September 8, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

From Fall Coolness to Summer Heat & Humidity (& Eventually Storms)

Posted: Sep 8, 2019 1:14 PM
Updated: Sep 8, 2019 5:13 PM

Below normal temperatures continue.

After highs of 72-78 Friday & Saturday (& 46-55 Friday morning & 50-56 Saturday morning), we are mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers on this Sunday.

There have been some t'storms in central & southern Illinois as more unstable parcels are forced up & over warm front separating summer & fall (it is in the upper 80s with dew points of 68-72 as of 1 p.m. in southern Missouri, while it is 60s to 70 north of the front).

We have had some small pockets of 400 J/kg of elevated CAPE in our south with thunder southwest of Covington a bit earlier.

Scattered showers in the area now should decrease this afternoon with highs 67-74.  Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies should become partly cloudy with time.

Rainfall overage should go down from 50% to 20%.

By evening they should all be gone.

So, if you have evening plans, the weather should be good.

However, overnight, a few more showers, even an isolated t'shower may pop just north of the warm front.

So, 30% coverage seems reasonable for the overnight.

A few spotty showers/storms are possible tomorrow.  Coverage of 30% seems good right now (with partly to mostly cloudy skies, increasing dew points & highs in the upper 70s to the 80s).

Winds will turn from east-southeast to southeast to south-southeast to south.

It will feel like July Tuesday-Thursday!

Check out the dome of intense heat with temperatures above normal!

Check out the high dew points of 70-73 coming in!

Highs will run 89-92 Tuesday with strong southwest winds.  Combine those temperatures with dew points near 70 & heat indices will rise to 94-99.

A few isolated to spotty storms are possible Wednesday & Thursday with 20-30% coverage.

It appears that surface CAPE & us being on the edge of stronger wind fields aloft would bring about the need for a mention of an isolated severe storm or two. This, despite really good focusing mechanism/trigger for more more organized storms of higher coverage.

Highs should run 89-93 with partly cloudy skies & heat indices 94-101.

A line of severe storms should run from Wisconsin to Missouri, even Kansas by Thursday late afternoon after severe weather in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska to Iowa & Wisconsin Wednesday to early Thursday.

Line should move eastward, but weaken with time, affecting us Friday morning as a broken line of weakening showers/storms.

It looks cooler & less humid Friday-Saturday with highs of 77-81 with lows in the 50s.

However, Sunday should change with humid 80s & strong south winds returning.

It looks cooler & less humid Friday-Saturday with highs of 77-82 with lows in the 50s.

However, Sunday should change with humid 80s & strong south winds returning.

Severe weather is likely Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota to northeastern Iowa Sunday afternoon-evening-night.

Line of storms should develop, then weaken as it moves southeastward into northern Illinois & Indiana to southern Michigan by Monday morning.

A broken line ahead of this cold front should re-fire on the storms' outflow boundary either right over our a area or south of our area Monday midday-afternoon & then progress southward.

Dynamics & shear will be much less than that over Wisconsin the previous night, so any severe weather should be isolated..........where ever new storms exactly form.

Warmer & wetter than normal pattern will dominate mid-September, followed by cooler & drier pattern at the end of September to early October.

We will need to watch the southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development in early October.

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