Highs today were much cooler at 72-76 with breezy conditions & lowering humidity.
Lows tonight will drop to 46-51 with patchy, shallow fog. It will tend to be the most dense (visibility 0.25 mile or less) along rivers, creeks, in river & creek bottoms, around ponds & lakes & in just lowland areas in general. It may only be around 80' thick in some places, but be very dense.
Highs of 75-80 are likely Tuesday with sunshine with some patchy cloudiness at times. Calm winds will go to the southwest at 8-16 mph.
Clouds will increase tomorrow night with lows of 55-60.
A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers are possible Wednesday morning & again Wednesday afternoon with a mix of sun & clouds with strong southwest to west winds at 15-30 mph.
Highs will run 75-80.
AM: Few isolated to spotty showers pass, then fade away.
PM: A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers pop on the actual cold front.
Coverage with any of the two waves will only run 20-30% it appears.
Cool Canadian surface high Thursday with lots of sun & 68-75 with winds going light after 48-54 in the morning.
Cold front begins to move back northward as a warm front Thursday night.
We may drop to 50-56, then rise to 55-60 late as clouds increase & calm winds turn to the southeast, then south.
Note the showers/storms popping west of our area along & north of the warm front on nose of strengthening low-level jet Thursday night over Iowa.
Note the heavy rainfall & storms northwest & west of our area along & north of the front Friday & into Friday night.
Here, we should see some scattered storms Friday, but the heaviest should remain to our northwest & west.
Highs should run 77-83 northwest to southeast with southwest to south winds at 10-20 mph with mostly cloudy skies.
Friday night looks warm & humid in our area with lows 64-68.
We may still have a few showers & storms around Friday night, mainly over the northwest half of the viewing area.
Scattered showers & storms are possible Saturday along & north of the front draped along a Danville, IL to Rochester, IN line.
Highs may vary from 69 in the north to 82 in the south.
Impressive early-season snowstorm to blizzard will get going in the Rockies with severe storms breaking out in the Dakotas.
Some severe weather may occur Nevada to Utah in the form of a fast-moving squall line.
Front should surge back north Sunday, bathing us in temperatures of 82-86 with a scattering of storms with muggy dew points of 70-72. These scattered storms should occur on the leading edge of strong warm & high dew point advection from the Gulf of Mexico (with a deep subtropical Pacific element).
An all-out snowstorm to even blizzard will be underway from Washington & Idaho to Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, while severe storms should occur from the Dakotas to Minnesota & Iowa.
One big snowstorm will pivot into central Manitoba & outrun the record cold.
Meanwhile, our scattered storms of Sunday on the leading thrust of the warm & very humid air advection will move into Ontario & Michigan.
We look dry, breezy to windy & very warm to hot with highs 87-90 with heat indices 93-96.
Flooding, severe storms should blow up & train from Kansas to Iowa to Wisconsin.
This is a farmer's worst nightmare in Iowa & Wisconsin as flooding rainfall inundates a corn & soybean crop with one weather issue after another (floods & late planting to flash drought in some areas & flooding in other areas recently, to now Fall flooding.
Pacific tropical systems & Gulf moisture will feed the rainfall.
Bad situation looks to set up Tuesday-Tuesday night west of our area from Texas to Wisconsin with flooding rains as torrential, even severe, storms train over the same areas. Very impressive rainfall totals are possible & flooding may become a national story as upper ridge in the Southeast & Arctic high the Rockies block system in.
Heavy snowfall will fall in the Rockies to Nebraska & the Black Hills.
We look very warm to hot, windy & muggy with highs near record warm levels at 88-91 with heat indices 93-96. Overnight lows will be near record warm at 70-73.
I am forecasting 90 for Greater Lafayette Tuesday. The record is 92 set in 1897 (records back to 1879).
Big extremes from record heat in the Southeast & record cold in the West.
Rain & storms are possible late Wednesday to Thursday morning. It is not out of the question that we see a couple severe storms, but it does not look like anything widespread at the current point.
Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given that connection to very deep tropical moisture in the Pacific & Gulf (with very active tropics).
Rainfall may depart Thursday, October 3 as much cooler air comes in.
Strong Canadian high will come in with strong northerly winds & falling temperatures.
Timing of the big trough exiting our area, any secondary cold front & that strong Canadian high will be important to guiding a potential tropical or hurricane (at the time unclear what it will be) moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
We look below normal temperature-wise & dry in early October.
Strong surface high will tend to guide tropical storm or hurricane westward toward Texas, but there are still a lot of questions about storm strength & just where EXACTLY it will track.
So, thoughts are that it will make a Texas or northern Mexico landfall.
Warmer weather should overspread area as we approach mid-month.
Above normal temperatures & southwest winds will return. However, unless something random changes with the tropical system track, we look quite dry for the chilly period to mid-month.
Thoughts are that we get a couple of cold fronts in the October 18-21 time frame with one producing some severe weather, followed by our first freeze, then a big warm-up for late October.
Warmth should last into early November with wetter, stormy pattern, then below to well-below normal temperatures latter November with some very minor snow.
Mild weather should return in early December with a nice respite from cold with nice weather.
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