA; Burlington, VT; La Guardia Airport, NY; Caribou, ME; Portland, ME; Bridgport, CT; Williamsport, PA; Providence, RI & Hartford, CT.  Scranton, PA; Buffalo, NY; Worcester, MA; Atlantic City, NJ; Islip, NY; Dulles Airport, D.C........................& the list goes on & on...........had their 2nd hottest summer on record.

Every major climate observation site in the Northeast U.S. was at least nearly 5 degrees above the normal mean temperature for the June-July-August period.  Impressive indeed.

Like here, it wasn't that it was 105 this summer, but VERY CONSISTENT heat with very few breaks at all.  In those summers with 105 or 107 you will get some big breaks in the heat.  This summer was just hot & muggy all across the board with nearly every day above normal.  I saw 9 occurrences of mid 90s officially at Greater Lafayette & mid 90s occurred in June, July & August.  In 2012, it was boiling hot June & July, but cool & wet in August, which tempered the average.

There were very few nights that our temperature dropped below 60.

The biggest pattern change seen since mid-May is ahead for a period after September 10 with below to well-below normal temperatures for a bit.

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First....................

Lows this morning ran 66-70 with highs today at 79-85.  This, after highs of 79-84 yesterday.

Tonight should feature partly cloudy skies over much of the area (mostly cloudy south) with patchy fog possible late & lows 61-68 (coolest north).

Thursday looks mostly sunny to sunny, then increasing clouds late with a narrow, broken line of fast-moving storms possible.  It will be a rather windy day with winds from the southwest to west-southwest at 15-32 mph. 

Highs of 85-90 are likely with heat indices peaking at 87-93.

We looked very capped above 6500' & any shower/storms looks brief, so I kept the POPs at 30%.  It will not be overly unstable, but if a cell can really get going, then an isolated severe gust could occur. 

The line & passage of the cold front should feature some overall gustiness anyway as winds turn from west-southwest to northwest.  General gusts of up to 40 mph are possible with the line/front anyway.

Friday looks breezy & mostly sunny to sunny with highs 76-81 after morning lows 53-59.

Saturday looks windy with southwest winds 15-30 mph & mostly sunny skies.  Highs of 84-88 (heat indices 85-90) are likely after morning lows of 51-56.

Sunday looks windy with south-southwest winds 20-40 mph with highs 88-92 with heat indices 92-98.

A line of storms is possible in the late afternoon-evening with SLIGHT RISK parameters showing up for severe wind gusts.

ENHANCED RISK parameters show up in eastern Iowa to northern & central Illinois.  We will monitor.  These parameters may shift east & southeastward.

Similar severe weather parameters show up late Monday, as well with ENHANCED parameters here or near here.

We will monitor, changes are still possible to this Sunday-Monday forecast, but just be aware of hotter, muggy weather & the upcoming risk of severe weather in our region.

A scattering of some showers/t'showers are possible Tuesday with windy conditions from the northwest & highs 76-81. 

With mostly cloudy skies, a few isolated showers are possible Wednesday with windy conditions from the northwest & highs only 68-75.

Highs 67-74 & lows in the 40s are likely at the end of next week.

So, mid-September is cooler than normal with frost & freezing in the Northern Plains to northern Minnesota.

Record lows are possible in that zone as the two typhoons in merging with upper trough over Siberia & western Alaska mean deep, deep trough there & thus the big, hot Far West upper ridge.  This translates to deep trough in the central & parts of the Eastern U.S.

Such a scenario has not been seen since mid-May.

The Far West will be torrid with extreme wildfire danger while October-like weather dominates farther eastward.

Latter September look warmer than normal, however.

Early- to mid-October is trending warmer than normal.

Late October looks cooler than normal.

Overall rainfall in October looks a bit below normal, though late October looks wetter than the first half (September shows a trend of normal rainfall, based on the latest data).

November-December looks warmer & wetter than normal here with steady to worsening drought southwest, southeast, east & northeast of here & unusually cold weather with heavy snow & rain in the Pacific Northwest & heavy, heavy snows in the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains & even northern Minnesota.

West Lafayette
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Williamsport
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Chilly and cloudy Tuesday
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