SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

September 17, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the now to winter forecast overall outlook based on the latest data available...

Posted: Sep 17, 2021 12:39 PM
Updated: Sep 17, 2021 4:37 PM

Lows this morning ran 59-65, while preliminary highs today reached (as of 4:40 p.m.) 87-92. 

The weekend looks very warm to hot with the humid weather confined to Sunday.

Highs Saturday will run 87-91 & Sunday, 88-93.  Heat indices on Sunday may reach 92-99.

Low Saturday morning will run 61-66 over the area with lows Sunday morning 59-66.

On Monday, with muggy weather as dew points climb to the 70s, highs will run 82-87 with one round of scattered showers & storms in the morning to midday time frame.  Then, the sun will likely appear & new scattered showers & storms bubble up & pass through mid to late afternoon before drying out in the evening to part of the overnight.

Winds will be south-southeast at 15-30 mph.

Rainfall coverage will average around 50%.

More scattered showers & storms are likely Tuesday as strong surface cold front approaches & passes. 

The best coverage of rainfall looks to run midday to early afternoon with highs 79-85 with muggy conditions & southwest winds 20-35 mph.

Given the strengthening wind fields & tongue of unstable air ahead of the front, an isolated severe storm or two is possible.  MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 of 5) for severe could evolve.

With rainfall coverage to 60%, much of the viewing area will see some welcome rainfall Monday-Tuesday.  Some of you will be disappointed by less than 0.25" amounts, but many of you will see +0.70".

Much cooler weather arrives late next week.

The normal first 45 of the Fall is September 15-22 for the viewing area.

For the southern half of the area, it will be about right on cue, but the north will have the first 45 about a week later than normal.

The normal first 40 is September 26-October 2 time frame.  That could get into our northern counties around October 4.  In the south, it may be October 8 or 14.  All first occurrences of 40 look later than normal by 1-3 weeks.

High/Morning Low...Date, Day, Conditions

89/65...Sept. 18, Sat.  Partly Cloudy, NE Wind 8-13 mph...Records:  93-1891

91/65...Sept. 19, Sun.  Partly Cloudy, SE to SSE Wind 10-15 mph, More Humid, Heat Index 98...Records:  94-1891

86/73...Sept. 20, Mon.  Two Main Rounds of Sct'd Showers & Storms (50%), Muggy, SSE Wind 15-30 mph...Records:  95-1940

83/72...Sept. 21, Tue.  Showers & Storms Late Morning to Early Afternoon, Then Tapering (60%), SW to NW Wind 15-35 mph.

71/53...Sept. 22, Wed.  Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a Couple Isolated Showers (20%), N Wind 15-25 mph

72/46...Sept. 23, Thu.  Mostly Sunny, NNE Wind 10 mph.

77/45...Sept. 24, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E to SSE to S Wind 10-15 mph.

83/54...Sept. 25, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-30 mph...Records: 94-1891

88/61...Sept. 26, Sun. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Records: 96-1891

82/66...Sept. 27, Mon. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms, SW Wind 15-25 mph to NE Wind 10-20 mph.

72/53...Sept. 28, Tue. Sunny, E Wind 2-5 mph.

76/45...Sept. 29, Wed. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10-15 mph.

83/52...Sept 30, Thu. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph.

85/60...Oct. 1, Fri. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph...Records: 92-1897

84/63...Oct. 2, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, Some Sct'd Showers/Storms Possible, SSW 10-20 mph...Records: 92-1983

71/52...Oct. 3, Sun.  Becoming Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 10-25 mph.

70/44...Oct. 4, Mon. Partly Cloudy, W Wind 10-15 mph.

71/42...Oct. 5, Tue. Partly Cloudy, WNW 10 mph.

72/44...Oct. 6, Wed. Mostly Sunny, W 10 mph.

71/44...Oct. 7, Thu. Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 5-10 mph.

72/42...Oct. 8, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E Wind 5 mph

78/52...Oct. 9, Sat. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10 mph

83/60...Oct. 10, Sun. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 15-30 mph...Records: 88-1938

85/65...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-40 mph......Records: 86-2010

83/64...Oct. 12, Tue. Mostly Cloudy, Sct'd Showers/Storms, SW Wind 20-30 mph...Records: 87-1930

60/52...Oct. 13, Wed. Mostly Cloudy with a Few Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, Northwest Winds 15-25 mph.

61/35...Oct. 14, Thu. Mostly Sunny, N Wind 5-10 mph.

66/35...Oct. 15, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SE Wind 5 mph.

74/48...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.

80/60...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers & Storms Late, SW 20-35 mph.

52/40...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-35 mph.

56/30...Oct. 19, Tue. Mostly Sunny, NW 5-10 mph.

60/30...Oct. 20, Wed. Sunny, NE 5-10 mph.

65/34...Oct. 21, Thu.  Sunny, S 5-15 mph

72/49...Oct. 22, Fri.  Mostly Sunny, SW 20-35 mph

After some of that rainfall Monday-Tuesday, pattern is quite dry for the rest of September.

Drier than normal trend continues through October & November.

Brush & field fire risk will go up substantially in October to November.

After an overall warmer & drier than normal October-November, it still appears winter will hit suddenly & pretty hard in December.I am still going for below normal temperatures & above normal precipitation with above normal snowfall.

This year, we have a better shot at a White Christmas.

We should then turn suddenly mild around New Year's Eve & the warmer, wetter weather should continue into early January.

Thoughts are that winter returns in late January with colder weather & snow, but the very end of December through early January may have little to no snow at all (after a snowy December).

Late January through the first entire half of February looks colder & snowier than normal, but then late February should turn nice & mild & thaw again.

March still favors above normal temperatures & precipitation with below normal snowfall.

West Lafayette
Mostly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 46°
Kokomo
Cloudy
47° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 42°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 46°
Fowler
Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 46°
Williamsport
Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 43°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 42°
Frankfort
Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 42°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 45°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 45°
Logansport
Mostly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: °
Windy & Drying Out, But River & Creek Flooding...
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Cases: 1007681

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CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1355212121
Lake664101166
Allen57993801
Hamilton46350465
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Elkhart35949510
Vanderburgh32251480
Tippecanoe27933260
Johnson25107445
Hendricks23897359
Porter22929365
Madison18748409
Clark18557252
Vigo17479303
Monroe15263200
LaPorte15173250
Delaware15073263
Howard14748290
Kosciusko12348148
Hancock11728176
Bartholomew11639180
Warrick11292189
Floyd11108215
Wayne10986253
Grant10082220
Morgan9472176
Boone8926115
Dubois8271131
Henry8229152
Dearborn822393
Noble8031106
Marshall7939135
Cass7546121
Lawrence7457171
Shelby7189119
Jackson698289
Gibson6597115
Harrison649192
Knox6421106
Huntington6395100
DeKalb632399
Montgomery6264111
Miami593398
Putnam581278
Clinton576171
Whitley565755
Steuben562576
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Jasper532079
Jefferson511297
Ripley500586
Adams482576
Daviess4677114
Scott438974
Greene425196
Wells424888
Clay423360
White418764
Decatur4169102
Fayette406587
Jennings387361
Posey376644
Washington359151
LaGrange359078
Randolph3452100
Spencer340243
Fountain335760
Sullivan329452
Starke317171
Owen314771
Fulton312667
Orange293664
Jay284645
Franklin265643
Perry265452
Rush262432
Carroll261934
Vermillion258654
Parke231426
Pike229243
Tipton228159
Blackford193142
Pulaski183757
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Newton158348
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Brown146747
Martin138719
Switzerland135011
Warren121116
Union107016
Ohio84613
Unassigned0540

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