September 18, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

The new data is in & here is the latest!

Posted: Sep 18, 2019 9:21 PM
Updated: Sep 18, 2019 11:29 PM

Highs today ran 81-87 with manageable humidity after higher humidity yesterday & Monday.  Dew points varied from 59 in the far north to 67 in the southwest this afternoon.

The hottest, most humid air overall has been in the southwest half the past three days.  Southwest hit 85 yesterday & 89 Monday, while the far north has been near 80.  The heat index at Covington Monday reached 97.

Normal highs for this time of year are 74-78 over the viewing area.

A few isolated t'showers are possible Friday PM with partly cloudy skies, highs in the 80s with dew points in the humid to muggy upper 60s to lower 70s.

After a mostly dry Saturday with mostly sunny skies early, skies should become partly cloudy with a few scattered t'showers in the west in the PM.

Remnants of tropical storm Imelda, Pacific tropical remnants & overall deep tropical moisture from the Gulf, Caribbean & Pacific will feed band of heavy rainfall with some storms that will push through our area Sunday-Sunday night with a few lingering showers Monday morning.

It appears that 1-2" of rainfall is possible with much of that falling Sunday late afternoon to evening with highs in the 70s.

It still looks like an anafrontal situation with line of showers & storms on the front of much of the rainfall falling behind the front.

Given the tropical feed, after drying Monday, periodic rainfall may return Tuesday-Tuesday night to Wednesday.  Highs should run in the 70s.

The core of the remnants of a significant Pacific hurricane should race northward through area a week from this weekend with rainfall.

Another storm system in the Plains may bring another wave of some rainfall following this one with tropical connection to the Pacific & Gulf.

So, the tropics will be a big influence on our weather for the next 1.5 weeks.

It appears temperatures will average in the 70s with rainfall.

With these suddenly very active tropics in the Atlantic, Gulf & Pacific, rainfall should average above normal in the area now through late September.

Eventually, tropical moisture will be gutted by strong cold front, allowing cool, dry Canadian airmass to blast in & cover a huge area of the Lower 48.

Very end of September to early October still looks cooler than normal with 30s & 40s mornings & frost & freezing in the Plains.

Even through early October, the tropics look ACTIVE.  Potential is there for a landfalling tropical system on the Gulf Coast & very deep tropical moisture/tropical systems in Mexico to Texas, Arizona, even Utah as well as the Southeast U.S. to Mid-Atlantic.

That deep moisture may be transported into the Corn Belt.

Here, I went with normal rainfall, depending on where exactly the tropical systems & deepest moisture tracks.

Thoughts are that the cooler than normal weather may linger in early October.

There is a trend to warmer than normal weather in mid-October with below normal rainfall.  So once we squeeze the tropics of all of the moisture & dump the rainfall, a dry pattern will ensue.

Temperature anomalies:

Rainfall anomalies:

A cold snap will likely occur briefly late October with frost & freezing, but Halloween to early November looks wet & stormy & warmer than normal.

Count on a later than normal peak in Fall color in the area this year.  In fact, it may be 1-1.5 weeks late (more like end of October to early November), especially in central & southern parts of the area.

November looks quite warm until mid-month, then big cold snap will drag that mean temperature downward later in the month with first flakes of less than 1" snow before Thanksgiving.  Should stay colder than normal to the end of November, then turn warmer than normal in December.

Overall November looks wetter than normal.

Article Comments

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Much warmer weather ahead.
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