September 16, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Fall-like weather ahead with smoky skies, then a warm-up back to summer.

Posted: Sep 16, 2020 4:14 PM
Updated: Sep 16, 2020 4:56 PM

Looks like the coolest weather since mid-May with 5 consecutive nights in the 40s.  A few upper 30s are even possible in our far northeastern areas Friday night-early Saturday morning!

Patchy fog is possible Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday mornings.

We heat up again next week, but other than a couple isolated showers early Thursday morning with cold frontal passage, we look dry for a long time.  Rainfall is now even looking less likely on September 24.  It may very well take until the very end of September to early October to see much in the way of rainfall.

So, this is a dry, pleasant pattern, but it will heat up again & the smoke will thin with time.

It looks like it may peak in thickness with the front tomorrow morning & perhaps another round of extra thickness tomorrow or Saturday. 

The overall trend is warmth & dryness (as compared to normal) through October.

Temperatures anomalies:

Precipitation anomalies:

November is also continuing to trend warmer than normal with dry pattern until latter month.

The winter overall still looks rough with lots of cold & snow in the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies & Northern Plains to Northwestern Great Lakes.  Certainly looks colder & snowier than normal there.

Meanwhile, the southeastern half of the U.S. (including our area) still looks warmer than normal.

Look like the active storm track from Oregon & Washington to Colorado & then from Missouri to Ontario.

We look very wet & active with frequent storm systems.  We have a higher than normal potential of river flooding this winter.

Nothing screams brutal cold or "Polar Vortex" cold.  We need a winter without such brutal cold waves.  The peaches have been wiped out not only in the 2019-20 winter, but 2018-19 winter & the 2017-18 winter & the 2013-14 winter since 2010 (with temperatures down to at least -20). 

Snowfall looks below normal.

The Southern Plains & Southeast look dry & droughty.

Similar pattern looks to continue into Spring 2021 with cold weather & late snows in the Northern Plains & Northwestern Great Lakes through the Northern Rockies to Pacific Northwest, while the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley, Eastern Corn Belt, Southeast & Northeast look warmer than normal.

March-April-May 2021 look quite a bit wetter than normal here with potentially the most active severe weather spring we have seen since the early 2010s.

However, at this time, the wettest months are trending to be March & April with much-elevated river flooding risk.

We need no unusual freezes in spring.  The historic mid-May freeze of 2020 wiped out much of the fruit in the viewing area with losses anywhere from 40-100% with apples, pears, cherries, plums, blueberries, blackberries, raspberries & grapes.

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Remaining Dry and Trending Warmer for the Upcoming Work Week.
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