After lows of 59-67 this morning, we are 71-79 as of 3 p.m. with clearing developing after low overcast with early morning patchy fog.
With clearing today, tonight looks partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog late, an east wind becoming southeast at 10 mph & lows 59-67 (coolest north).
There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather Saturday afternoon through evening for all, but our western tier of counties.
Warm, humid airmass support decent CAPE, but relatively warm temperatures aloft dampen it a bit. However, increasing shear due to area of stronger wind aloft moving through do support some storm organization with isolated severe risk.
Threat would tend to be wind & hail.
A couple of broken lines & a few multi-cells are likely in the afternoon through evening with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy.
It will be a very warm & humid day with highs 80-87 with dew points in the 66-73 range, leading to heat indices of 84-93.
Winds will be from the southeast very early, then go quickly to the south, then southwest at 8-18 mph.
Any rainfall Sunday would be confined to the morning & isolated; being on the tail end of the weak front.
Skies should have a clearing trend in the afternoon.
At this point, next week still looks dry & warm with plenty of sunshine & highs in the 80 to the 80s & lows largely in the 50s.
A weak cold front should pass Thursday or Friday, but I have cut out any mention of rainfall today, as warm temperatures aloft, lack of good convergence & lack of low-level moisture preclude the POPs. Monitoring will continue, however.
This is a combo of every computer model available, but a strong reliance on analog data:
Saturday, September 12: Partly to Mostly Cloudy with PM Scattered Showers/Storms (35-45%)...86/65
Sunday, September 13: AM Isolated Showers, Then Clearing Trend & Less Humid...82/56
Monday, September 14: Mostly Sunny...80/53
Tuesday, September 15: Mostly Sunny...82/55
Wednesday, September 16: Mostly Sunny...86/61
Thursday, September 17: Mostly Sunny...84/55
Friday, September 18: Mostly Sunny...82/58
Saturday, September 19: Mostly Sunny...82/53
Sunday, September 20: Mostly Sunny...85/58
Monday, September 21: Partly Cloudy...90/65
Tuesday, September 22: Few Storms, Breezy...88/67
Wednesday, September 23: Mostly Sunny, Breezy...78/60
Thursday, September 24: Mostly Sunny...84/55
Friday, September 25: Mostly Sunny...90/64
Saturday, September 26: Partly Cloudy, Breezy...91/66 (Record warm night Northern Plains, Minnesota at 66-72 after early-monthy freeze)
Sunday, September 27: Few Storms Possible, Windy...88/65
Monday, September 28: Partly Cloudy, Breezy...75/58
Tuesday, September 29: Partly Cloudy...75/48
Wednesday, September 30: Mostly Sunny, Breezy...82/55
Thursday, October 1: Partly Cloudy, Breezy...86/62
Friday, October 2: Storms Possible, Windy...86/66
Saturday, October 3: Partly Cloudy, Windy...71/52
Sunday, October 4: Partly Cloudy...70/44
October 5: Mostly Sunny...75/50
October 6: Mostly Sunny...81/59
October 7: Partly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms, Windy...83/55
October 8: Partly Cloudy, Breezy...72/49
October 9: Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers, Breezy...75/49
October 10: Partly Cloudy, Breezy...67/46
October 11: Mostly Sunny...66/36 Patchy frost (32-38)
October 12: Mostly Sunny...68/38 Patchy frost (32-38)
October 13: Mostly Sunny...71/41