September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New update ahead!

Posted: Sep 23, 2019 2:01 PM
Updated: Sep 23, 2019 11:30 PM

Highs today were much cooler at 72-76 with breezy conditions & lowering humidity.

Lows tonight will drop to 46-51 with patchy, shallow fog.  It will tend to be the most dense (visibility 0.25 mile or less) along rivers, creeks, in river & creek bottoms, around ponds & lakes & in just lowland areas in general.  It may only be around 80' thick in some places, but be very dense. 

Highs of 75-80 are likely Tuesday with sunshine with some patchy cloudiness at times.  Calm winds will go to the southwest at 8-16 mph.

Clouds will increase tomorrow night with lows of 55-60.

A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers are possible Wednesday morning & again Wednesday afternoon with a mix of sun & clouds with strong southwest to west winds at 15-30 mph.

Highs will run 75-80.

AM:  Few isolated to spotty showers pass, then fade away.

PM:  A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers pop on the actual cold front.

Coverage with any of the two waves will only run 20-30% it appears.

Cool Canadian surface high Thursday with lots of sun & 68-75 with winds going light after 48-54 in the morning.

Cold front begins to move back northward as a warm front Thursday night. 

We may drop to 50-56, then rise to 55-60 late as clouds increase & calm winds turn to the southeast, then south.

Note the showers/storms popping west of our area along & north of the warm front on nose of strengthening low-level jet Thursday night over Iowa.

Note the heavy rainfall & storms northwest & west of our area along & north of the front Friday & into Friday night.

Here, we should see some scattered storms Friday, but the heaviest should remain to our northwest & west.

Highs should run 77-83 northwest to southeast with southwest to south winds at 10-20 mph with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday night looks warm & humid in our area with lows 64-68.

We may still have a few showers & storms around Friday night, mainly over the northwest half of the viewing area.

Scattered showers & storms are possible Saturday along & north of the front draped along a Danville, IL to Rochester, IN line.

Highs may vary from 69 in the north to 82 in the south.

Impressive early-season snowstorm to blizzard will get going in the Rockies with severe storms breaking out in the Dakotas.

Some severe weather may occur Nevada to Utah in the form of a fast-moving squall line.

Front should surge back north Sunday, bathing us in temperatures of 82-86 with a scattering of storms with muggy dew points of 70-72.  These scattered storms should occur on the leading edge of strong warm & high dew point advection from the Gulf of Mexico (with a deep subtropical Pacific element).

An all-out snowstorm to even blizzard will be underway from Washington & Idaho to Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, while severe storms should occur from the Dakotas to Minnesota & Iowa.

One big snowstorm will pivot into central Manitoba & outrun the record cold.

Meanwhile, our scattered storms of Sunday on the leading thrust of the warm & very humid air advection will move into Ontario & Michigan.

We look dry, breezy to windy & very warm to hot with highs 87-90 with heat indices 93-96.

Flooding, severe storms should blow up & train from Kansas to Iowa to Wisconsin.

This is a farmer's worst nightmare in Iowa & Wisconsin as flooding rainfall inundates a corn & soybean crop with one weather issue after another (floods & late planting to flash drought in some areas & flooding in other areas recently, to now Fall flooding.

Pacific tropical systems & Gulf moisture will feed the rainfall.

Bad situation looks to set up Tuesday-Tuesday night west of our area from Texas to Wisconsin with flooding rains as torrential, even severe, storms train over the same areas.  Very impressive rainfall totals are possible & flooding may become a national story as upper ridge in the Southeast & Arctic high the Rockies block system in.

Heavy snowfall will fall in the Rockies to Nebraska & the Black Hills.

We look very warm to hot, windy & muggy with highs near record warm levels at 88-91 with heat indices 93-96.  Overnight lows will be near record warm at 70-73.

I am forecasting 90 for Greater Lafayette Tuesday.  The record is 92 set in 1897 (records back to 1879).

Big extremes from record heat in the Southeast & record cold in the West.

Rain & storms are possible late Wednesday to Thursday morning.  It is not out of the question that we see a couple severe storms, but it does not look like anything widespread at the current point.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given that connection to very deep tropical moisture in the Pacific & Gulf (with very active tropics).

Rainfall may depart Thursday, October 3 as much cooler air comes in.

Strong Canadian high will come in with strong northerly winds & falling temperatures.

Timing of the big trough exiting our area, any secondary cold front & that strong Canadian high will be important to guiding a potential tropical or hurricane (at the time unclear what it will be) moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

We look below normal temperature-wise & dry in early October.

Strong surface high will tend to guide tropical storm or hurricane westward toward Texas, but there are still a lot of questions about storm strength & just where EXACTLY it will track.

So, thoughts are that it will make a Texas or northern Mexico landfall.

Warmer weather should overspread area as we approach mid-month.

Above normal temperatures & southwest winds will return.  However, unless something random changes with the tropical system track, we look quite dry for the chilly period to mid-month.

Thoughts are that we get a couple of cold fronts in the October 18-21 time frame with one producing some severe weather, followed by our first freeze, then a big warm-up for late October.

Warmth should last into early November with wetter, stormy pattern, then below to well-below normal temperatures latter November with some very minor snow.

Mild weather should return in early December with a nice respite from cold with nice weather.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 31715

Reported Deaths: 1984
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9189533
Lake3299167
Cass15826
Allen127766
St. Joseph117034
Hendricks112367
Hamilton109992
Johnson1082104
Elkhart100827
Madison58258
Porter48721
Bartholomew48033
Clark45838
LaPorte40821
Tippecanoe3733
Jackson3611
Howard35618
Delaware35434
Hancock31927
Shelby31421
Floyd31338
Boone28235
Morgan26124
Vanderburgh2482
Montgomery22717
White2268
Decatur22431
Clinton2151
Noble18520
Grant18520
Harrison18521
Dubois1822
Greene16723
Warrick16426
Dearborn16221
Monroe16010
Henry1597
Vigo1477
Lawrence14322
Miami1391
Putnam1337
Jennings1274
Orange12422
Scott1183
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll922
Kosciusko861
Daviess8216
Steuben792
Newton7410
Wabash722
Wayne695
Fayette654
Marshall641
LaGrange602
Jasper561
Washington521
Fulton471
Rush452
Jay430
Jefferson411
Randolph403
Pulaski390
Clay391
Whitley392
Brown331
Sullivan321
Starke313
Owen311
DeKalb291
Perry270
Huntington262
Benton250
Knox240
Crawford230
Wells230
Tipton221
Blackford201
Switzerland190
Fountain182
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer161
Gibson142
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Vermillion90
Martin90
Union80
Pike60
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 80°
Kokomo
Clear
76° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 76°
Rensselaer
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Williamsport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 73°
Crawfordsville
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 70°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
74° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 74°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
73° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Some more storms ahead....
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