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September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New update ahead!

Posted: Sep 23, 2019 2:01 PM
Updated: Sep 23, 2019 11:30 PM

Highs today were much cooler at 72-76 with breezy conditions & lowering humidity.

Lows tonight will drop to 46-51 with patchy, shallow fog.  It will tend to be the most dense (visibility 0.25 mile or less) along rivers, creeks, in river & creek bottoms, around ponds & lakes & in just lowland areas in general.  It may only be around 80' thick in some places, but be very dense. 

Highs of 75-80 are likely Tuesday with sunshine with some patchy cloudiness at times.  Calm winds will go to the southwest at 8-16 mph.

Clouds will increase tomorrow night with lows of 55-60.

A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers are possible Wednesday morning & again Wednesday afternoon with a mix of sun & clouds with strong southwest to west winds at 15-30 mph.

Highs will run 75-80.

AM:  Few isolated to spotty showers pass, then fade away.

PM:  A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers pop on the actual cold front.

Coverage with any of the two waves will only run 20-30% it appears.

Cool Canadian surface high Thursday with lots of sun & 68-75 with winds going light after 48-54 in the morning.

Cold front begins to move back northward as a warm front Thursday night. 

We may drop to 50-56, then rise to 55-60 late as clouds increase & calm winds turn to the southeast, then south.

Note the showers/storms popping west of our area along & north of the warm front on nose of strengthening low-level jet Thursday night over Iowa.

Note the heavy rainfall & storms northwest & west of our area along & north of the front Friday & into Friday night.

Here, we should see some scattered storms Friday, but the heaviest should remain to our northwest & west.

Highs should run 77-83 northwest to southeast with southwest to south winds at 10-20 mph with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday night looks warm & humid in our area with lows 64-68.

We may still have a few showers & storms around Friday night, mainly over the northwest half of the viewing area.

Scattered showers & storms are possible Saturday along & north of the front draped along a Danville, IL to Rochester, IN line.

Highs may vary from 69 in the north to 82 in the south.

Impressive early-season snowstorm to blizzard will get going in the Rockies with severe storms breaking out in the Dakotas.

Some severe weather may occur Nevada to Utah in the form of a fast-moving squall line.

Front should surge back north Sunday, bathing us in temperatures of 82-86 with a scattering of storms with muggy dew points of 70-72.  These scattered storms should occur on the leading edge of strong warm & high dew point advection from the Gulf of Mexico (with a deep subtropical Pacific element).

An all-out snowstorm to even blizzard will be underway from Washington & Idaho to Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, while severe storms should occur from the Dakotas to Minnesota & Iowa.

One big snowstorm will pivot into central Manitoba & outrun the record cold.

Meanwhile, our scattered storms of Sunday on the leading thrust of the warm & very humid air advection will move into Ontario & Michigan.

We look dry, breezy to windy & very warm to hot with highs 87-90 with heat indices 93-96.

Flooding, severe storms should blow up & train from Kansas to Iowa to Wisconsin.

This is a farmer's worst nightmare in Iowa & Wisconsin as flooding rainfall inundates a corn & soybean crop with one weather issue after another (floods & late planting to flash drought in some areas & flooding in other areas recently, to now Fall flooding.

Pacific tropical systems & Gulf moisture will feed the rainfall.

Bad situation looks to set up Tuesday-Tuesday night west of our area from Texas to Wisconsin with flooding rains as torrential, even severe, storms train over the same areas.  Very impressive rainfall totals are possible & flooding may become a national story as upper ridge in the Southeast & Arctic high the Rockies block system in.

Heavy snowfall will fall in the Rockies to Nebraska & the Black Hills.

We look very warm to hot, windy & muggy with highs near record warm levels at 88-91 with heat indices 93-96.  Overnight lows will be near record warm at 70-73.

I am forecasting 90 for Greater Lafayette Tuesday.  The record is 92 set in 1897 (records back to 1879).

Big extremes from record heat in the Southeast & record cold in the West.

Rain & storms are possible late Wednesday to Thursday morning.  It is not out of the question that we see a couple severe storms, but it does not look like anything widespread at the current point.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given that connection to very deep tropical moisture in the Pacific & Gulf (with very active tropics).

Rainfall may depart Thursday, October 3 as much cooler air comes in.

Strong Canadian high will come in with strong northerly winds & falling temperatures.

Timing of the big trough exiting our area, any secondary cold front & that strong Canadian high will be important to guiding a potential tropical or hurricane (at the time unclear what it will be) moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

We look below normal temperature-wise & dry in early October.

Strong surface high will tend to guide tropical storm or hurricane westward toward Texas, but there are still a lot of questions about storm strength & just where EXACTLY it will track.

So, thoughts are that it will make a Texas or northern Mexico landfall.

Warmer weather should overspread area as we approach mid-month.

Above normal temperatures & southwest winds will return.  However, unless something random changes with the tropical system track, we look quite dry for the chilly period to mid-month.

Thoughts are that we get a couple of cold fronts in the October 18-21 time frame with one producing some severe weather, followed by our first freeze, then a big warm-up for late October.

Warmth should last into early November with wetter, stormy pattern, then below to well-below normal temperatures latter November with some very minor snow.

Mild weather should return in early December with a nice respite from cold with nice weather.

Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 52°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
44° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 39°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
43° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 43°
Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 52°
Danville
Partly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 43°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 45°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 45°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 41°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 41°
Logansport
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 41°
Dry, mild conditions continue.
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 665285

Reported Deaths: 12697
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion910581653
Lake48637887
Allen36050641
Hamilton32231398
St. Joseph30243514
Elkhart25484420
Vanderburgh21315382
Tippecanoe20185205
Johnson16425361
Porter16053276
Hendricks15899301
Clark12032182
Madison11779321
Vigo11672231
Monroe10394164
Delaware9879179
LaPorte9821198
Howard9095199
Kosciusko8588111
Bartholomew7504147
Warrick7445153
Hancock7439134
Floyd7255172
Wayne6654192
Grant6453157
Boone611991
Morgan6118126
Dubois5933112
Dearborn550669
Cass5477100
Marshall5446105
Henry542695
Noble510978
Jackson465567
Shelby462591
Lawrence4193113
Gibson404985
Harrison402764
Clinton397053
Montgomery390584
DeKalb387178
Knox357885
Miami357863
Whitley350638
Huntington348377
Steuben339855
Wabash333076
Putnam331960
Ripley327862
Adams325149
Jasper318443
White298052
Jefferson295974
Daviess285696
Fayette272656
Decatur271388
Greene262280
Posey261432
Wells258975
Scott251450
LaGrange242170
Clay241444
Randolph225877
Spencer219330
Jennings216344
Washington213027
Sullivan203639
Fountain202542
Starke189251
Owen183453
Fulton179637
Jay178528
Carroll176919
Perry173836
Orange171351
Rush165422
Vermillion161542
Franklin159735
Tipton149241
Parke140116
Pike128433
Blackford120627
Pulaski107544
Newton96732
Brown95240
Benton92413
Crawford92113
Martin80314
Warren75914
Switzerland7558
Union67510
Ohio54111
Unassigned0434

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