September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New update ahead!

Posted: Sep 23, 2019 2:01 PM
Updated: Sep 23, 2019 11:30 PM

Highs today were much cooler at 72-76 with breezy conditions & lowering humidity.

Lows tonight will drop to 46-51 with patchy, shallow fog.  It will tend to be the most dense (visibility 0.25 mile or less) along rivers, creeks, in river & creek bottoms, around ponds & lakes & in just lowland areas in general.  It may only be around 80' thick in some places, but be very dense. 

Highs of 75-80 are likely Tuesday with sunshine with some patchy cloudiness at times.  Calm winds will go to the southwest at 8-16 mph.

Clouds will increase tomorrow night with lows of 55-60.

A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers are possible Wednesday morning & again Wednesday afternoon with a mix of sun & clouds with strong southwest to west winds at 15-30 mph.

Highs will run 75-80.

AM:  Few isolated to spotty showers pass, then fade away.

PM:  A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers pop on the actual cold front.

Coverage with any of the two waves will only run 20-30% it appears.

Cool Canadian surface high Thursday with lots of sun & 68-75 with winds going light after 48-54 in the morning.

Cold front begins to move back northward as a warm front Thursday night. 

We may drop to 50-56, then rise to 55-60 late as clouds increase & calm winds turn to the southeast, then south.

Note the showers/storms popping west of our area along & north of the warm front on nose of strengthening low-level jet Thursday night over Iowa.

Note the heavy rainfall & storms northwest & west of our area along & north of the front Friday & into Friday night.

Here, we should see some scattered storms Friday, but the heaviest should remain to our northwest & west.

Highs should run 77-83 northwest to southeast with southwest to south winds at 10-20 mph with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday night looks warm & humid in our area with lows 64-68.

We may still have a few showers & storms around Friday night, mainly over the northwest half of the viewing area.

Scattered showers & storms are possible Saturday along & north of the front draped along a Danville, IL to Rochester, IN line.

Highs may vary from 69 in the north to 82 in the south.

Impressive early-season snowstorm to blizzard will get going in the Rockies with severe storms breaking out in the Dakotas.

Some severe weather may occur Nevada to Utah in the form of a fast-moving squall line.

Front should surge back north Sunday, bathing us in temperatures of 82-86 with a scattering of storms with muggy dew points of 70-72.  These scattered storms should occur on the leading edge of strong warm & high dew point advection from the Gulf of Mexico (with a deep subtropical Pacific element).

An all-out snowstorm to even blizzard will be underway from Washington & Idaho to Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, while severe storms should occur from the Dakotas to Minnesota & Iowa.

One big snowstorm will pivot into central Manitoba & outrun the record cold.

Meanwhile, our scattered storms of Sunday on the leading thrust of the warm & very humid air advection will move into Ontario & Michigan.

We look dry, breezy to windy & very warm to hot with highs 87-90 with heat indices 93-96.

Flooding, severe storms should blow up & train from Kansas to Iowa to Wisconsin.

This is a farmer's worst nightmare in Iowa & Wisconsin as flooding rainfall inundates a corn & soybean crop with one weather issue after another (floods & late planting to flash drought in some areas & flooding in other areas recently, to now Fall flooding.

Pacific tropical systems & Gulf moisture will feed the rainfall.

Bad situation looks to set up Tuesday-Tuesday night west of our area from Texas to Wisconsin with flooding rains as torrential, even severe, storms train over the same areas.  Very impressive rainfall totals are possible & flooding may become a national story as upper ridge in the Southeast & Arctic high the Rockies block system in.

Heavy snowfall will fall in the Rockies to Nebraska & the Black Hills.

We look very warm to hot, windy & muggy with highs near record warm levels at 88-91 with heat indices 93-96.  Overnight lows will be near record warm at 70-73.

I am forecasting 90 for Greater Lafayette Tuesday.  The record is 92 set in 1897 (records back to 1879).

Big extremes from record heat in the Southeast & record cold in the West.

Rain & storms are possible late Wednesday to Thursday morning.  It is not out of the question that we see a couple severe storms, but it does not look like anything widespread at the current point.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given that connection to very deep tropical moisture in the Pacific & Gulf (with very active tropics).

Rainfall may depart Thursday, October 3 as much cooler air comes in.

Strong Canadian high will come in with strong northerly winds & falling temperatures.

Timing of the big trough exiting our area, any secondary cold front & that strong Canadian high will be important to guiding a potential tropical or hurricane (at the time unclear what it will be) moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

We look below normal temperature-wise & dry in early October.

Strong surface high will tend to guide tropical storm or hurricane westward toward Texas, but there are still a lot of questions about storm strength & just where EXACTLY it will track.

So, thoughts are that it will make a Texas or northern Mexico landfall.

Warmer weather should overspread area as we approach mid-month.

Above normal temperatures & southwest winds will return.  However, unless something random changes with the tropical system track, we look quite dry for the chilly period to mid-month.

Thoughts are that we get a couple of cold fronts in the October 18-21 time frame with one producing some severe weather, followed by our first freeze, then a big warm-up for late October.

Warmth should last into early November with wetter, stormy pattern, then below to well-below normal temperatures latter November with some very minor snow.

Mild weather should return in early December with a nice respite from cold with nice weather.

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