Weather: Sort of interesting day, oppressive heat wave ahead

Viewer Submitted Photo: Cole Snider

There Are a Lot of Moving Parts Contributing to Today's Forecast....Which All Leads to More Severe Risk North & South of Us This Evening & Less In Our Area

Posted: Jun 26, 2018 2:08 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2018 3:29 PM

It has been sort of an interesting weather day. 

I looked like a situation (per model analysis) of some spotty showers & t'showers late night through the morning, then a break, followed by three cluster of storms in the evening-early night-time hours (with locally-heavy rainfall in any of the rainfall morning to night-time). 

One cluster looked to be north of us, another south (the most-potent one with bow of widespread damaging wind) & the third in the heart of the area.  There was also, however, the potential of that third one in our area to be nothing more than a couple storms with much of the area being missed by that round of rainfall.

Shear/dynamics/instability showed some severe risk here, so Marginal to Slight Risk was issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

Well, from spotty showers/t'showers to three clusters of storms that is EXACTLY what happened.  One went north, the worst one went south (lots of damage in southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky) & the third went right through much of our area (it just didn't produce any severe weather).  Thing is, the cluster didn't pass evening to early night-time......................they passed this morning to midday.  They basically moved through 9 hours ahead of schedule.

All the elements occured, but the timing was off a lot. 

So, that said, where do we go from here?  We are a lull at the moment with areas of dim sunshine & 70s, but thicker clouds are coming up from the south with a patch of light rain in our southeastern areas moving east (northwest edge of large bow of severe storms in central Kentucky)

Well, it appears, since the clusters went through in the morning, that new severe t'storms will evolve into bows & clusters along outflow boundary of the morning storms in central Missouri & southern Illinois to western Kentucky as heating occurs.  That zone is favored for organized severe weather risk this afternoon-tonight.  However, there is another area of severe risk of note.  That would be in northern Illinois.  There, storms may evolve into clusters or even a couple supercells with severe risk.

So, in terms of our area, my thinking is that our severe threat is much less than areas to our north & our south.  For the viewing area, though the clouds may thin for better some sun this afternoon & we may very well see some showers & a couple of t'storms occur this evening to tonight, the severe threat is Marginal.  So, that means perhaps an isolated severe storm is possible just because of the shear/dynamics in place, not necessarily loads of heating that will occur.

The Storm Prediction Center is with this idea by having Slight Risk (2 on Scale of 0 to 5) to our north & our south & a 1 here (Marginal or isolated severe risk).  Like this morning, any rainfall could be locally-heavy (+2" in our southern areas this morning).

This is very typical summer situation of lots of moving parts that causes storms to blow up or speed up or slow down or affect one area & not another one nearby.  I liken it to suds in a bathtub & you just take your finger & run it through them.  Notice the random swirls, turns & gelling of the bubbles & suds.  That is your quintessential summer-time regime & it is my job to figure out where the suds line up & where they develop into bigger bubbles & why that happens.  It is not easy!

Any rainfall here will tend to become very spotty to isolated overnight to tomorrow morning with lows in the 60s after 70s to 80 today.

PROJECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE HRRR MODEL:

This intense, oppressive heat wave is still likely here late week as hot winds with an upper ridge ride over very wet ground in our area & to our southwest.  This will load the surface with moisture.  This, combined with "corn sweat" & lush vegetation from the rain means our area will see dew points of 78-81 over multiple days.  This, combined with high temperatures of 90-95 (would be 95-100 or even higher if not for very wet ground around (especially downstream), given the high temperatures [heights] aloft with the ridge).

Although some relief is possible early next week, the heat may re-build again after that.  Overall, the pattern looks quite a bit hotter than normal with high heat indices until bigger change occurs after around July 10.

CHECK OUT THESE VERY HIGH DEW POINTS VIA GFS MODEL!

Every now & then during this heat wave Thursday-Monday, a few spotty storms may pop or a "ridge rider" (complex or cluster of storms on edge of heat wave) may skim by with some severe risk.  You can see weak front passing early next week that will bring some heat relief, followed by possible resumption of the heat wave with some spotty storms &/or "ridge riders".

West Lafayette
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 30°
Kokomo
Clear
31° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 25°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 26°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 30°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 37°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 28°
Frankfort
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 28°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
35° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 35°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
35° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 35°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 34°
A sunny and mild day is expected! Changes arrive through the weekend
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1112735

Reported Deaths: 17652
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1450832237
Lake721711247
Allen66684881
Hamilton50838487
St. Joseph49493645
Elkhart40079546
Vanderburgh34553496
Tippecanoe30654274
Johnson27559465
Hendricks26181383
Porter25556386
Madison21002452
Clark20146278
Vigo18966309
LaPorte17115261
Delaware16666300
Howard16666313
Monroe16556220
Kosciusko14216167
Hancock13061185
Bartholomew12894190
Warrick12152190
Wayne12036268
Floyd11968226
Grant11901242
Morgan10360192
Boone9815122
Noble9234122
Henry9142167
Marshall9062147
Dearborn8923100
Dubois8815139
Shelby8210129
Cass8134127
Lawrence8018185
DeKalb7761108
Jackson764093
Huntington7601113
Gibson7074118
Montgomery7052123
Harrison6923100
Knox6896115
Steuben665889
Miami6563111
Whitley655360
Putnam641584
Clinton624579
Wabash6182111
Jasper610892
Jefferson5796104
Ripley555893
Adams540581
Daviess5062117
Scott488280
Wells4814104
White475669
Greene4680100
Clay462862
Decatur4597110
Jennings448867
Fayette448396
LaGrange425990
Posey407544
Randolph3908107
Washington389856
Fountain373464
Fulton362474
Spencer360747
Starke353574
Owen351277
Sullivan347554
Orange329172
Jay328850
Rush306832
Carroll294239
Franklin290844
Perry288553
Vermillion282758
Tipton250066
Parke249630
Pike247244
Blackford221244
Pulaski208559
Newton181752
Brown176150
Crawford168829
Benton166517
Martin151820
Switzerland147212
Warren135316
Union121016
Ohio92113
Unassigned0592

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events