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September 8, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

From Fall Coolness to Summer Heat & Humidity (& Eventually Storms)

Posted: Sep 8, 2019 1:14 PM
Updated: Sep 8, 2019 5:13 PM

Below normal temperatures continue.

After highs of 72-78 Friday & Saturday (& 46-55 Friday morning & 50-56 Saturday morning), we are mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers on this Sunday.

There have been some t'storms in central & southern Illinois as more unstable parcels are forced up & over warm front separating summer & fall (it is in the upper 80s with dew points of 68-72 as of 1 p.m. in southern Missouri, while it is 60s to 70 north of the front).

We have had some small pockets of 400 J/kg of elevated CAPE in our south with thunder southwest of Covington a bit earlier.

Scattered showers in the area now should decrease this afternoon with highs 67-74.  Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies should become partly cloudy with time.

Rainfall overage should go down from 50% to 20%.

By evening they should all be gone.

So, if you have evening plans, the weather should be good.

However, overnight, a few more showers, even an isolated t'shower may pop just north of the warm front.

So, 30% coverage seems reasonable for the overnight.

A few spotty showers/storms are possible tomorrow.  Coverage of 30% seems good right now (with partly to mostly cloudy skies, increasing dew points & highs in the upper 70s to the 80s).

Winds will turn from east-southeast to southeast to south-southeast to south.

It will feel like July Tuesday-Thursday!

Check out the dome of intense heat with temperatures above normal!

Check out the high dew points of 70-73 coming in!

Highs will run 89-92 Tuesday with strong southwest winds.  Combine those temperatures with dew points near 70 & heat indices will rise to 94-99.

A few isolated to spotty storms are possible Wednesday & Thursday with 20-30% coverage.

It appears that surface CAPE & us being on the edge of stronger wind fields aloft would bring about the need for a mention of an isolated severe storm or two. This, despite really good focusing mechanism/trigger for more more organized storms of higher coverage.

Highs should run 89-93 with partly cloudy skies & heat indices 94-101.

A line of severe storms should run from Wisconsin to Missouri, even Kansas by Thursday late afternoon after severe weather in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska to Iowa & Wisconsin Wednesday to early Thursday.

Line should move eastward, but weaken with time, affecting us Friday morning as a broken line of weakening showers/storms.

It looks cooler & less humid Friday-Saturday with highs of 77-81 with lows in the 50s.

However, Sunday should change with humid 80s & strong south winds returning.

It looks cooler & less humid Friday-Saturday with highs of 77-82 with lows in the 50s.

However, Sunday should change with humid 80s & strong south winds returning.

Severe weather is likely Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota to northeastern Iowa Sunday afternoon-evening-night.

Line of storms should develop, then weaken as it moves southeastward into northern Illinois & Indiana to southern Michigan by Monday morning.

A broken line ahead of this cold front should re-fire on the storms' outflow boundary either right over our a area or south of our area Monday midday-afternoon & then progress southward.

Dynamics & shear will be much less than that over Wisconsin the previous night, so any severe weather should be isolated..........where ever new storms exactly form.

Warmer & wetter than normal pattern will dominate mid-September, followed by cooler & drier pattern at the end of September to early October.

We will need to watch the southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development in early October.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Icy roads tonight as temperatures approach record cold levels.
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