SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

September 16, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Heating back up again, but rainfall coverage increasing for early next week...40s still ahead for late next week in the mornings.

Posted: Sep 15, 2021 11:28 PM
Updated: Sep 16, 2021 4:45 PM

Highs Wednesday reached 78-83 with low humidity of dew points dropping to the 40s & lower 50s.

Winds were nice out of the northeast north & to north-northeast at 10-20 mph.

Lows this morning dropped to 48-55.

Highs today reached 82-86.

Very warm to hot weather will occur Friday-Sunday.  Only Sunday looks humid.  The other days....not so much.

Highs will trend 87-93.  Winds will turn from the southwest Friday to the northeast Saturday & then east to southeast Saturday night-Sunday.

This will occur as combination of the old "Nicholas" circulation merges with an upper low & that upper low will begin to move northeastward.

The higher humidity Sunday will arrive from the southeast around the low's circulation. 

Heat indices Sunday should reach 91-99.

It is looking better for rainfall coverage early next week & more moisture looks available as upper low & cold front pass.

50% coverage of showers & storms are expected Monday with muggy conditions & highs 85-90, followed by 82-88 Tuesday with muggy weather (dew points both days in the 70-75 range) & 50% coverage of showers & storms.

Stronger wind fields aloft will arrive Tuesday afternoon-evening as cold front approaches, so MARGINAL RISK for severe weather still seems reasonable.

Winds will be out of the south Monday 10-15 mph & southwest Tuesday at 15-30 mph.

Much cooler weather will arrive Wednesday-Thursday with very low humidity.

Lows in the 40s are expected Wednesday & Thursday nights (43-48).

However, it will warm up very quickly after that.

80s to 90 are expected by next weekend & record heat is expected Iowa to Kansas & northwestern Missouri.

After some of that rainfall Monday-Tuesday, pattern is quite dry for the rest of September.

Drier than normal trend continues through October & November.

Brush & field fire risk will go up substantially in October to November.

After a warmer & drier than normal October-November, it still appears winter will hit suddenly & pretty hard in December.

I am still going for below normal temperatures & above normal precipitation with above normal snowfall.

This year, we have a better shot at a White Christmas.

We should then turn suddenly mild around New Year's Eve & the warmer, wetter weather should continue into early January.

Thoughts are that winter returns in late January with colder weather & snow, but the very end of December through early January may have little to no snow at all (after a snowy December).

Late January through the first entire half of February looks colder & snowier than normal, but then late February should turn nice & mild & thaw again.

March still favors above normal temperatures & precipitation with below normal snowfall.

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Windy & Drying Out, But River & Creek Flooding...
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