September 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Summer heat & humidity to big change late month with storms in-between.

Posted: Sep 11, 2019 1:16 PM
Updated: Sep 11, 2019 3:24 PM

A few spotty storms are around, moving eastward.

All of the Severe T'Storm Watches are north, northwest & northeast of the area.

Here, given the instability & some decent wind fields aloft, I cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with wind &/or hail.

Some spotty storms are possible Thursday with continued hot, humid, partly cloudy & rather breezy weather with warm, muggy nights.

These will occur as line of storms to the north collapses (though a few isolated storms with breezy gust front) may sneak into the far north tonight).

This gust front/outflow bounday will move southward through viewing area tomorrow morning with perhaps an isolated shower/storm.

This gust front/outflow bounday will move southward through viewing area tomorrow morning.

Boundary should then move back northward as a mini warm front midday-afternoon.

Although more diffuse, the boundary will be a trigger for some spotty storms.

Given some decent wind fields aloft, an isolated severe storm or two is possible.

Line of severe storms west of here should weaken as it moves eastward Thursday night.

It should pass as a broken line of some showers/storms late Thursday night-Friday morning.

Actual cold front may re-fire some new storms just east & southeast of us Friday afternoon.

If the front slows down, then we could be in on this new development, which may have some isolated severe risk.

Saturday looks good with partly cloudy skies, lower humidity & highs in the 78-83 range after a morning low of 55-60.

We heat up again Sunday & into next week while a tropical system may impact the Gulf Coast.  It is unclear how far north the effects will get, but they do look to stay south of our area as a cold front comes in & stalls.

This front will pop a few storms at times early to mid-next week here.

Statement on potential system from National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Stronger upper trough & cold front will push like a hurricane in the Atlantic offshore around September 20-22.

Some severe weather is possible with this front/trough here as much cooler weather pattern comes into the area in waves.

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