September 17, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Nice Fall cool-down, then a big warm-up with overall warmer & drier than normal pattern for a long while.

Posted: Sep 17, 2020 1:00 PM
Updated: Sep 17, 2020 9:16 PM

Highs today reached 70-77 after much of the area dropped to 55-60 this morning.  Outliers were Crawfordsville & New Market at 50 & Remington, Morocco & Kentland at 61-62.

The next 5-6 nights should see lows in the 40s.  A few upper 30s are possible in our far northeastern areas over the weekend.  Patchy fog is possible nearly every night.

Most days skies will be mostly sunny, with smoky haze at times.

Highs will run in the 60s & 70s before we warm to the 80s next week.

This is a dry pattern.  It may take until the very end of the month to get rainfall in here & that may come from the remnants of a tropical system in Mexico & Texas, combined with a cold front.

Overall, the trend through October is warmer & drier.  A warmer than normal pattern should roll on with below normal rainfall.

Overall, November looks warmer than normal, as does December.

November looks drier than normal UNTIL late month with then rains really pick up.  December looks wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.

So, that said............

Greater Lafayette Trends with Longer-Range Modeling & Analog Combo:

Today, September 17:  73/46  Clouds Clearing, But Thick Smoke, Breezy 

Friday, September 18:  70/43  Patchy Fog, Then Mostly Sunny, Haze, Breezy

Saturday, September 19:  70/43  Patchy Fog, Then Mostly Sunny, Haze

Sunday, September 20:  74/44  Patchy Fog, Then Mostly Sunny, Haze

Monday, September 21:  80/47  Patchy Fog, Then Mostly Sunny, Haze

Tuesday, September 22:  82/52  Mostly Sunny

Wednesday, September 23:  86/57  Mostly Sunny

Thursday, September 24:  88/60  Mostly Sunny

Friday, September 25:  90/63  Mostly Sunny

Saturday, September 26:  90/68  Mostly Sunny, Breezy

Sunday, September 27:  89/71  Partly Cloudy, Windy

Monday,  September 28:  81/58  Scattered Showers & Storms, Windy

Tuesday, September 29:  74/49  Partly Cloudy, Breezy

Wednesday,  September 30:  73/43  Partly Cloudy, Breezy

Thursday,  October 1:  68/43  Partly Cloudy

Friday,  October 2:  74/46  Mostly Sunny

Saturday, October 3:  80/51  Mostly Sunny, Breezy

Sunday, October 4:  83/60  Partly Cloudy, Windy

Monday, October 5:  82/55  Scattered Showers & Storms, Windy

Tuesday, October 6:  67/43  Clearing, Breezy

Overall this continues to be the set-up for winter.............

Winter-Spring looks like this with temperature anomalies:  cold, rough, snowy northern tier of the Lower 48, warmer in the southeast half of the U.S.

An active storm track will bring us a wet winter & spring with elevated risk of some river flooding & severe weather, especially in the spring.  Signals suggest that spring could be the most active severe weather-wise since the early 2010s.

There is much higher risk of drought in California, Texas & over the Deep South to Mid-Atlantic.

There is a much higher risk of avalanches in the Cascades & Northern Rockies due to such heavy, heavy snowfall this winter in that area.

Flood risk is high in the fire-scarred areas of Oregon & Washington to far northern California in the area of above-normal rainfall.

Even late spring to early summer 2021, this pattern doesn't change much, per sey.

The core of the chill may work a bit eastward out of the Pacific Northwest.  The below normal temperatures will be confined to the Northern Rockies & High Plains to Northern Plains.

We still look warmer than normal overall.

We are active with above normal rainfall with our area being in an active storm track.

I am in the process of deeply analyzing the processes & patterns that may emerge next summer, but this is going to take time.  I hope to provide insight in coming blog posts.

West Lafayette
Overcast
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Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
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Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Rensselaer
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Hi: 41° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 41°
Fowler
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Hi: 41° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 41°
Williamsport
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Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 38°
Crawfordsville
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Hi: 46° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 39°
Frankfort
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Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 42°
Delphi
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Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Monticello
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Hi: 45° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Logansport
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Hi: 44° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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