September 13, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update Regarding Florence, Possibly Kirk, Rosa or Sergio & a Couple of Strong Cold Fronts

From Florence to possibly Kirk, the tropics are ACTIVE from the Indian to Pacific to Atlantic Oceans. For us, widespread rainfall will return at the end of next week, courtesy of the tropics & a strong cold front that will bring cooler weather to our viewing area.

Posted: Sep 13, 2018 1:46 PM
Updated: Sep 13, 2018 4:54 PM

Notice how Florence makes landfall & sits over South Carolina Friday-Sunday.

Even if it makes landfall as a 2 or 3, it will have a 4-type surge.  Catastrophic flooding is likely from that & the rain.  Hardest hit will be southeastern North Carolina & far northeastern South Carolina from the wind & surge, but the flood impacts will go well inland.

We look fine with just northeast winds, few/come clouds & warmer, more humid conditions arriving.

I am still not buying Florence remnants moving over Indiana.  I think this will be an Appalachians storm with significant flooding from the Carolinas to the Virginias to Pennsylvania, Maryland & Delaware.

NHC is going that route.

I few isolated showers & t'showers are possible Monday-Wednesday of next week, but more widespread rainfall will likely occur at the end of next week.

There is a landfall of a tropical depression or tropical storm (potentially "Kirk") in southern Texas this weekend. 

A strong cold front will pull that deep moisture & those remnants rapidly northward with widespread rainfall possible.

Note the circulation (circle of lines) in west Texas & the movement northeastward along the front, along with the rainfall.

That is the first cold front, which will bring a nice, crisp, cool, October feel to the air.  A secondary cold front behind that will bring another taste of October to the area.  So, late September looks quite COOL!

Take notice of how a Pacific hurricane's moisture is pulled up into that second cold front.  This would be "Rosa" or "Sergio".

This means both cold fronts may bring widespread soaking rainfall to our area. 

So, farmers, we may have two 1" rains over the area over a week period late month, along with brisk winds.  This may lead to lodging of corn stalks (dependent upon the hybrid).  I know multiple growers, especially in the southern part of Indiana, that saw quite of corn downed from Gordon.

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