Much of the area is "Abnormally Dry" or in D0 status (except far northwest, far northeast, southeast & southwest.
Lake Freeman levels are dropping rapidly. Much of the water that flows into the Tippecanoe River, & thus the lake, comes from feeder streams in northern White, largely northern Cass County, as well as southeastern Pulaski & Fulton counties. Northeast White & northern Cass is the biggest contributer, though. Water also feeds the lake from Marshall County.
This pocket has had 75% of the normal rainfall overall June 1-August 31.
However, 70% of that rainfall occurred in a very wet period June 25-July 5.
Since that time, there has been much less run-off.
It has been especially dry in that area over the past 30 days. Amounts have been mostly less than 1.50" in the green areas. North central Carroll County has the greatest rainfall deficits for the state of Indiana for the past 30 days with pocket of only 0.50" recorded.
Data from Midwest Climate Center shows that evaporation has far outpaced the amount of rainfall that has occur over a large area of central & northern Indiana to Illinois. Some sites have a 4-5" water balance deficit.
High-resolution data shows dry soils with vegetative stress in this particular zone, especially on the sandy soils of this area.
Warmer & drier than normal conditions will be persistent now to mid-October.
We do have about three brief cool snaps to mid-October, but warmth & significant evaporation will be dominant.
Lake Freeman water levels will continue to drop rapidly with this set-up.
Lows Thursday morning ran 51-55 & highs Thursday reached 75-79.
With the wind over the past two days & dew points in the 40s, there was been significant evaporation of any rainfall received over the past week or two.
Thick wildfire smoke aloft will turn skies pale & hazy with time Friday & through Saturday. This smoke will NOT mix down to the surface & will be several thousands of feet up from wildfires in the West.
Friday looks smoky with sunshine & highs 78-85, followed by 57-65 Friday night. Wind will be light from the south Friday after some patchy shallow fog in the morning, mainly near & around water & in low-lying areas.
Saturday looks smoky with sunshine & windy weather. Southwest winds will run 20-35 mph with highs 87-91, but the humidity will be low.
Sunday looks more humid with highs near 90 to 95 with southwest wind 10-20 mph. Heat indices will reach 92-99 after lows of 65-70 in the morning.
Monday looks breezy with 91-95 with heat indices 93-99 & southwest winds 15-25 mph with sunshine.
Tuesday is dry with sunshine until some isolated storms arrive late in the evening to the night. After highs of 91-96 with heat indices of 94-100 & southwest winds 15-25 mph, lows Tuesday night will only drop to 68-73.
Wind fields suggest any isolated storms could pose isolated severe risk
As for Wednesday, a few storms are possible in the morning as the surface cold front moves southwest & wind goes to the north & northeast. It will be cooler at 82-86 & it looks to turn less humid.
Thursday looks good with sunshine & some clouds with morning low of 57-62 & high of 81-86.
Thursday night looks partly cloudy & warmer with wind turning to the southeast then south with lows of 63-67.
We then heat back up that next Friday.
It will be hot in South Bend as the Boilermakes take on the Fighting Irish September 18 with 94 here & 92 there with southwest wind 15-30 mph. Heat index in South bend may reach 96.
High/Morning Low...Date, Conditions
SEPTEMBER 17-OCTOBER 4:
90/65....Sept. 17, Fri. Pt. Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, NOT Humid, (Dew Points 55-61), S Wind 5-15 mph....Records: 93-1891
94/68....Sept. 18, Sat. Mostly Sunny, Humid (Dew Points 65-70), Heat Index to 100, SW Wind 15-30 mph.....Records: 93-1891
94/73...Sept. 19, Sun. Mostly Sunny, Humid, Heat Index to 100, SW Wind 20-30 mph...Records: 94-1891
94/75...Sept. 20, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SSW Wind 15-30 mph, Heat Index to 102, Isolated Shower/Storm (20%)...Records: 95-1940
88/75...Sept. 21, Tue. Showers/Storms Likely with SLIGHT RISK Parameters for Severe...Records: 95-1940
71/55...Sept. 22, Wed. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 15-25 mph.
72/43...Sept. 23, Thu. Partly Cloudy, NNE Wind 10-15 mph.
74/44...Sept. 24, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E to SSE Wind 5-15 mph.
83/57...Sept. 25, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph.
87/66...Sept. 26, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms, SW Wind 20-30 mph.
74/57...Sept. 27, Mon. Partly Cloudy, NE Wind 5-10 mph.
72/46...Sept. 28, Tue. Sunny, E Wind 2-5 mph.
77/46...Sept. 29, Wed. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10-15 mph.
82/54...Sept 30, Thu. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.
83/60...Oct. 1, Fri. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph.
86/65...Oct. 2, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.
82/66...Oct. 3, Sun. Mostly Cloudy, Some Sct'd Showers/Storms Possible, SSW 10-20 mph.
74/57...Oct. 4, Mon. Becoming Partly Cloudy, W Wind 10-15 mph.
73/52...Oct. 5, Tue. Partly Cloudy, WNW 10 mph.
72/45...Oct. 6, Wed. Mostly Sunny, W 10 mph.
71/45...Oct. 7, Thu. Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 5-10 mph.
74/42...Oct. 8, Fri. Mostly Sunny, E Wind 5 mph
78/46...Oct. 9, Sat. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 10 mph
83/52...Oct. 10, Sun. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 15-30 mph...Records: 88-1938
85/63...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-40 mph......Records: 86-2010