September 1, 2:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest Labor Day outlook, NHC Dorian forecasts & another look to October.

Posted: Sep 1, 2019 12:52 PM
Updated: Sep 1, 2019 4:49 PM

Yesterday's high of 74 at the Purdue Airport & 74 at WLFI were the coolest high temperatures since June 17.

With clouds & some sun, we saw a few isolated showers & sprinkles & east-northeast winds with rather low humidity.

Today, a round of showers & some storms has been passing through part of the area this morning to midday north of the warm front with as much as 1.52" of rainfall in southern Warren County.  I have measured 0.62" at the WLFI ob site.

The highest rainfall total in Greater Lafayette has been 0.92" at Miami Elementary on the southeast side of the city of Lafayette.

The northern half of the area has seen much less than the south with totals of only trace-0.20". 

The highest totals are in the southwest part of the area.

Rain continues to pull away.

Some pockets of clearing area occurring behind the rain in our northwestern counties & over parts of eastern & central Illinois.

Temperatures vary in our area from 72 where sun is appearing to 63 where it is still raining.

I should have stuck with what I was originally thinking for highs today in the 70s, but bumped up to 78-85 due to model consistency of warm regime with warm front moving through area.

We will fall short of the 78-85 projection today.

69-76 will suffice with lots of clouds & some sun in places.  I kept the wind out of the east, since we will tend to be north of the warm front much of the day.

A couple/few isolated showers are possible this evening, otherwise, the main area of any rainfall will exit & we will dry out.

Temperatures will not change much tonight with lows 64-67 as warm front moves northward & winds turn to the southeast & then south, but will be light.  Some patchy to areas of fog could develop with partly cloudy skies.

Labor Day looks summery with sunshine & a few clouds with highs 84-88 with the humidity making it feel more like 89-94.

Winds look light, so it will be a bit hot & a bit stifling.

Good day for a cook-out or the pool!

Quite a bit of severe weather will develop well north of our area with line of storms reaching northern Illinois by mid-morning Tuesday.

After 64-68 Monday night with mostly clear skies, Tuesday looks mostly sunny & windy with highs 88-90 with southwest winds to 30 mph with heat indices of 91-95.

There has been a trend for a week to keep the main severe risk well north of our area as the leftovers of any storms coming in Tuesday night.

However, some new data is suggesting an earlier arrival of the strong upper trough & cold front just after peak heating in our area Tuesday.

It also suggests that the stronger wind fields for organized severe storms that looked to stay well north of us tracking near or over the area.

This is resulting in a new trend to bring a line of severe storms in & through our area in the 7 pm-10 pm time frame Tuesday evening.

We will monitor, as additional changes to this forecast are possible.

SPC does bring the MARGINAL RISK along & north of a Boswell to Brookston to Grissom corridor, but keeps the SLIGHT RISK north.  If the new data does indeed verify, then we are in-store for SLIGHT RISK (some parameters suggest ENHANCED even) for Tuesday evening.

Again, we will monitor.

It is amazing how CRITICALLY IMPORTANT this upper trough & cold front in our area is.  It is the biggest influencer of Hurricane Dorian's track.

A catastrophic, historic, Category 5 storm, it will completely devastate the Bahamas.

KEY is:

Will it make a complete landfall in Florida........Georgia......South Carolina??

Our weather up here with these steering currents means everything on whether it is a glancing blow to the U.S., a major, close side-swipe of the Southeast U.S. or one or two landfalls....or three before going back out into the ocean.

NAM model still does not have a Florida landfall, even by early Tuesday night, but a catastrophic Category 3-5 storm for the Bahamas for multiple days.

With this track, some outer squalls will being severe t'storms with severe gusts & isolated tornadoes to Florida.  Also, sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph are still likely on the far East Coast of Florida from the hurricane.

Note the massive area of hurricane-force sustained winds (tan-brown):

GFS model tends to show it just skimming the Florida & Georgia coasts, but big impact as a Major hurricane at Myrtle Beach, then a landfall in North Carolina with Category 4 near Myrtle to 3 in North Carolina.

It is then projected to get pushed out to sea, but tropical storm continues could batter Delaware.

NHC official forecast is similar in many respects to these projections.

Again, our trough & cold front will mean so, so much to the track.

It still looks like MUCH cooler weather for late week. 

A few isolated showers are possible Friday-Sunday of next weekend with clouds bubbling up daily with cold air aloft of an upper trough swinging through area with multiple shortwaves. 

Friday-Sunday look pretty breezy as well, with unseasonably cool weather making it feel like early October, not early September.

The unseasonable chill with an early season frost possible from the Dakotas to Nebraska! 

Temperatures may run as much as 28 degrees below normal there!

Here, looks like up to 20 degrees below normal.

Monday, September 9 looks mostly sunny, however after a very cool Sunday night-early Monday morning.

Daily highs/morning lows for the viewing area as a whole:

Wednesday:  70-76

Thursday:  69-75/45-52

Friday:  67-77/45-52 (25%)

Saturday:  64-71/47-54 (25%)

Sunday:  65-70/46-54 (20%)

Monday, September 9:  70-75/40-45

BIG CHANGE in mid-September with widespread above normal temperatures.

We may litterally go from lows of 40-45 to highs of 85-90 in a week. 

Also, heat indices may reach 90-94.

The overall trend for mid-September is warmer, wetter & humid with even storminess at times.

Highs in the 80s (to even 90) are likely with lows in the 60s to even near 70.

There is a trend to keep an overall warmer than normal trend going well into late September.

Pattern shows up well with upper ridge in Southeast, stalled front Colorado to Michigan.

We are looking wetter than normal mid to late September.

Note the wetter than normal pattern from the Florida Keys to south Texas.

This is a good pattern for hurricanes to be pulled toward the U.S. & Gulf of Mexico.

Far south Florida to south Texas will need to be monitored for hurricane mid to late September in this pattern.

Remnants' moisture would likely be pulled into the Plains, in addition to Pacific hurricane moisture pulled into the Plains.

This could lead to an area of especially-enhanced rainfall from New Mesico to the Panhandle ot Oklahomna to Kansas, Missouri & Iowa. 

However, there is still a trend to bring cooler than normal weather in here to end September & move through early October.

Early October looks drier than normal with a period of cool, tranquil weather. 

Given the trend of below normal, frost seems reasonable in early October.

Area of concern for tropical development will shift to the Bay of Campeche & deep in the southern Caribbean.

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