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September 14, 1:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

A hidden benefit of the heat: getting the late-planted corn & soybean crop to maturity........Here is the latest outlook for the next +1 month.

Posted: Sep 13, 2019 9:57 PM
Updated: Sep 14, 2019 2:03 AM

Highs Friday ran 81-88 with a few weakening spotty showers/storms in the morning, then a few new storms on our far eastern fringe midday-early afternoon.

Humidity dropped northwest to & west to southeast & east this afternoon & evening on west winds of 15-30 mph.

After 50s this morning, highs today will run 79-85 with lots of sunshine & low humidity.

Clouds will increase tonight, followed by a period of some scattered showers/storms Sunday morning, then cloudy to mostly cloudy skies going partly cloudy.

Winds will turn to the south to south-southwest at 20-30 mph with highs 82-87. 

With high humidity coming in, heat indices will rise to 86-94.

Front stalling in the vicinity may keep a few isolated to spotty storms popping at times Tuesday night-Friday.

Highs will run in the humid 80s to around 90 with lows in the 60s.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Humberto will impact the Bahamas & parts of Florida to southeast Georgia & South Carolina, then (as it strengthens) drift out to sea.

It does not look to drift inland at this point.  Models & the National Hurricane Center's official forecast indicate this.

Hidden benefit of this summer heat well into September is the accumulation of heat units to get this late-planted corn & soybean crop to maturity.  These exceptionally warm nights recently at 70-72 have been especially helpful. 

The more warmth, the better, right to October!

Temperature anomalies next week:

Strong cold front with periodic showers/storms should impact the area next Saturday evening-night through Sunday.

It looks like a potential SPC SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK scenario from South Dakota to northern Kansas Friday of next week.

Even Saturday, looks like some potential SPC SLIGHT Wisconsin & Minnesota to Iowa, Illinois & Missouri.

As the best mid & upper flow becomes displaced from the better instability in our area, severe risk looks to diminish.

Front may become quite anafrontal with time (some storms on the front of it, then rainfall & a few storms behind the front in the cooler air as some unstable air is thrust up & over, then behind the front [elevated instability]).

An isolated severe storm or two is possible with the frontal passage, but nothing looks substantial severe or widespread severe at this point.

It should then be a stair-step to a period of fall weather with trend of below normal temperatures late September to early October.

Again, it will not be immediate chill, but successions of cooler weather with us eventually bottoming out with lows in the 30s & 40s.

I still cannot rule out a landfalling tropical system on the Gulf Coast in very late September to early October. 

Although that period looks drier than normal here, if a tropical system moves through the area, that could change suddenly. 

Also, if a Pacific hurricane or two makes it to Baja California & then the remnants make it to Arizona, New Mexico & Colorado then that deep tropical moisture could be transport to our area, making for wetter times.

I do see evidence of a very warm period in October with above to well-above normal temperatues mid-month, followed by cooler late month with frost & freezing.

Another period of substantial warmth (but also wetness & storminess arriving) is expected in early November.

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Much warmer weather ahead.
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