August 14, 11 PM Weather Update

Rainfall is ahead with two cooler days, then muggy, hotter weather.......Climate scientist Brian Brettschneider has an awesome on "lousy weather"

Posted: Aug 14, 2018 7:41 PM
Updated: Aug 14, 2018 11:17 PM

Check this map out from University of Alaska-Fairbanks climate scientist Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49).  I love data & numbers, so I am a huge fan of his & his maps.  He does awesome work!

You can see his criteria.  Basically if it is really hot, really cold or incredibly humid or rainy, that counts as an hour of lousy weather.

I would add overcast or mostly cloudy skies to the mix, however.  It would be interesting to see this map with that thrown in.

This map is a good measure of the kind of weather that keeps you indoors.

So, how do we fare in terms of lousy weather? 

We it is no more lousy here than it is in the rest of Indiana.  It may be colder up here in the state, overall (& springs later), but southern Indiana has more rainy days & often when we have a nice snow or it is just cold & partly cloudy, southern part of the state is gray & drizzly & raw.

Who has the least number of days of lousy weather?  You probably guessed right............southern California & New Mexico.  Of course, much of Hawaii has a low number of days with lousy weather. 

So, according to this, we get just as many days outside at Little Rock, Birmingham, Louisville, Kansas City or Dallas.

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If we are going to get to 90-95 with 100 to 107 heat indices for a couple of days, our opportunity to do it was today or over this weekend. 

That has been the trend for weeks for mid August with a quick, sudden burst of such heat. 

However, either today's warmth or the weekend's would be the only time until late August that we look to flirt with the extreme heat to the west & northwest.

The EKDMOSv2 ensembles show warmer than normal temperatures 9 of the next 15 days with 5 below & 1 normal (at the Purdue Airport).

Now it has it a little too warm for tomorrow & Thursday, but I favor these ensembles for the weekend & into next week.  I also favor it for the heat for a period late in the month (think it will be warmer).  I now doubt it will get to 94-99 (that heat will stay west of us), but 90s are possible late August to near Labor Day.

Even this weekend, GFS model has mid 90s southwest of us in Missouri & as high as 92 in parts of the Chicago area.

With the extreme, major drought in northern Missouri that continues to expand & all of the heat to the west, on paper, we should see more in the way of heat in a couple of rounds mid to late August, but it is just not transpiring yet.

In this chart, lets take the high temperatures August 14-28, for example.  This is shows the results of running a group of models over & over & over & blending all of the results.  This run was initialized this morning.

It shows the highest & lowest high daily temperatures shown in the outcomes of the model blend running.  The dots are the medians or most likely results.

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With patchy fog, lows this morning ran 58-66.  Afternoon highs reached 82-90, though the Crawfordsville Municipal Airport station seems to run about 3 degrees lower than other good personal stations around it.  The Campbell Ag Station unit reached 85 just west of Crawfordsville.  That number seems more likely.  It is an AWOS & not under the quality-control jurisdiction of the National Weather Service, so this would go under the advisement of the airport authority there.  I am going to ask about it.

Cumulus clouds are dissipating & high & mid level clouds are increasing & thickening from southwest & west to northeast & east over the viewing area.

The wildfire smoke, which is thousands of feet up, should exit the area as the mid & upper flow turns to the southwest.

Here is the projection for 7 a.m.....notice it in the process of exiting our area to the northeast.

With skies becoming mostly cloudy tonight, lows will run 67-71.

A couple isolated showers are possible.

Although there may be a few isolated showers around tomorrow morning before 9 a.m., the good news is that the heavier rainfall is slowing down.  It will likely not even get into our southwestern counties until after 9 a.m., but be overspreading a good chunk of the viewing area from southwest to northeast by noon or 1.

Waves of numerous showers & a few storms will pivot through tomorrow & into tomorrow night.

It appears an isolated severe storm or two is possible south & southeast of our area where better shear will exist & where there is better potential of a bit more sun.

Much of the area will not see 80 tomorrow.  A few of you in our eastern/northeastern areas will warm to 80-81, but the rest will stay in the 70s.

After a little dim sun before the first main wave of showers/storms come in, it will be very limited to non-existent the rest of the day.

A scattering of showers & a few storms are likely Thursday.  Some sun may poke through the clouds at times, bubbling them up into towers to produce the rainfall.

Highs will run 78-83, but it will be humid.  This, after morning lows at 66-70.

An an upper disturbance with some rather cold air aloft pivots through Friday, I kept the rainfall coverage at 40% & extended throughout the day (especially in the peak heating of the afternoon-early evening) with highs in the 80s with humid conditions.

Average total rainfall will run 0.60-1.50" for the area with a few areas seeing up to 2".

Patchy dense fog is possible Saturday morning, but I kept it dry with just cumulus clouds for now & very warm, muggy 80s.

Went for the same thing Sunday.

Showers & storms are likely Monday, especially in the afternoon to evening hours.  Wind fields & warm, unstable airmass ahead of the round of rainfall suggest some isolated severe risk.  A line of storms could form, but there is low confidence in the fine detals of this particular part of the forecast.  Stay tuned.

Highs will run in the muggy 80s.

Some lingering rainfall may last into Tuesday morning, followed by drier weather with still humid conditions & highs in the 80s.

Upper 70s to the 80s should dominate the Wednesday-Friday period of next week with dry weather.  Lows will run in the 50s & 60s.

I am still leaning on 90s for late August to around Labor Day with a hot upper ridge over the area.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
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Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Increasing Warmth & Humidity with Spotty Showers.
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