September 10, 4:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Summer heat & humidity, but a big change late in the month.

Posted: Sep 10, 2019 1:58 PM
Updated: Sep 10, 2019 4:29 PM

Above normal mean temperatures should dominate now to September 20.

A large area of well-above normal rainfall will occur north of our area.

Thinking north part of viewing area will have above normal rainfall with normal rainfall elsewhere now to September 20.

A few isolated to spotty storms are possible Wednesday with sun/clouds hot, humid weather after a muggy night.

These would tend to fire on outflow boundary from morning storms near Chicago to South Bend sinking soutward & then moving back northeastward in strong flow from the south-southwest.

Sounding shows good wind fields in high CAPE environment for isolated severe.  However, I think coverage may only run 25-30% at best & there are signs of capping issues.  This will further limit storm coverage from exceeding 25-30%.

Right now, looks like anytime during the day could feature a few of these spotty storms.

Other than an isolated storm, Thursday looks just hot & humid with sunshine.

Note the severe weather west & northwest of us at 8 p.m. Thursday evening at the end of the loop.

Line of storms with severe weather will continue to work eastward Thursday night.

It appears line will pass through our viewing area in the 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. time frame, based on the latest information.  This is subject to change.

It looks to be coming through in a weakening fashion as better wind fields aloft migrate northeast of the line as it moves eastward.  CAPE will wane some too with potential of some capping.

It appears that line may re-fire southeast of our area Friday morning-afternoon from Muncie to Vincennes & sink southeastward.

We look to turn a bit less humid & cooler with time Firday with west to west-northwest wind with sunshine.

45

Front will begin to move back north as a warm front late Saturday.  So, after lows of 55-60 Friday night & highs 77-83 Saturday, clouds may begin to increase later Saturday.

Meanwhile, outbreak of some severe supercell storms may take place from Iowa to Minnesota & Wisconsin Saturday evening-night.

This may congeal into a complex of storms & race through Wisconsin to Michigan to far northern Indiana.  Thought it will weaken there, it could still produce isolated severe weather, mainly hail on the tail end as it becomes elevated north of the warm front.

Here, looks like warm front will move through area Saturday night & keep much of the rain/storm active north of us Sunday.

That is the case right now, but I'd like to keep a 25% potential of storms for Sunday in case this shifts slightly south (due to warm front slowing a bit).

It looks very warm to hot & humid Sunday with sun/clouds.

There is increasing agreement that a landfalling tropical system will occur on the Gulf Coast, most likely between New Orleans & the Florida Panhandle area.

That disturbance is currently in the Caribbean, so we will wait & see & monitor.

Whether it moves far enough north to bring rain to southern Indiana or as far north as our area remains to be seen.

Overall, next week looks above normal temperature-wise & if this system affects our area or another part of Indiana, data suggests it would be around Tuesday.

The Canadian model suggests a cold front will pass through our area early next week with a few storms & it will sort of whisk it away to the northeast away from Indiana.

A couple of strong cold fronts & upper troughs should swing through our area around September 20-22 with widespread rain & storms.  First cold front & upper trough may have some severe weather with it here.

Meanwhile, a major hurricane may be in the Atlantic, but it looks more like an effect on the far east Caribbean & just west of Bermuda as our troughs push it away from headed for the U.S. or western & central Caribbean.

If there is a delay in our cold fronts & trough, then there is greater potential of a U.S. direct impact.

That does not look to be the case at the moment, however.

Note how upper troughiness dominates September 22-27 period with clouds, some showers/t'showers at times & below normal temperatures.

Temperatures below normal late September:

This should continue into early October.

With strong Canadian surface high expected to trail the troughiness & instability showers/t'showers with cool weather, a couple of nights with lows int he 30s to 40 are possible near October 1-2. 

Mid-October should turn above normal temperature-wise.

Latter October averages cooler than normal.  This could signal killing freeze at that time with 25-30.

Latest analog suggests a 32 for the area around October 20, then the killing freeze around October 26.

We will see.  I just averaged up similar years & then merged it with what some long-range data is honing in on with climatology weight thrown in to the mix.

There is a trend for above normal rainfall in the Lower Mississippi Valley & along the Gulf Coast & in the Pacific Northwest & normal to slightly below normal precipitation here.

There are trends, per analog, that Halloween to the first 4 days of November will be unseasonably warm with risk of storms.

I analogged the 1870-present data set & then compared long-range & climatology & found a greater potential of 70s with above normal rainfall & storminess (severe risk).

Cooler weather follows with lows in the 30s & highs in the 50s November 5-8.

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