Low clouds & fog this morning have lingered to midday with some breaks & holes in the stratus deck here & there.
The greatest amount of sun as of noon is over our far eastern counties.
Temperatures are 71-79 with humid to muggy dew points at 65-73.
This lack of sun overall is greatly limiting CAPE, as are the relatively warm mid-level temperatures.
However, strengthening shear profiles currently present over southeastern Missouri to far northern Arkansas should move northeastward through the afternoon as a bit of a mid-level jet streak pivots through the region. The streaks of cloudiness with bumpiness to them show up well with this feature near & southwest of St. Louis in the visible satellite image below
Also, mid & upper trough will approach, helping to cool the mid-levels a bit.
However, sun would be beneficial to get more CAPE for some storms.
All this said, MARGINAL RISK for severe weather continues for afternoon-evening to tonight, but this does seem to be a bit sun-dependent. MARGINAL means an isolated severe storm or two is possible.
The southeast Missouri, southern Illinois & then northern Arkansas corridor will be monitored, as that will be the area that would have storms develop to affect our area.
Sun & heating, however, will tend to be a main key for us to keep those storms potential enough for MARGINAL RISK even with strengthening overall shear.
The latest HRRR tends to fire much more storm action where the sun appears & keeps a narrow corridor of isolated severe risk where the sun is maximized south & southeast of our area.
We will monitor.
Sunday looks to be an improving day with increasing sunshine, lowering humidity & highs 75-83 with west-northwest winds.
Next week overall looks dry with highs mostly in the 80s & lows in the 50s with sunshine & low humidity.
Pale, smoky, hazy sky will be common as Far West wildfire smoke moves overhead with zonal upper flow moving west to east across the northern part of the U.S.