It has been sort of an interesting weather day.
I looked like a situation (per model analysis) of some spotty showers & t'showers late night through the morning, then a break, followed by three cluster of storms in the evening-early night-time hours (with locally-heavy rainfall in any of the rainfall morning to night-time).
One cluster looked to be north of us, another south (the most-potent one with bow of widespread damaging wind) & the third in the heart of the area. There was also, however, the potential of that third one in our area to be nothing more than a couple storms with much of the area being missed by that round of rainfall.
Shear/dynamics/instability showed some severe risk here, so Marginal to Slight Risk was issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
Well, from spotty showers/t'showers to three clusters of storms that is EXACTLY what happened. One went north, the worst one went south (lots of damage in southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky) & the third went right through much of our area (it just didn't produce any severe weather). Thing is, the cluster didn't pass evening to early night-time......................they passed this morning to midday. They basically moved through 9 hours ahead of schedule.
All the elements occured, but the timing was off a lot.
So, that said, where do we go from here? We are a lull at the moment with areas of dim sunshine & 70s, but thicker clouds are coming up from the south with a patch of light rain in our southeastern areas moving east (northwest edge of large bow of severe storms in central Kentucky)
Well, it appears, since the clusters went through in the morning, that new severe t'storms will evolve into bows & clusters along outflow boundary of the morning storms in central Missouri & southern Illinois to western Kentucky as heating occurs. That zone is favored for organized severe weather risk this afternoon-tonight. However, there is another area of severe risk of note. That would be in northern Illinois. There, storms may evolve into clusters or even a couple supercells with severe risk.
So, in terms of our area, my thinking is that our severe threat is much less than areas to our north & our south. For the viewing area, though the clouds may thin for better some sun this afternoon & we may very well see some showers & a couple of t'storms occur this evening to tonight, the severe threat is Marginal. So, that means perhaps an isolated severe storm is possible just because of the shear/dynamics in place, not necessarily loads of heating that will occur.
The Storm Prediction Center is with this idea by having Slight Risk (2 on Scale of 0 to 5) to our north & our south & a 1 here (Marginal or isolated severe risk). Like this morning, any rainfall could be locally-heavy (+2" in our southern areas this morning).
This is very typical summer situation of lots of moving parts that causes storms to blow up or speed up or slow down or affect one area & not another one nearby. I liken it to suds in a bathtub & you just take your finger & run it through them. Notice the random swirls, turns & gelling of the bubbles & suds. That is your quintessential summer-time regime & it is my job to figure out where the suds line up & where they develop into bigger bubbles & why that happens. It is not easy!
Any rainfall here will tend to become very spotty to isolated overnight to tomorrow morning with lows in the 60s after 70s to 80 today.
PROJECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE HRRR MODEL:
This intense, oppressive heat wave is still likely here late week as hot winds with an upper ridge ride over very wet ground in our area & to our southwest. This will load the surface with moisture. This, combined with "corn sweat" & lush vegetation from the rain means our area will see dew points of 78-81 over multiple days. This, combined with high temperatures of 90-95 (would be 95-100 or even higher if not for very wet ground around (especially downstream), given the high temperatures [heights] aloft with the ridge).
Although some relief is possible early next week, the heat may re-build again after that. Overall, the pattern looks quite a bit hotter than normal with high heat indices until bigger change occurs after around July 10.
CHECK OUT THESE VERY HIGH DEW POINTS VIA GFS MODEL!
Every now & then during this heat wave Thursday-Monday, a few spotty storms may pop or a "ridge rider" (complex or cluster of storms on edge of heat wave) may skim by with some severe risk. You can see weak front passing early next week that will bring some heat relief, followed by possible resumption of the heat wave with some spotty storms &/or "ridge riders".