September 17, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update On the Tropics, Two Strong Cold Fronts & the Effects On Us

It has been a very warm September. Other than with Gordon, temperatures have been largely above normal since early August with four main rounds of heat since then. Changes are ahead.

Posted: Sep 17, 2018 8:58 PM
Updated: Sep 17, 2018 9:49 PM

If not for Gordon, we'd have quite a stretch of above normal mean temperatures (high + low/2).  That was the big change-maker this month in a pattern dominated by hot upper ridging.  Some locations have had 7 days in the 90s in September.  At the Purdue Airport, there have been 5. 

I am projecting above normal temperatures right up to Friday & then one above normal day next week with highs well into the 80s as a warm front briefly migrates northward.  Otherwise, the majority of the days look a bit below to below normal.

It was another hot one today!  After highs yesterday at 86-91, highs today ran 88-94.  However, after high humidity the early half of the day, the humidity dropped in the afternoon.  It is back up this evening & downright muggy outside!

The sinking air on the back side of Florence contributed to the heat & the drop in humidity this afternoon after a wave of high humidity was pulled in from the east via Florence yesterday.

Few isolated showers approaching our northwestern counties will continue to migrate southeastward.  They should diminish/exit over the next few hours. 

With a few lingering clouds overnight to tomorrow morning, some patchy shallow fog will develop with lows in the mid 60s.

With upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow & partly cloudy skies, a few isolated showers & storms are possible as weak cold front passes.  Heat indices will run 91-96.

Southwest to west winds will turn to the northwest by evening at 5-10 mph.

As the front migrates back northward Wednesday as a warm front after getting as far south as I-74.  A couple isolated showers & storms are possible in our northwestern areas.

Highs will run  in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices at 91-97.  Northeast/east winds early Wednesday will turn to the southeast & then south with time at 5-10 mph.

There will be multiple rounds of severe weather & flooding rainfall from the Dakotas & Nebraska to Minnesota, Iowa & western/southwestern Wisconsin through Wednesday night.

Thursday looks mostly sunny hot & windy with highs 89-94 & heat indices 93-97.  Southwest winds will peak with sustained winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 32 mph at times in the afternoon. 

Note the sustained winds +15 mph in our area projected below with the 20-35 mph SUSTAINED winds in the Plains.

You can also see the area with the severe weather risk Thursday afternoon-evening.  This is a severe weather risk parameter highlightning where conditions are favorable should storms develop.  Risk will be northwest of us.

Showers/storms are likely Friday.  Severe risk is pretty low as the dynamics/shear bypass our area over Michigan to Ontario & New England.  Only an isolated random severe storm may occur, it appears at the moment.

Rainfall may return at times for the weekend & then again Tuesday after a dry Monday.  This is all courtesy of a front in the area & the remnants of a Texas tropical low & potentially "Rosa" in the Pacific.

After rain/storms late next week after a warm, humid, windy Wednesday, MUCH cooler weather will arrive with the coolest temperatures since April.

Lows in the 30s & 40s are possible with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

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