September 11, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some storms, more heat, & humidity & then the big change ahead. Here is a look from now to November.

Posted: Sep 11, 2019 9:51 PM
Updated: Sep 11, 2019 11:05 PM

Highs today reached as high as 91 with peak heat indices as high as 102.

There were a few spotty storms today.  One small cluster dumped up to 1.50" on the White-Carroll line.

Pocket of 40-50 mph winds & pea to penny hail showed up on radar with this cluster near Clymers to northeast of Deer Creek.

Line of storms will sink southward out of Wisconsin, Michigan & northern Illinois to Indiana overnight, then collapse with time.

However, gust front from the storms will surge southward.

There may be a few showers/storms that reach northern Newton, Jasper, northern Pulaski counties before all is collapsed.

As we heat up tomorrow to upper 80s to 90 with heat indices 95-101, scattered storms should fire on the outflow boundary & move northeastward (as the boundary is pushed back northeastward by the intense heat here & to our southwest).

Thus, I upped storm coverage to 40% for Thursday for the afternoon-evening.

An isolated severe storm or two is possible (wind, hail).

Leftovers of a squall line of severe storms to our west should pass late Thursday night-Friday morning as a few showers/storms possible.

Actual cold front should pass area near midday to early afternoon.

Given heating to the 80s with 70s dew points & heat indices in the 90s will give rise to a few to some storms to pop right on the cold front.  Timing for any storm would be midday to early afternoon.

A gradual decrease in the humidity will follow with winds turning south-southwest to west/west-southwest.  Dew points should drop from 70s around midday to 50s to 60 by late Friday evening.

An isolated severe storm or two is possible east of a Rochester to Lafayette to Covington line.

Saturday looks partly cloudy with lower humidity & near 84 for a high after near 58 in the morning.  77 & partly cloudy skies are likely for the Purdue vs. TCU match-up beginning at 7:30 p.m. at Ross-Ade.

A landfalling tropical system along the Gulf Coast should stay in the Southeast & Appalachians next week per latest data.

We will monitor.

Here, looks hot & humid with just a few isolated storms Tuesday-Wednesday after an isolated storm or two Sunday.

Highs will run 87-91 overall with heat indices 93-100.

Same pattern should continue until Friday of next week, though storm coverage may go up from 25% Thursday to 35% Friday.

Note the first mountain snows of the season in the Rockies late next week to the weekend of September 21-22!

After potentially 7 days in the 80s to 90 at Denver, lows may drop to 32 by Sunday morning, September 22 in parts of that area with highs in the 50s.

Here, looks like a line of storms Friday evening-night.  Some severe risk could occur.

A big change in the pattern will then take shape.

Unseasonably cool air wiht several distrubances bringing chilly rain showers in the upper trough over the Midwest & eastern U.S.

Snow showers may occur over North Dakota, Minnesota to northern Wisconsin as we end September & move into early October.

Cold air will be spilling southward, while it is hot & dry west of the Continental Divide with wildfires, intense heat, very low humidity & Santa Ana winds in southern California.

Cooler weather will come in successive waves late September to October each one more potent than the previous.

Some 30s are possible for lows here as we end September & move into early October.

Mid October looks warmer & drier than normal (wetter if we get a hurricane on the Gulf Coast that comes north with lots of rainfall, however................that would be the fly in the ointment).

Latter October looks cooler than normal with normal rainfall, while early November looks much warmer & wetter than normal.

In terms of timing out frosts & freezes here.

First patchy frost with lows 35-39 may occur in the September 30-October 2 time frame.

First freeze of 29-32 may occur closer to October 20 with killing freeze (20s) closer to October 25.

That's what the analog data points to anyway.

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