Highs yesterday reached 84-88, followed by near record warm lows early this morning of 68-73.
After upper 80s to low 90s today with higher humidity leading to lower to upper 90s heat indices (with continued strong southwest winds & hazy sunshine).
Winds will tend to diminish tonight, so I went for lows a hair cooler at 65-68.
Monday looks windy with hazy sun & around 90 to the mid 90s with heat indices lower 90s to near 100.
70s Monday night will give way to near 90 to the mid 90s Tuesday with strong southwest winds to 35 mph.
By Tuesday evening-night, a highly-broken line of storms (up to 40% coverage) will pass with MARGINAL RISK for severe weather (Level 1 of 5 or isolated severe weather possible) as a surface cold front approaches & passes through our area.
They should be fast-moving & not the best, most efficient rainfall producers.....AND owing to 40% coverage, this will not be the rainfall for widespread or decent dry spell or drought relief.
Potential is there for upgrade to SLIGHT RISK if wind fields continue to strengthen.
A few showers/storms are possible Wednesday morning-midday, then it looks dry, cooler & less humid with highs upper 70s to lower 80s.
After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, a couple isolated showers/storm are possible Thursday as front moves back northward as a warm front with highs near 80 to the upper 80s.
Friday-Sunday of next weekend looks hot & humid with highs near 90 to the mid 90s (near record warmth) with heat indices lower 90s to 100. Winds look strong from the southwest with overnight lows only in the 71-76 range (near/record warm overnight levels).
Tropical Storm Nicholas should make landfall in either far northeast Mexico or south Texas early to mid-week.
There is a continued trend for this system to track over the Southeast U.S. & not impact us as the heart of our hot upper ridging shifts a bit to the northeast.
Hundreds & hundreds of heat records will fall in late September from the Plains to Midwest, Great Lakes, New England & across southeastern Canada.
Monday highs near 90 to the mid 90s are expected with heat indices lower 90s to lower 100s with strong southwest wind to 30 mph.
Line of storms is possible on the evening of Tuesday, September 21 after highs in the near 90 to lower 90s range with heat indices 90s to lower 100s.
After a strong southwest wind to 40 mph that day, wind should go to the northwest that night & temperatures quickly drop into the 50s.
Parameters suggest SLIGHT RISK for severe weather here from this front (Level 2 of 5 or scattered severe storms possible).
Lows in the 40s are likely on the mornings of September 23 & 24.
We will then heat rapidly up to mid 80s to lower 90s, followed by a cool-down again to brief spurt of lows in the 40s.
Brief shot of cool weather will follow before temperatures go well above normal in early October.
High/Morning Low...Date, Conditions
SEPTEMBER 17-OCTOBER 4:
91/66....Sept. 17, Fri. Pt. Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, NOT Humid, (Dew Points 55-61), S Wind 5-15 mph....Records: 93-1891
94/68....Sept. 18, Sat. Mostly Sunny, Humid (Dew Points 65-70), Heat Index to 100, SW Wind 15-30 mph.....Records: 93-1891
94/73...Sept. 19, Sun. Mostly Sunny, Humid, Heat Index to 100, SW Wind 20-30 mph...Records: 94-1891
94/76...Sept. 20, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SSW Wind 15-30 mph, Heat Index to 102, Isolated Shower/Storm (20%)...Records: 95-1940
88/75...Sept. 21, Tue. Some Sct'd Showers/Storms with SLIGHT RISK Parameters for Severe...Records: 95-1940
71/55...Sept. 22, Wed. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 15-25 mph.
72/43...Sept. 23, Thu. Partly Cloudy, NNE Wind 10-15 mph.
79/45...Sept. 24, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E to SSE to S Wind 10-15 mph.
84/60...Sept. 25, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-30 mph...Records: 94-1891
88/66...Sept. 26, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Records: 96-1891
72/57...Sept. 27, Mon. Partly Cloudy, NE Wind 5-10 mph.
71/45...Sept. 28, Tue. Sunny, E Wind 2-5 mph.
77/46...Sept. 29, Wed. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10-15 mph.
82/54...Sept 30, Thu. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.
83/60...Oct. 1, Fri. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph...Records: 92-1897
86/65...Oct. 2, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph...Records: 92-1983
82/66...Oct. 3, Sun. Mostly Cloudy, Some Sct'd Showers/Storms Possible, SSW 10-20 mph.
74/57...Oct. 4, Mon. Becoming Partly Cloudy, W Wind 10-15 mph.
73/52...Oct. 5, Tue. Partly Cloudy, WNW 10 mph.
72/45...Oct. 6, Wed. Mostly Sunny, W 10 mph.
71/45...Oct. 7, Thu. Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 5-10 mph.
72/42...Oct. 8, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E Wind 5 mph
77/45...Oct. 9, Sat. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10 mph
83/52...Oct. 10, Sun. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 15-30 mph...Records: 88-1938
85/63...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-40 mph......Records: 86-2010
83/64...Oct. 12, Tue. Mostly Cloudy, Sct'd Showers/Storms, SW Wind 20-30 mph...Records: 87-1930
64/53...Oct. 13, Wed. Mostly Cloudy with a Few Showers, Then Partly Cloudy, Northwest Winds 15-25 mph.
62/37...Oct. 14, Thu. Mostly Sunny, N Wind 5-10 mph.
68/35...Oct. 15, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SE Wind 5 mph.
76/50...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.
80/61...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers & Storms Late, SW 20-35 mph.
58/43...Oct. 18, Mon. Partly Cloudy, NW 20-35 mph.
59/32...Oct. 19, Tue. Sunny, NW 5-10 mph.
62/32...Oct. 20, Wed. Sunny, NE 5-10 mph.