September 2, 10:50 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some severe weather risk Tuesday evening & the latest update on Dorian.

Posted: Sep 2, 2019 10:21 PM
Updated: Sep 2, 2019 11:39 PM

July was warmer & drier than normal at WLFI ob site.

Average peak dew point each day overall was 70.8 degrees.

August was near normal temperature-wise, but still drier than normal.

Average maximum dew point daily was 66.7 degrees, so August was not as humid or oppressive as July, overall.

Watch our trough shift the track of Hurricane Dorian from west to northwest to north to northeast. 

That trough (& a strong cold front) has brought a lot of severe weather from Saskatchewan to North Dakota & Minnesota today-tonight.

The remnants of the outbreak of severe weather in progress right now over Minnesota (gusts measured up to 87 mph so far) will pass as increasing cloudiness in the morning hours before those clouds decrease in the afternoon.

Winds will run 15-30 mph from the southwest for the day with highs 84-89 with dew points rising to 68-72, making it fell muggy.

Heat indices may peak at 89-94.

6-11 p.m. time frame, one or two broken lines of storms are likely.

Embedded severe storms are likely with wind as the main threat, through an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, nor isolated large hail.

The line(s) should feature fast-moving multi-cells, supercells & a small bow or two.  This seems very reasonable given the strong wind fields with potent speed to directional shear in unstable environment of 2500-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE.

SLIGHT RISK is up.  Looking at the latest model soundings, I feel like there is a pretty high probably for a corridor of ENHANCED RISK from Michigan to northeast Illinois to Newton, Jasper, Pulaski to part of Benton counties.

Clouds/sun mix Wednesday (cumulus/stratocumulus) may feature a couple isolated showers with north-northwest to north winds 10-20 mph & highs 71-76.

Clearing & diminishing winds may allow for temperatures to drop to the 40s to 50 Wednesday night.

Thursday still looks good with sun & cumulus clouds with highs 71-76 (winds north at 5-10 mph), followed by 50 to the 50s Thursday night winds turning to northeast at 5 mph).

Winds will actually turn to the southwest at 5-15 mph Friday ahead of an approaching surface cold front & shortwave.

A few isolated t'showers are possible in the p.m. with highs 76-81.

The weekend should feature clouds/sun (building cumulus daily) with highs 68-74 with lows 45-51 & north winds 5-15 mph.

It should heat up with time as we move into mid-September & it should turn wetter & stormy at times.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 72°
Kokomo
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 72°
Rensselaer
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 68°
Fowler
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 68°
Williamsport
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 72°
Crawfordsville
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 68°
Frankfort
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 73°
Delphi
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 72°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 70°
Nice, very warm to hot weather to continue.
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