September 12, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

From some storms to continued summer heat & humidity to big cool-down.

Posted: Sep 12, 2019 1:18 PM
Updated: Sep 12, 2019 2:41 PM

Some scattered storms are possible along outflow boundary this afternoon-evening in area.

A couple/few isolated severe storms are possible.

SPC has MARGINAL RISK for severe weather up for the viewing area.

Line of severe storms in Illinois will weaken as it moves eastward, coming through as just some scattered showers/few storms late Thursday night-Friday morning.

Some new storms should fire on actual cold front midday to early afternoon & move eastward.

It appears these will form east of a Rochester to Frankfort to Greencastle line.

East of that line, risk of an isolated severe storm or two is there.

SPC has this MARGINAL RISK up.

Wind will go from south-southwest to west-southwest & a dew point drop from 70-75 to 57-65 following passage of the front.

It will feel better outside for high school football Friday evening as temperatures fall into the 70s by 7:30 p.m. with west breeze & the lowering dew points (after highs of 83-88 with heat indices peaking at 87-96)

Tropical system should affect Florida to the Gulf Coast this weekend to early next week.

It will continue to move through the Southeast & Appalachians through next week.  It does not look to affect our area presently, but we will monitor.

Flooding will become a concern in the Southeast & Appalachian despite recent dryness & intense heat (concern due to slow, slow movement of the system & the orographic lifting of the rainfall over the mountain ridges, resulting in enhanced rainfall rates).

For us, Saturday looks less humid with mostly sunny skies & highs of 82-86 with a light wind.  The sun will feel hot, despite the low humidity & it will still be quite warm with 80s (after 55-58 in the morning).

A couple isolated storms are possible Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday & Friday of next week with only 20% coverage.

Otherwise, it looks hot & humid with highs 87-93 with heat indices 93-101 Sunday-Friday with lows of 67-72.

Looks like potential line of storms along strong cold front Friday night of next week (though timing of the front/trough in any storms is a bit in question, so this pinpoint will be in flux as new data arrives in the coming days).

This front & the upper trough may finally push the Southeast/Appalachian tropical remnants northeastward to New England.

Meanwhile, a hurricane will likely be out in the western Atlantic.  It is unclear how close it will be to the U.S., but this upper trough & cold front will tend to push it away.

For us, some at least isolated severe weather could occur Friday evening-night, it appears.

It still looks like a succession of some cold front & upper troughs late month will re-enforce cooler air coming in.

Chilly pattern should dominate.

For example, these are the projected temperature anomalies for the afternoon of September 24.

Note the unusually cool weather in the central & southern U.S. & the unusual heat in the West with fire danger.

Fire danger may really go up late September to early October in southern California with Santa Ana episodes of strong offshore easterly to northeasterly winds & intense heat with low dew points.

Fires may also see a resurgence from British Columbia to the Intermountain West.

We should warm up above normal here in a surge of above normal temperatures for a time as we approach or get to mid-October.

Unless there are tropical remnants that affect our area, trend is for below normal rainfall in early October, normal rainfall mid-October.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Much warmer weather ahead.
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