Lows this morning ran from 41-51 with coldest readings in the northwest & warmest in the southeast. There, thicker clouds held more heat in like a blanket.
A veil of high & mid clouds is sliding over the area & is thickest in our southeastern counties. This should thin northwest to southeast during the day & into tonight. Highs today will run in the 60s. These thicker clouds looked to stay more toward Indy & Terre Haute today, but have slid a little farther north with wave of low pressure on the front that went south of our area yesterday.
The strong southeastern ridge will not let the front drop south.
We will drop to the 40s tonight.
Cold front will work through tomorrow. I went for 66-73 tomorrow northwest to southeast as skies turn partly cloudy with front moving through. Winds will shift to the west & northwest late in the day.
For the Frenzy, we should drop into the 50s. With a breeze, it will make for a cool one.
Tomorrow night is getting more complicated than it should be. It looked cut & dry with high pressure, diminishing winds, clear skies & 37-44. Now, there is some data suggesting that it may be hard for the front to just blast through & high pressure move in. This is all due to the subtropical ridge acting as a block in the southeastern U.S.
So, there are signs that clouds may hang on, keeping us more like 45-50 rather than 37-44. I think for now, I am just going to raise the lows to slightly 38-46. 38 west, 46 east, 41 Lafayette for now.
Still looks like 60s Saturday, but it looks rather summery with 80-85 & high humidity much of next week, while it may snow in the Dakotas with record cold.
This is truly turning into an interesting late September to October period because if you look at the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere & compare it to years where it was the same, at the same time, you will see that it all promotes near/record cold in the central & eastern U.S.
Massive, monster blocking ridge over Alaska, monster blocking ridge near Greenland, record cold in central & southern Canada..........it should all mean an early-season frost/freeze for our area.
However, note how incredibly well the southeastern ridge holds the cold back like a dam. Very impressive! All analogs say this should not occur in such a pattern. The blocking & dislodging of cold should overcome it!
AO or Arctic Oscillation forecast ensembles say negative index by as much as -3. This says COLD.
So what is anchoring the warmth? Sea surface temperatures that are as much as 6 degrees above normal! Notice how waters are above normal along the entire East Coast, except where Florence tracked. Upwelling from the storm dropped temperatures to normal or just slightly below.
Just as unusual as the balmy water is the COLDER water in the north & eastern Atlantic Ocean. Water temperatures are as much as 4 degrees below normal.
Interestingly, though, that is only the half of it..............
Interestingly, sea surface temperature pulses in the Indian Ocean do much to influence the MJO. The rise in ocean temperatures above normal signal strong drying & subtropical ridging. Cooler than normal, upwelled water farther east signal heavy rainfall from a disturbance working east.
So we have been just hovering in MJO Phase 2, 3, 4, 5 phases & now with this, we are expected to shoot up to an 8 & 1.
This time of year, that promotes stronger southeastern ridging & warmth. However, I think that the warm waters off the East & southeast coasts are enhancing this. I say this because the AO & blocking all say COLD, COLD, COLD!!
It is a fight to see who wins. The weather is a complex blend of all of these factors around the world & who brings the most influence to affect our weather right here at home.
We have an abnormal amount of snow pack now so early in Canada, so once the southeast ridge breaks & we see the re enforcing effects from the Indian Ocean break, look out for a shot of very cold air for the time of year!
As for now, hot subtropical ridge will force our front back north, bringing a few showers Sunday, dry Monday, few showers & storms Tuesday, then dry weather Wednesday.
Temperatures will be warm & humid with gusty southwest winds & highs in 80-85 range with lows 65-70 & dew points in the 60s & 70s.
Note how the remnats of yet another Pacific hurricane move right over the area Wednesday night-next Thursday morning. Showers & storms are likely, but it looks like (right now) any severe weather should stay just northwest of our area.
Note the FOUR snow events from the Rockies to Northern Plains to Northern New England through October 12 alone. Note how the dam is attempted to be completely broken to let very cold air drop south, but the ridge exudes it's influence time & time again. There are two dislodges of cold air here through October 12 (not counting the one tomorrow night-Saturday), but impressive warmth tends to return every time.
With this temperature gradient & the deep moisture from Pacific hurricanes, not only may the snows be heavy north & northwest of our area, but severe weather events/outbreaks will likely occur in multiple occasions, mainly northwest of our area.
So, in a nutshell, count on oscillations between unseasonably cool & unseasonably warm weather with episodes of rain/storms. Rainfall will average above normal through October 12.
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