September 1, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on Dorian & how what is happening here will affect the track.

Posted: Sep 1, 2019 9:19 PM
Updated: Sep 1, 2019 11:00 PM

Highs today ran 71-77 with some morning-midday showers/storms giving way to a nice afternoon-evening with only a few isolated t'showers in the west & southwest this evening.

There were multiple reports of funnels in eastern Illinois this evening from Vermilion to Effingham County.  A touchdown occurred in Cumberland County, Illinois, near Mattoon, according to the National Weather Service in Lincoln (after spotter video was reviewed).

I did receive a couple of reports of a funnel west of Marshfield in Warren County this evening.

Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Dorian continues to devastate the Bahamas. 

NAM model shows Dorian making a move more north-northwest then northwest by Tuesday night.

Key to this turn will be upper trough & strong cold front here in our area.

If it slows, there is a greater chance it will get much closer to Florida or make a landfall.

Some models have it ride the coast, others have Florida landfall.

Note the mid & upper trough that will dive southward & turn hurricane north to northeast.

Again, key to the turn is the trough here.

It is that trough & cold front that may bring some severe weather here.

Line(s) of storms are possible here with some scattered severe weather.

Main threat is wind.

Timing would be 6 p.m.-11 p.m.

Upgrade to SLIGHT RISK for the area seems likely per latest data. 

This, after areas of dense fog tonight, sunshine & some clouds with 80s tomorrow, followed by windy, very warm, humid weather with 85-90 Tuesday (heat indices 89-94).

A few isolated showers at peak heating are possible Friday-Sunday (as cumulus/stratocumulus build & cover sky) as a cold front passes & upper trough with shortwaves pivots through.

This means cold air aloft with clouds developing daily with brisk northwest winds & clearing at night.

Watch this interesting thing occur!  Note the remnants of Hurricane Juliette in the Pacific & watch how the remnants merge with an upper trough in the Pacific with a jet streak, forming an unusually-early powerful Fall storm around San Francisco that will then pivot through Nevasa, Idaho & into Montana.

Rain & wind may affect central California as a late October- or November-like storm there.

Also................a mid-September hurricane may make landfall at Baja California with the remnants tracking through Arizona to Colorado to Nebraska.  The moisture will fuel rounds of showers & storms in the Plains into our area.

This, combined with the big storm from the combo of the upper trough & Juliette may bring quite a bit of severe weather to the Plains & even some severe weather into our area.

A fall-like, strong, dynamic storm system, it will then track eastward & bring a brief shot of cool air into the area.  Lows of 39-46 are possible with highs in the 60s to 70 for a day or two after heat & humidity for several days prior in mid-September.

However, we should heat back up after that to above normal temperatures again.

Preliminary data shows the best severe risk southern Minnesota to northern Missouri.

IR satellite showing potential severe storms Wisconsin to our viewing area, but ours does not look quite as intense as areas to the west.

Regardless, it bears watching.

That system will turn this....................(below normal temperatures)................in early September........

..............to this! (above to well-above normal temperatures)...........in mid-September..........

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Rainfall ahead.
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